Texas Early Voting Was Large For A Midterm Election

The early vote total in Texas was fairly large for a midterm election. About 5,490,208 people voted early -- about 31.07% of the 17,672,143 registered voters in the state. 

In 2018, about 8,371,255 people voted in that election (both early and on Election Day). With early voting totaling 5.4 million this year, it seems obvious that total voting in this election will easily eclipse the total voting in 2018. A new record will be set for a midterm election.

We'll have to wait to see which party will benefit from this.

The numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Republicans Leading In Texas Early Voting

The chart above uses numbers from the office of the Texas Secretary of State. It shows the early voting totals for both political parties through February 18th (Friday). So far, Republican voters are significantly outnumbering Democratic voters statewide. 380,085 Republicans have voted, while 222,594 Democrats have voted -- a difference of 157,491.

By November, Democrats need to make up this enthusiasm gap, and get their voters to the polls in large numbers.

Over 31% of Texans Have Already Voted

Through the first 8 days of early voting in Texas, 4,626,042 Texans have voted early and another 698,990 mail-in ballots have been received. That makes 5,325,032 votes that have been cast in this election -- about 31.41% of the state's registered voters. There are 10 more days of early voting.

Nearly 23% of Registered Voters Have Voted In Texas

Five out of 18 days of early voting has been completed in Texas. So far, 3,323,360 people have voted in person and 558,019 mail-in ballots have been received. That's a total of 3,881,379 votes that have already been cast in this election -- about 22.89% of the state's registered voters.

The numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Early Voting Totals For Texas Democratic Primary

The chart above uses the official figures from the office of the Texas Secretary of State. It shows the total number of early voters in 15 of the largest counties in Texas. These counties contain 63.15% of all the registered voters in the state.

Note that the early voting totals for 2020 are far ahead of 2016. About 759,638 Democrats voted in 2020, while only 448,859 voted in 2016. I think it's pretty obvious that the total number of primary voters in 2020 will exceed that of 2016 after the March 3rd voters are figured in.

The only question is whether those voters will exceed the number of Democratic primary voters that voted in 2008, when a record number of voters participated (2,874,986). The chart below shows the total number of voters in the past four Texas Democratic primaries.

Final Totals Of Early Voting In Texas (15 Biggest Counties)

The charts above show the early voting in Texas for the last three midterm elections. Note that this year is different -- far outpacing the early voting in 2014 or 2010. In fact, it more than doubles the early voting totals of either 2014 or 2010.

Democrats needed a huge turnout to have a chance in Texas. They got it! On election night, we'll find out if it was enough/

Note that about 40% of the registered voters have already voted.

The charts above are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State. They are totals from the 15 largest counties in the state. Those counties have 65% of the registered voters in the state.

First Week Of Texas Early Voting Far Stronger Than 2014

These 15 largest counties contain about 65% of the total registered voters in the state of Texas (which has 254 counties). The top chart shows the total number of voters who voted in the first week of early voting in Texas. Note that the numbers easily eclipse the number of early voter in the first week of 2014 (the last midterm election).

The second chart shows the percentage of registered voters in each county who voted in that first week of early voting, compared to the percentage in the first week from 2014.

The numbers in both charts are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Texas Early Voting Still High After The First 3 Days

The charts above show the total number of voters and the percentage of registered voters that voted in the first three days of early voting in Texas. The numbers are from the website of the Texas Secretary of State, and show the results from 15 of the largest counties in Texas. Those counties have about 10.29 million registered voters -- about 65% of the 15.79 million registered voters in Texas.

The early voting totals are much larger than in the last midterm election (2014) -- and they almost equal the first three day total from 2016.

Democrats were hoping for a large turnout, and that seems to be what's happening. We'll have to wait until November 6th to see if it helped them.

Texas Early Voting - Dem. Run-Off (30 Largest Counties)

The Texas Democratic Party had some run-offs to be settled. Most prominently was in the race for Governor, where Lupe Valdez faced Andrew White. Valdez led in the March primary, but didn't get 50%.

The chart above shows the early voting total for Democrats in the 30 counties with the largest population. The counties are listed in order of their number of registered voters, with the largest number of registered voters at the top (Harris 2,257,546) and the smallest number at the bottom (Randall 85,302).

Run-off early voting was only held for 5 days -- compared to 11 days in the March primary. So it's not surprising to see fewer people voting in a lot of the counties. Also, fewer people tend to vote in run-offs than in the primary. We'll have to see how strong the turnout is on election day -- Tuesday May 22nd.

I don't have a clue as to how the governor's race candidacy will turn out. Fortunately, I like both candidates, and can easily support either in the November election. I urge my fellow Democrats to vote in the run-off. If you didn't vote early, then please do that on Tuesday. It would look good to have a strong showing, plus the fact that Texas Democrats need to get in the habit of voting in EVERY election and run-off.

Too often in the past, Democrats have not bothered to vote because they didn't think we had a chance of winning. Texas is changing though, and this year we do have a chance -- but only if we all make sure to vote!

The early voting numbers in the chart above are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Tillerson Fails Donald Trump's Sycophancy Requirement

Rex Tillerson is out as Secretary of State. That really shouldn't surprise anyone. While Tillerson was the basic corporatist Republican, he also had the ability to think for himself -- and that is not something Donald Trump can stand.

Trump has said he demands loyalty from those in his administration. That is not really true. A person can be loyal, as Tillerson was, and still disagree with actions he thinks is wrong. And Tillerson did disagree with Trump.

He recognized that Iran was abiding by the treaty the two countries had signed, while Trump is looking for any excuse to toss out that treaty. Tillerson was also willing to call Russia to task for its actions (like their poisoning of a man and his daughter in Great Britain), while Trump refuses to acknowledge any wrongdoing by Russia.

The truth is that Trump doesn't want loyalty -- he demands sycophancy. He's not just a narcissist. He takes narcissism to dizzying new heights. He wants his employees to be sycophants -- "yes-men" who will praise whatever he says or does, and praise him again when he says or does the opposite thing a few days (or few hours) later.

Of course, that is why the White House is in chaos. Even the yes-men working there don't know where their boss stands. They would love to defend his ridiculous words and actions, but are afraid that he will change his ming as soon as they do that.

Tillerson was not a great Secretary of State, but that wasn't why he was fired. He was fired because he failed Trump's demand for sycophancy.

Texas Is Still A Red State (Despite Early Voting Numbers)

The early voting numbers published by the office of the Texas Secretary of State showed the number of voters who voted in each party's primary. Those numbers only contained the votes from the 15 largest Texas counties, but those counties contain about two-thirds of the state's registered voters. Those early voting numbers looked very good for Democrats. In those counties, about 45,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans.

The hope was that Democrats had held their own in the other counties (containing the other third of registered voters), and would keep pace with Republicans on election day. That would have shown Texas was on the verge of turning blue.

But that did not happen. In those other counties and on election day, the Republican Party reigned supreme. The charts above show the bad news. While Democrats did turn out in large numbers, the Republicans turned out in even larger numbers -- outvoting Democrats by more than half a million votes (Republicans 1,537,868 - Democrats 1,017,150). The Republican voters made up 10.08% of the state's registered voters, while the Democratic voters made up only 6.67%.

Those are not numbers that show a state on the verge of turning blue (or even purple). That day will come (thanks to demographic changes), but it's still a future change.

Having said that, there's still some things for Democrats to be encouraged by. They did turn out in record numbers for the primary. And considering the anger in the country, they could flip one or two U.S. House districts from Republican to Democrat. There is also an outside chance that Beto O'Rourke could unseat Ted Cruz in the Senate race. Cruz is not as popular as other statewide Republicans, and if some things happen (a large turnout by young voters and by voters in the Valley and urban areas, a significant number of women abandoning the GOP, and a well-run and financed campaign by O'Rourke) there could be a minor miracle in November.

Texas is not yet ready to turn blue -- sweeping statewide offices for Democrats and flipping the majority of House districts to Democrats. Those who thought that are simply wrong. But progress could be made this November, and that's good for now.

Did Putin Pick Donald Trump's Secretary of State ?

 There are those (especially on the right) who would consider it ludicrous to think that the United States Secretary of State was picked by Putin, and only rubber-stamped by Donald Trump. But it may not be such a ridiculous proposition. Consider this from The Daily Beast:

A new New Yorker profile of Trump-Russia dossier author Christopher Steele reports on a lesser-known memo the former MI-6 spy allegedly discussed with special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators. According to the report, in late November 2016, Steele relayed information from his Russian sources that senior Kremlin officials had intervened to block Mitt Romney as President-elect Trump’s choice for secretary of State. Reporter Jane Mayer writes that Moscow had asked Trump to appoint someone who would be willing to lift sanctions related to Ukraine and cooperate with Russia’s involvement in Syria. 

Those on the right will immediately discount this simply because it came from Christopher Steele. They accept the propaganda that Steele was paid to make up a fake dossier on Trump. That is untrue. Steele was a trusted intelligence officer for a long time, and most of what was in his famous dossier has been proven to have been correct. Couldn't this information also be correct?

It is bolstered by the choice Trump finally did make to fill the office of Secretary of State -- Rex Tillerson, who is well-liked by Russia's Putin. He signed an oil deal with Russia worth many billions of dollars, and Russia awarded him the Order of Friendship (the highest award given to a foreigner). Russia got an American Secretary of State they considered to be a friend.

Did Russia have enough pull with Donald Trump to block the appointment of someone they didn't like and approve of someone they did like? It certainly looks like that could be the case. Add to this the fact that Trump tried to remove sanctions against Russia and return property seized from them by the U.S. government almost immediately after being sworn in (and was stopped only by Congress from doing so). Now has refused to impose new sanctions imposed on Russia by Congress. He also continues to deny Russian interference in the 2016 election, and has not ordered government officials to make sure the Russians don't interfere in future elections.

It all makes me wonder why Trump is so weak on Russia (and much harder on our traditional allies). What do the Russians have on him? Is it just the embarrassing "pee tape", or is it much darker (like money laundering through his businesses, or other monetary criminality)? Is it just a threat to call due the many millions loaned him by Russian banks -- a move that could destroy his business empire?

Whatever it is (and I do believe they have something on Trump), it seems to be pretty bad (at least in Trump's mind). It makes me wonder just who is calling the shots when it comes to U.S. policy on Russia -- Trump or Putin? I'm beginning to believe it is the latter -- and that we have a traitor living in the White House.

Dem Advantage Grows After 8 Days Of Texas Early Voting

There has now been 8 days of early primary voting completed in Texas (February 20th through February 27th), with three more days to go (early voting ends on March 2nd). The top chart shows the total number of voters that have cast votes in each party's primary.

It shows that enthusiasm remains high among Democrats -- far higher than in previous years. Through the first 8 days, about 44,157 more Democrats (308,896) have voted than Republicans (264,739). These numbers (from the Texas Secretary of State) are only from the largest 15 counties in the state, but those counties contain about two-thirds of the state's registered voters. The chart below shows the totals in each of those 15 counties.

This is very encouraging. If the Democrats can turn out this well in the Fall, and Independents (who don't vote in party primaries) break for Democrats, this could actually be a very competitive election -- something Texas hasn't seen statewide in more than two decades.

Texas Early Voting Numbers After 6 Days of Voting

The chart above shows the results by party (and combined) of Texas early voting after 6 days in the 15 largest counties (which have about 66% of the states registered voters). The numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

It shows that voters are enthused about the 2018 election. After six days in 2014 (the last off-year election), 256,982 people had voted. In 2018, that total is 363,962 -- a difference of 106,980. The Republicans have increased their vote by 21,435, but most of the increase in early voting is due to more Democrats voting The Democratic vote has increased by 85,545.

For the first time in years, Texas Democrats are enthused. They are voting in numbers that suggest they now believe they can win. After 6 days, 186,796 Democrats have voted and 177,166 Republicans have voted -- a difference of 9,630 voters.

Texas Dems Lead Primary Early Voting In Texas After 3 Days

If you had any doubt that Democrats are enthusiastic about this year's election, Texas Democrats are answering those doubts. After 3 days of early voting, Democrats lead the Republicans in turnout for early voting in the party primaries -- and Democrats are far ahead of their turnout numbers for 2014 (the last off-year election primary).

While the Republican number of voters after three days is very similar to 2014, the Democratic numbers are not. 43,895 more Democrats have voted this year than did in 2014. That's 5,953 more Democrats that have voted in the first three days than Republicans.

We'll have to see if this enthusiasm among Democrats continues, and whether they can duplicate it in November, but I see no reason why it wouldn't happen -- and if it does, then the statewide races in Texas could be much closer than prognosticators are predicting (especially in the Senate race, where Cruz is not really very popular).

The numbers in the chart above are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Is Texas Really Turning Blue ?

I have written in the past that I think the demographic changes happening in Texas favor the Democrats, and in the future Texas will be a blue state. I'm not alone in that belief. The following is part of an article on medium.com by Jack Craver:

One of the apparent silver linings of an otherwise disastrous 2016 presidential election was Donald Trump’s relatively poor performance in Texas. Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points in Texas, a far slimmer margin than the 16 percentage points by which Romney triumphed four years earlier.

Why did Trump do so poorly relative to previous nominees? My prior assumption, likely shared by many others who were too depressed to dive into the data, was that, in addition to increased Latino turnout, Clinton’s appeals to educated, white-collar Republicans that had fallen so flat in the Rust Belt had actually worked in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas and Austin, leading many country club Republicans to stay home or vote for Hillary.

That was until I read an analysis by Ed Espinoza, a long-time Democratic strategist who runs Progress Texas, a liberal outfit based in Austin. He pointed out that Trump’s narrower margin was most likely the result of new voters coming out for Hillary, not Republican voters deserting their nominee.

Indeed, Trump won Texas by a far slimmer margin than the three most recent GOP nominees despite the fact that he got more overall votes here than any presidential candidate in history.

It’s pretty simple. Trump got about what you’d expect a Republican candidate to get based on recent performances. In 2008, John McCain got 4.48 million votes. In 2012, Mitt Romney got 4.57 million, an increase of 90,000 votes. And in 2016, Trump got 4.68 million, an increase of 110,000.

In contrast, Hillary Clinton got 557,000 more votes than Obama.

Simply put, the Texans who died today were disproportionately Republican. Of those who turned 18, the great majority are Democrats.

If this trend continues, the GOP’s downfall in Texas isn’t likely, it’s assured. And without Texas, the national GOP is royally screwed.

I went back and checked the presidential results for this century for Texas (at the site of the Texas Secretary of State). The charts above show the results for those five presidential elections. The top chart shows the vote totals, and the second chart shows the percentages of the vote for each party's candidate.

Mr. Craver is correct. Clinton came closer than Obama, Kerry, or Gore in carrying the state -- with a smaller percentage los and a smaller difference in raw votes. And both the percentage and vote totals seem to be trending toward Democrats.

But don't hold your breath waiting for Texas to turn blue. Clinton still lost by 9 points and 810,000 votes. That's a significant difference, and shows it could still be a while before Democrats can carry Texas in a presidential election.

Texas Democrats should take heart though -- the demographics still favor them in the long run, and with some work maybe that time could come a little sooner. Texas is going to turn blue -- just not as fast as some of us would like.

Having said that, I do think Beto O'Rourke (the probable Democratic candidate for Senate) has an outside chance of beating Ted Cruz. Cruz is not very popular. O'Rourke is a personable candidate and good campaigner. And Democrats are fired up. Texans normally don't vote in the off-year elections in very large numbers (in either party). If the Democrats can use the dislike of Trump to get large numbers to the polls, and too many Republicans stay at home -- the miracle could just happen.

Texas Early Voting Totals After The First Nine Days

After the first 9 days (Of 12 days) of early voting in Texas, the state is still on target to break its early voting record by a significant margin. The top chart shows the number of early voters (in the largest 15 counties), and the bottom chart shows the percentage of all registered voters. Numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Texas Democratic Primary Vote Down By 50.1%

The Democratic primary/caucus votes have been down in nearly every state in 2016 over the same figures for the 2008 election. But the figures for Texas are rather shocking, even considering that. Slightly less than half (49.9%) of Democrats voted on March 1st compared to the number that voted in 2008. On March 1st, 1,433,827 people voted in the Democratic primary in Texas. In 2008, that numbers was 2,874,986.

It seems that Sanders' "political revolution" (which was supposed to bring so many new voters into the party) didn't make it to Texas.

These numbers are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Texas Early Voting Turnout Is Way Down In 2016

We know that the turnout in the first three Democratic primaries/caucus (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada) was down significantly from the figures in the last contested year (2008). Now it looks like the same thing is happening in Texas -- if early voting is an indicator (and I believe it is).

In 2008, 890,188 Democrats voted early, but this year only 448,863 Democrats have voted early (numbers are for the 15 largest Texas counties). That's only 50.4% of the 2008 turnout for 2016 -- a drop of nearly half.

Where is the infamous Sanders revolution -- a revolution that was supposed to bring many new voters to the polls? If he can't even boost Democratic turnout, how are we to believe he will do that in the general election?

The numbers above are from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

Early Voting Figures For Texas

The early voting numbers and percentages provided here are only for the largest 15 counties in Texas -- but that's where most of the state's population is, and it is indicative of what happened in the state as a whole.

Note that the figures are just about where they were in 2010 (slightly behind). Were these the same kind of voters that voted early in 2010? Does this mean that we'll have about the same number & percentage of voters as in 2010? We won't know that until the votes are counted tonight -- but I think the Democrats were hoping for a significant increase in early voting, and that just did not happen.

The two charts below show the total turnout for previous elections. You can compare them with the early voting charts above and make your own predictions. All numbers are from the website of the Texas Secretary of State.