Sunday, October 25, 2020
In 2017, Trump’s first year as president, he averaged six claims a day. That jumped to 16 a day in 2018 and 22 in 2019. So far in 2020, the president has averaged 27 claims a day.
At his current pace, the president will surely exceed 25,000 claims before Election Day. In fact, he probably crossed that threshold this week.
As President Trump entered the final stretch of the election season, he began making more than 50 false or misleading claims a day.
These numbers are from The COVID Tracking Project.
The first number for each state is the number of cases they had on 10/17/20. The second number is the number of cases on 10/24/20 (one week later).
Alabama..........171662 -- 183276
Alaska..........11792 -- 13535
Arizona..........230407 -- 236772
Arkansas..........98422 -- 105318
California.........864455 -- 892810
Colorado..........83230 -- 91572
Connecticut.........62830 -- 66052
Delaware..........22942 -- 23847
District of Columbia..........16334 -- 16706
Florida..........752481 -- 776251
Georgia..........339384 -- 349605
Hawaii..........14047 -- 14669
Idaho..........51704 -- 57673
Illinois..........343390 -- 374907
Indiana..........145977 -- 160454
Iowa..........101103 -- 108514
Kansas..........70855 -- 76230
Kentucky..........86797 -- 95480
Louisiana..........177726 -- 182603
Maine..........5913 -- 6137
Maryland..........135127 -- 139487
Massachusetts..........142930 -- 149488
Michigan..........161105 -- 175612
Minnesota..........121090 -- 132122
Mississippi..........110006 -- 115088
Missouri..........154928 -- 167452
Montana..........22233 -- 27142
Nebraska..........55714 -- 62510
Nevada..........89652 -- 94812
New Hampshire..........9625 -- 10238
New Jersey..........218738 -- 227339
New Mexico..........35770 -- 40168
New York..........482891 -- 493832
North Carolina..........243725 -- 258292
North Dakota..........31261 -- 36874
Ohio..........180225 -- 195806
Oklahoma..........106503 -- 115685
Oregon..........39316 -- 41739
Pennsylvania..........180943 -- 192662
Rhode Island..........27691 -- 30118
South Carolina..........163214 -- 169341
South Dakota..........32611 -- 38141
Tennessee..........226139 -- 244087
Texas..........820563 -- 858071
Utah..........93297 -- 103117
Vermont..........1926 -- 2043
Virginia..........165238 -- 172372
Washington..........96894 -- 101345
West Virginia..........19801 -- 21712
Wisconsin..........175227 -- 205139
Wyoming..........8816 -- 10805
Virgin Islands..........1329 -- 1346
Puerto Rico..........56650 -- 61280
Guam..........3617 -- 4175
The charts above reflect the results of the latest Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on October 23rd of a national sample of 1,848 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 points.
Saturday, October 24, 2020
In the first 10 days of early voting in Texas, 5,589,569 people voted early in person and 788,431 mail-in ballots have been received. That's a total of 6,387,000 people who have already voted -- about 37.62% of the state's registered voters. There are 8 days left in the early voting period.
The numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.
The charts above are from the Morning Consult Poll. They have questioned over 7,000 likely voters who voted for a third party in the 2016 presidential election. Those voters, combined with some Democrats who stayed home that year, resulted in Donald Trump being able to squeak out an electoral college win. But most of them are not going to repeat that mistake in the 2020 election.
About 53% of them now support the election of Joe Biden (and will vote for him). Only 21% now support Trump, and the remaining 26% are either still voting for a third party (14%) or are unsure (12%).
Most third party voters understand that this election is not an ideological one, but is a referendum on Donald Trump. They are not Democrats, but they know that Trump has been a disaster and must be removed from the White House.
The chart above is from Axios.com. It shows a poll conducted among investors (who had at least $1 million in assets) in 14 countries between September 22nd and October 12th.
Normally, investors prefer Republican presidents, because Republicans are corporate friendly and generally support economic actions that favor the rich and those who invest in the stocks market. But this year is different.
The investors see Trump as a deeply flawed person who has made the world a more dangerous place. In this election, they prefer that Joe Biden be elected president.
The following is most of an op-ed by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post. She nails the flaws in Trump's character that has marred his term in office and doomed his re-election.
Trump is the most predictable politician of our time because he is, as his niece Mary L. Trump pointed out in her book, entirely incapable of changing his worldview or personality. Affixed in the right-wing media bubble that insulates him from reality, he becomes more estranged from actual events, indisputable facts and even his own record. The same features that defined him when he was a self-promoting, albeit failed, businessman still define him — and seal his fate.
First and most important, he is shockingly lacking in empathy to a degree that strikes ordinary people as inhuman. Children orphaned by his cruel child separation program? Obama built the cages! Some 222,000 dead Americans from covid-19? Learn to live with pandemic! The fear Black parents carry that a normal encounter with police will prove fatal to their children? Next to Lincoln, he’s the best president Blacks have ever had! . . .
Second, Trump has always been a conspiracy monger, a know-nothing and a non-reader. He grabs on to whatever garbage floats his way on the stream of right-wing blather. He now is entirely unintelligible to those who do not immerse themselves in the make-believe world of talk radio, Fox News fiction and Russian propaganda. (Disclaimer: I am an MSNBC contributor.) He has become the nutty neighbor in the tin-foil hat, the dotty relative who cannot see others scoffing at him. Only someone trapped in an alternate universe would think that babbling on about Hunter Biden would get him anywhere. It is fitting that the right-wing media that has done such a grave disservice to the country in spreading racism, undermining objective reality and assaulting democratic values is now an instrument of Trump’s downfall.
Third, Trump’s inability to retain anyone with a spine or a conscience means he is surrounded by third-rate yes-men, scoundrels and self-promoters. A con man is often an easy mark — too vain and too self-involved to detect when he is the one being scammed. Only yes-men would acquiesce to his releasing the “60 Minutes” interview with CBS News’s Lesley Stahl, which portrays him as peevish, whiny and weak. Only yes-men would lower debate expectations for Biden and perpetuate the false accusation that he is mentally unfit (thereby allowing Biden to impress viewers simply by uttering complete sentences).
Michelle Obama had it right: The presidency does not change who you are; it reveals who you are. Trump’s Achilles’ heel has always been his deformed character and limited intellect. The race comes down to a damaged, broken man trapped in his own web of lies struggling to bring down a serious, honorable opponent. It’s a race Trump lost as soon as Biden seized the nomination.
Friday, October 23, 2020
The charts above are from a recent survey done by the Pew Research Center. The survey was done between September 30th and October 5th of a national sample of 10,543 registered voters, with a 1.5 point margin of error.
The charts show that about 78% of adults are straight-ticket voters. That means they will vote for the same party for president, Senate, and House candidates.
Most people expect the House to remain in Democratic hands (and they may even have a larger margin that they currently have). The question is -- who will control the Senate. This poll would suggest that if the Democratic presidential candidate wins, it is likely that the Democrats will also take control of the Senate -- especially if the winning margin for president is a large one.
The chart above reflects the results of a recent Gallup Poll -- done between September 30th and October 15th of a national sample of 1,035 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
It shows that 56% of Americans say Trump does not deserve to be re-elected, while only 43% believes he does -- a negative gap of 13 points.
The Labor Department released its statistics on the number of workers filing for unemployment on Thursday for the week ending on October 17th. It showed another 787,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits.
Here is the official Labor Department announcement:
In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 56,000 from 898,000 to 842,000. The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 33,500 from 866,250 to 832,750.
Barack Obama hit the campaign trail for Joe Biden this week. On Wednesday, he delivered a great speech in Philadelphia. The whole speech is well worth reading or watching, but here is some of it:
I never thought Donald Trump would embrace my vision or continue my policies but I did hope for the sake of the country that he might show some interest in taking the job seriously, but it hasn't happened. He hasn't shown any interest in doing the work or helping anybody but himself and his friends or treating the presidency like a reality show that he can use to get attention. And by the way, even then his TV ratings are down. So you know that upsets him.
But the thing is, this is not a reality show, this is reality. And the rest of us have had to live with the consequences of him proving himself incapable of taking the job seriously. At least 220,000 Americans have died. More than 100,000 small businesses have closed. Millions of jobs are gone. Our proud reputation around the world is in tatters. Presidents up for reelection usually ask if the country is better off than it was four years ago. I'll tell you one thing, four years ago you'd be tailgating here at the Lincoln instead of watching a speech from your cars. The only people truly better off than they were four years ago are the billionaires who got his tax cuts. Right now as we speak, Trump won't even extend relief to the millions of families who are having trouble paying the rent or putting food on the table because of this pandemic. But he's been doing all right by himself. . . .
I want to be honest here. This pandemic would have been challenging for any president but this idea that somehow this White House has done anything but completely screw this up. It's just not true. I'll give you a very specific example. Korea identified it's first case at the same time that the United States did. At the same time, their per capita death toll is just 1.3% of what ours is. In Canada, it's just 39% of what ours is. Other countries are still struggling with the pandemic but they're not doing as bad as we are because they've got a government that's actually been paying attention.
And that means lives lost. And that means an economy that doesn't work. And just yesterday, when asked if he'd do anything differently, Trump said, "Not much." Really? Not much? Nothing you can think of that could have helped some people keep their loved ones alive? So, Joe's not going to screw up testing. He's not going to call scientists idiots. He's not going to host a super spreader event at the White House. Joe will get this pandemic under control with a plan to make testing free and widely available, to get a vaccine to every American cost free and to make sure our frontline heroes never ask other countries for their equipment they need.
His plan will guarantee paid sick leave for workers and parents affected by the pandemic and make sure that the small businesses that hold our communities together and employ millions of Americans can reopen safely. Donald Trump likes to claim he built this economy but America created 1.5 million more jobs in the last three years of the Obama-Biden administration than in the first three years of the Trump-Pence administration. How you figure that? And that was before he could blame the pandemic. Now, he did inherit the longest streak of job growth in American history but just like everything else he inherited, he messed it up. The economic damage he inflicted by botching the pandemic response means he will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to actually lose jobs. Joe's got a plan to create 10 million good clean energy jobs as part of a historic $2 trillion investment to fight climate change, to secure environmental justice. And he'll pay for it by rolling back that tax cut for billionaires. And Joe sees this moment not just as a chance to get back to where we were but to finally make long overdue changes so that our economy actually makes life a little easier for everybody, the waitress trying to raise her kid on her own, the student trying to figure out how to pay for next semester's classes, the shift worker who's always on the edge of getting laid off, the cancer survivor who's worried about her preexisting conditions, protections being taken away. . . .
We're not going to have a president that goes out of his way to insult anybody who doesn't support him or threaten them with jail. That's not normal presidential behavior.
That's not normal presidential behavior. We wouldn't tolerate it from a high school principal. We wouldn't tolerate it from a coach. We wouldn't tolerate it from a co-worker. We wouldn't tolerate it in our family, except for maybe crazy uncle somewhere. I mean, why would we expect and accept this from the President of the United States? And why are folks making excuses for that? "Oh, well, that's just him." No. There are consequences to these actions. They embolden other people to be cruel and divisive and racist, and it frays the fabric of our society, and it affects how our children see things. And it affects the ways that our families get along. It affects how the world looks at America. That behavior matters. Character matters. And by the way, while he's doing all that, it distracts all of us from the truly destructive actions that his appointees are doing all across the government, actions that affect your lives. The Environmental Protection Agency that's supposed to protect our air and our water is right now run by an energy lobbyist that gives polluters free reign to dump unlimited poison into our air and water. The Labor Department that's supposed to protect workers and their rights, right now it's run by a corporate lobbyist who's declared war on workers, guts protections to keep essential folks safe during a pandemic, makes it easier for big corporations to shortchange them on their wages. The Interior Department, that's supposed to protect our public lands and wild spaces, our wildlife and our wilderness. And right now that's run by an oil lobbyist who's determined to sell them to the highest bidder.
You've got the Education Department that's supposed to give every kid a chance, and that's run by a billionaire who guts rules designed to protect students from getting ripped off by for profit colleges and stiffs arm students looking for loan relief in the middle of an economic collapse. I mean, the person who runs Medicaid right now is doing their best to kick people off of Medicaid instead of sign them up for Medicaid. Come on. When Joe and Kamala are in charge, they're not going to surround themselves with hacks and lobbyists, but they're going to appoint qualified public servants who actually care about looking out for you, for your job, for your family, for your health, for your security, for your planet, and that more than anything is what separates them from their opponents. They actually care about every American, including the ones that don't agree with them.
And they're going to fight for you every day. They care about you and they care about this democracy. They believe in a democracy. . . .
A president by himself can't solve every challenge in a global economy. But if we've got Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the White House at a House and Senate that are focused on working people, it can make a difference and get millions of people the help they need. A president by himself can't eliminate all racial bias in our criminal justice system. But if we've got district attorneys and state's attorneys and sheriffs and police chiefs focused on equality and justice, it can make things better. . . .
And the fact that we don't get 100% of what we want right away is not a good reason not to vote. It means we've got to vote and then get some change and then vote some more and then get some more change, and then keep on voting until we get it right. . . .
I'm asking you to remember what this country can be. What it's like when we treat each other with respect and dignity, what it's like when our elected officials actually behave responsibly. I'm asking you to believe in Joe's ability, in Kamala's ability to lead this country out of these dark times, and help us build it back better, because we can't abandon those who are hurting right now. We can't abandon the children who aren't getting the education they need right now.
We can't abandon those protesters who inspired us. We've got to channel their activism into action, we can't just imagine a better future. We've got to fight for it. We've got to out hustle the other side, we got to outwork the other side, we've got to vote like never before and leave no doubt. . . .
What Lincoln called the better angels of our nature, those are still in us. We see them operating every single day. We see them in neighborhoods, we see them in churches and synagogues and mosques and temples. We see them in people helping out a neighbor. We see them them inside our own families. We see that what is best in us is still there, but we've got to give it voice, and we've got to do it now.
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Through the first 8 days of early voting in Texas, 4,626,042 Texans have voted early and another 698,990 mail-in ballots have been received. That makes 5,325,032 votes that have been cast in this election -- about 31.41% of the state's registered voters. There are 10 more days of early voting.
The charts above reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between October 18th and 20th of a national sample of 1,500 registered voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.
It shows that registered voters have a 6 point higher opinion of Joe Biden than Donald Trump (51% to 45%). When it comes to their views of the political parties, the difference is even bigger. Voters have a 10 point higher opinion of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (49% to 39%).
The definition of QAnon is from The New York Times. The chart is from the recent Yahoo News / YouGov Poll -- done between October 16th and 18th of a national sample of 1,583 registered voters, with a 4 point margin of error.
The poll shows that half of Donald Trump's voters believe the QAnon conspiracy theory is true, and 33% are not sure if it's true or not. Only 17% know that it is not true.
This is why the Republican Party is in trouble. Too many of it's members are not connected to reality.