Monday, November 23, 2020
The charts above are from the FBI website. They show the hate crimes committed in the United States in 2019. Those hate crimes topped 7,000 for the third year in a row (7,314 incidents with 8,812 victims -- with 51 fatalities). It was also the third year of the Trump administration. Considering how soft Trump has been of hate groups, I think there is a definite connection.
There is a belief among some on the extreme right that the 14th Amendment was just intended to recognize the citizenship of freed slaves, and does not extend to the children of non-citizen immigrants. Trump is one of those who believe this.
Aides say he is going to issue an executive order before leaving office that will end birthright citizenship. Most in the legal community agree that the order would be unconstitutional, and would be quickly overturned by our courts. But it looks like Trump will try it anyway, hoping that the right-wingers on the court will back him.
Here is part of how Brett Samuels reports this in The Hill:
The Trump administration has revived discussions around taking executive action targeting birthright citizenship in its final weeks before leaving office, according to two people familiar with the discussions.
Sunday, November 22, 2020
I just thought some of you might find this interesting. The charts (from the Labor Department) show the average official unemployment rate for each year of a president's term in office.
NOTE -- Trump's rate for 2020 is based on numbers through only October, and when November and December numbers come in could rise or fall.
Donald Trump continues to rant that the election was rigged and rife with fraud -- and most elected Republican officials are remaining silent. They are afraid that Trump supporters will punish them in a future election if they tell the truth -- that the election was not rigged, voting machines did not malfunction, and there was no widespread fraud.
I think their silence is a huge mistake, and it's one that could hurt them in future elections. Note in the chart above that nearly 3 out of 4 Republicans (73%) believe what Trump is telling them. They do not think the election was fair.
If you thought elections were not held and counted fairly in this country, wouldn't that affect your choice of whether to vote or not? What's the point of voting if you think an election is rigged and has widespread fraud?
And it wouldn't take many Republicans staying at home on Election Day to make a big difference, especially in swing states. If only 5% or 10% decided their vote didn't matter since the election is rigged, that could help elect more Democrats in those swing states (and maybe even in some red states).
The chart above reflects the results of a recent Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between November 15th and 17th of a national sample of 1,500 registered voters, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.
Donald Trump is refusing to concede the election. He continues to whine, lie, file lawsuits, and try to pressure election officials. But it is over, and everyone but Trump and his closest aides know that. They are already turning to Biden and making plans for his presidency.
Here is part of how writers at The New York Times describe it:
Inside the wrought-iron fences that surround the 18-acre White House complex, the 2020 election rages on, with President Trump angrily refusing to concede. But the rest of the world — and President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. — is moving on.
The leaders of Western Europe have called Mr. Biden, as has the president of the world’s rising superpower, Xi Jinping of China. PayPal’s chief executive extended his “warmest congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden, who will become the 46th president of the U.S.A.” The Boeing Corporation, which benefited from Mr. Trump’s demands for big-ticket defense items, issued a statement on Friday saying, “We look forward to working with the Biden administration.”
It is as if the vast machinery of diplomacy, business and lobbying has suddenly been recalibrated for the Biden era. Mr. Trump, by far the dominant world figure for the past four years, is increasingly treated as irrelevant.
Bank trade groups have begun meeting with Biden aides in anticipation of new fights over regulation. Foreign diplomats assuming a sharp turn in American foreign policy are retooling their agendas. Corporate executives, who are usually allergic to political statements, are saying out loud what most of Mr. Trump’s supporters have so far refused to acknowledge.
Saturday, November 21, 2020
The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll. They questioned 18,574 Republicans between December 30, 2019 and November 16th, 2020. The results are interesting, and show Trump has been a fair-weather friend for the network -- supporting them only when they say what he wants them to say.
Note that for most of that time period, the favorable ratings for Fox among Republicans has remained high, and right before the election (November 2nd), Republicans gave the network a favorable rating of about 67% (very favorable and somewhat favorable combined).
But on election night, Fox was one of the first networks to declare Biden had won in Arizona. That angered Trump, and he has repeatedly let his supporters know of his displeasure. It has had an effect. By November 16th, the favorable rating for Fox among Republicans had dropped to 54% -- a 13 point drop in about two weeks.
Fox depends on Republican viewers for its ratings. Will Trump keep up his war on the network? Will that start to hurt the network's ratings? Or will the network cave in and apologize to Trump to keep their viewers? It will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks.
Donald Trump is the biggest sore loser in this nation's history. Instead of conceding defeat and helping the incoming administration (as all presidents in the past have done), he has whined, lied, and even gone to court numerous times to have the election results overturned.
All of those efforts have failed, and many of his election attorneys have resigned. Trump has replaced them with the clownish and incompetent Rudy Giuliani -- a man who seems determined to completely destroy his already besmirched reputation and image.
On Thursday, Giuliani held a news conference, spewing lies and making outrageous claims for which he has no proof. Calling that "news" conference ludicrous would be a vast understatement.
The Republicans in Congress won't speak up to stop this ridiculous charade. But that is not true of everyone on the right-wing. The following is part of an editorial from the National Review -- the prestigious conservative magazine started by William Buckley.
Rudy Giuliani–led press conference at the RNC yesterday was the most outlandish and irresponsible performance ever by a group of lawyers representing a president of the United States.
If Giuliani’s charge of a “national conspiracy” to produce fraudulent votes in Democratic cities around the country wasn’t far-fetched enough, attorney Sidney Powell ratcheted it up with the allegation that Communist-designed election machinery was used to change the vote from a Trump landslide to a narrow Biden victory. An obvious question is why, if you can manipulate the vote count via machine, you’d need to bother with old-fashioned fraudulent ballots. Powell’s story is that the surprisingly strong Trump turnout “broke the algorithm” of the corrupted machines, and then the fraudulent ballots were desperately hauled in to make up the difference.
This is lawyering worthy of the comments section of .
If there’s serious evidence for any of this, Giuliani and co. need to produce it immediately. Waving around affidavits at a press conference without allowing anyone to examine them doesn’t count. . . .
This magazine has always taken voter fraud seriously, and we hope that any that occurred in this election is exposed and prosecuted. But it’s important to recognize that the broad contours of the 2020 presidential vote make sense. At the RNC press conference, Giuliani made much of how the count switched against Trump after he established initial leads on Election Night in key states. Yet this was expected and a function of the fact that same-day ballots strongly favoring Republicans were counted first, and early votes strongly favoring Democrats were counted last.
Across the country, the basic picture is the same, without any notable anomalies — Trump excelled in rural areas, got wiped out in urban areas but often by slightly smaller margins than in 2016, and lost soundly in suburban counties, which proved decisive. . . .
The most obvious way to prevent this travesty is for Republican state legislators to continue to reject it, the way almost all have done to this point. But they haven’t yet experienced a potential full-court press from Trump and his supporters (the Republican leaders of the Michigan state senate and house have been summoned to a White House meeting today). It’s also important for Republican senators to speak out against this effort and make it clear that they won’t stand for it when it comes time for Congress to consider electors. Finally, it’d be best of all if the president reconsidered going down this route.
He’s turning a narrow election defeat into a bid for infamy.
Friday, November 20, 2020
The two charts above (from Axios.com) show both the bad and the good news about the pandemic in the United States.
The bad news is that the virus is not decreasing in any state. It remained steady last week in three states, but is increasing in the other 47 states and the District of Columbia. And there is no reason to think it will subside anytime soon. It's going to be a tough winter.
The good news is that it looks like at least two vaccines will be ready soon, and may even be ready for mass consumption by early spring. And they seem to be very good vaccines -- over 90% effective. That would make them among the most effective vaccines available for any disease.
The Labor Department has released its unemployment statistics for the last week. In the week ending on November 14th, another 742,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits. That is 32,000 more than filed in the previous week, probably because the coronavirus is getting worse in every state now. It's too about three times the number that was filing each week before the Trump recession.
Here is the Labor Department's official statement:
In the week ending November 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 742,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 709,000 to 711,000. The 4-week moving average was 742,000, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 755,250 to 755,750.
The Democrats need someone popular who can shake up the race if they are to have a chance. And there just might be someone. Actor Matthew McConaughey says he might run for governor.
Here's how the Austin American-Statesman covers that possibility:
Oscar-winning Texas actor Matthew McConaughey says he might run for governor, but it would be “up to the people” to make it so.
McConaughey’s break out performance was as Wooderson in the 1993 coming-of-age movie “Dazed and Confused,” which was set in Austin. He won the Oscar for best actor the 2013 film “Dallas Buyers Club.”
Thursday, November 19, 2020
But I disagree. I actually think they did a pretty good job of letting us know what was happening with the electorate.
You must understand that polling is not an exact science. The best they can do is to give us a general impression of what the voters are thinking at a specific time. It's not a prediction, but a snapshot of voter feelings.
But, you might say that most major polls showed Biden with an 8 to 10 point lead over Trump, and as the image below shows, the actual margin turned out to be about 3.8 points (although it still could grow a little).
That is true. But remember, polling is not exact, and every responsible poll gives you a margin of error (the amount by which they could be wrong). For most polls that margin of error is between 3.5 and 5 points. Even the best polls could be wrong within that margin of error, and they know it, which is why they give you that.
An average of the major polls had Biden with about an 8 point lead, but if you consider the margin of error built in to those polls, it comes down to much closer to Biden's actual 3.8 point lead.
On this blog, I brought you a lot of different polls before the election. That's because the more polls you consider, the closer to the truth you will get. I will likely do the same in future elections.
Were the polls wrong? They showed us the voters were unhappy with Trump, and wanted a new president. That's exactly what happened.
The charts above reflect the results of a new Monmouth University Poll -- done between November 12th and 16th of a national sample of 810 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.