How Long Before The Pardon Comes?

Another Republican bites the dust. This time it's White House insider "Scooter" Libby. Yesterday, Libby was found guilty of lying to a grand jury and obstruction of justice. I don't think the verdict really surprised anyone - his guilt was pretty obvious.

The only real questions are what will his sentence be, and when will Bush pardon him. The electronic media are fond of saying that he could get 25 years, but that is very unlikely. The media always wants to report the extremes. I think it's more likely he'll get less than 10 years - probably more like five.

But don't expect him to actually serve any real time. The right-wing noise machine will crank up to make the case for a pardon, and I expect Bush will cave in to them and pardon him. Bush has given the right-wing nuts everything else, so why would he hold out this time?

Their best argument is that Libby was just a "fall guy", thrown under the bus to save the necks of higher-ups (Rove and Cheney). While I think Libby was as guilty as hell and needs to serve some time behind bars, I have to admit the "fall guy" argument has some merit.

Even the Libby jury thinks this is the case. While they knew he was guilty, several said, "Where is Rove? Where is Cheney?" They knew who the guiltiest of all were, and they were not in that courtroom. They will never be punished for their crimes.

But as guilty as Libby is, I don't expect him to actually serve any time. He will probably delay his needed incarceration with an appeal bond and some fancy legal footwork, as the rich and powerful usually do. Then, Bush will issue a pardon.

My guess is that the pardon will come sometime this Fall. I'd love to hear what the readers think. When do you think the pardon will come?