This is probably the final poll before election day on the statewide races in Texas. It is the latest University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll -- taken between October 10th and 19th of 866 likely Texas voters, and has a margin of error of about 3.6 points.
These numbers make it look pretty bad for Democrats. Texas Democrats knew it would be tough to elect some statewide candidates, but they thought (and I thought) the election would be a lot closer than this poll is showing. And it might well be closer.
Why do I say that? Because the hopes of Democrats rested with their statewide campaign to register new voters, and they were successful in registering hundreds of thousands of new voters. But this poll does not question registered voters -- just likely voters. That means they have tailored their counted responses to who they think will vote (i.e., a similar pattern of voting to the last couple of off-year elections in 2006 and 2010).
Are they correct in who they think will vote, or will a large number of new Democrats turn up at the polls. We won't know that until election day -- but I still think the election will be closer than this poll indicates.
"will a large number of new Democrats turn up at the polls"
ReplyDeleteProbably but will they have any IDs, one wonders?