It Ain't Over - 5 More States Vote Today

(The cartoon above is by Matt Wuerker at Politico.com.)

Ever since Rick Santorum (aka Mr. Frothy) "suspended" his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, pundits (both in the mainstream media and on the internet) have been falling all over themselves to put the nominee's crown on the head of Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). But while Romney may well be the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, he hasn't done it yet. Here's the current delegate totals according to RealClearPolitics:

Mitt Romney...............683
Rick Santorum...............267
Newt Gingrich...............141
Ron Paul...............84

Since a candidate must have a majority of delegates to win (1144 delegates), we can see that Romney is only a little over halfway to having the required number of delegates. He still needs another 461 delegates. There are five more states that will vote today -- New York (95), Pennsylvania (72), Connecticut (28), Rhode Island (19), and Delaware (17). Romney is now favored to win all of those states. But even if he wins every single delegate from those states (231 delegates), that will just get him up to 914 delegates -- still 230 delegates short.

The campaign would then move on to North Carolina (55), Indiana (46), and West Virginia (31) on May 8th. Those states have 132 delegates, and if Romney wins all of them (which would only happen if the teabaggers and evangelicals have given up) then he will have 1046 -- 98 delegates short of the nomination. On May 15th, Nebraska (35) and Oregon (28) will vote. Winning all of those delegates (63 delegates) would put Romney at 1109 delegates.

That means even if he wins every single delegate between now and then, Romney could not amass the required number of delegates until at least May 22nd (a month from now) when Arkansas (36) and Kentucky (45) vote. If there is still considerable anti-Romney feeling out there, then the nominating race might not be over until Texas (155) votes on May 29th -- or even June 5th when California (172), Montana (26), New Jersey (50), New Mexico (23), and South Dakota (28) vote.

I know that most people, especially the Republican leadership, would like for this race to be over. But even in the best case scenario, where Romney wins every delegate, this nonsense won't be over for at least another month.