Can The Debate Help A Fading Willard ?

(The cartoon above is by Swedish cartoonist Riber Hansson at caglecartoons.com.)

Yesterday, I posted that the upcoming debate was critical for Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). People just don't like him very much, and since the party conventions he has been fading in the polls. And the more people learn about his policies (like tax cuts for the rich and abolishing Medicare), the more they move toward the president (in spite of the poor economy). This movement is verified by three new national polls:

RAND SURVEY
Obama...............50%
Romney...............43%

GALLUP POLL
Obama...............49%
Romney...............44%

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
Obama...............47%
Romney...............42%

And then we have these two new swing state polls:

DES MOINES REGISTER POLL (IOWA)
Obama...............49%
Romney...............45%

COLUMBUS DISPATCH POLL (OHIO)
Obama...............51%
Romney...............42%

And to make matters even worse, this new poll taken of women only, shows that Willard is trailing badly among females:

YWCA POLL
Obama...............49%
Romney...............31%

Unfortunately for Willard, it is unlikely that the debate will make much difference, for the following reasons:
* Studies have shown that the presidential debates rarely have much effect on the outcome of an election. Willard would have to hit one out of the park while the president badly stumbled (unlikely), and even that might not help much.
* Most people don't watch the debates. While the Kennedy-Nixon debates had Super Bowl-type numbers, the audience share has been dropping for modern TV debates. While the American population has doubled since those first TV debates, about the same amount of viewers are watching.
* This has been a very long campaign and most voters already feel like they know the candidates. Even among those who bother to watch, the debate is likely to just affirm their view rather than change it.

Willard needs a real game-changer, but the debate on Wednesday is not likely to produce that.