Top Secret Binder On Russian Election Interference Missing

The following is part of a story from CNN.com:

A binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference went missing at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, raising alarms among intelligence officials that some of the most closely guarded national security secrets from the US and its allies could be exposed, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Its disappearance, which has not been previously reported, was so concerning that intelligence officials briefed Senate Intelligence Committee leaders last year about the missing materials and the government’s efforts to retrieve them, the sources said.

In the two-plus years since Trump left office, the missing intelligence does not appear to have been found.

The binder contained raw intelligence the US and its NATO allies collected on Russians and Russian agents, including sources and methods that informed the US government’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to help Trump win the 2016 election, sources tell CNN.

The intelligence was so sensitive that lawmakers and congressional aides with top secret security clearances were able to review the material only at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, where their work scrutinizing it was itself kept in a locked safe.

The binder was last seen at the White House during Trump’s final days in office. . . .

The binder was not among the classified items found in last year’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

Stock Market Rises Sharply In Month After Biden's Election

 One of the scare tactics that Donald Trump used in the 2020 presidential campaign was about the stock market. He told investors that the market would fall drastically if Joe Biden was elected, and investors would lose huge amounts of money.

As expected, that turned out to be just another of his thousands of lies.

The market rose sharply in the month after Joe Biden's election, and rose significantly more than it rose after the 2016 election. In fact, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all rose more after Biden's election than after Trump's election.

Investors in the market hate surprises, like the crazy actions by Trump (such as a trade war against China and many of our allies). They see Biden as returning to solid economic principles, and they like the team of economic professionals he has chosen.

Texans Smash Voting Record (w/o Election Day Count)!

The chart above shows the total number of voters that voted in presidential elections in Texas. The record number of voters was set in 2016, when 8,969,226 people voted.

That record has already been surpassed, and we haven't even gotten to Election Day yet. According to the office of the Texas Secretary of State, 8,698,233 people voted early in person and 971,013 mail-in ballots have been received. That's a total of 9,669,246 people who have already voted -- hundreds of thousands more than the old record for total votes. And when the Election Day voters are added, the old record will be surpassed by several million.

I don't know who those people voted for, but it's obvious that Texans are enthusiastic about voting this year.

 

The Difference Between Voters in 2016 and 2018

 

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. It compares the 2016 voters to those in 2018, and shows where the Democrats got the votes to carry the 2018 election. Can they keep those voters in 2020? We'll soon find out!

Active-Duty Military Does NOT Support Trump's Re-Election

The charts above of from Military Times -- the magazine for our active-duty troops. They did a poll of 1,018 active-duty troops between July 27th and August. The poll had a 2 point margin of error.

Normally, the Republican presidential candidate can count on winning the majority of military votes, and Trump did lead Clinton by nearly 20 points among the military in October of 2016. But 2020 is a different matter. Currently, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 5.7 points.

Trump has had a serious drop in his favorability among our troops. In 2016, he was viewed favorably by 46.1% and unfavorably by 37.0% -- a positive rating of 9.1 points. That has now flipped, and currently, he is viewed favorably by 37.8% and unfavorably by 49.9% -- a negative rating of 12.1 points.

Early Voting Still Up In Texas (And New Texas Poll)

The chart above uses official figures from the office of the Texas Secretary of State. It shows the early voting totals (both in-person and mail-in) for the first 9 days of early voting in 15 of the state's largest counties. These counties have slightly over 63% of the state's registered voters.

Note that the early voting numbers for 2020 (blue bars) remains significantly up from the numbers for 2016 (green bars). There are two more days of early voting, and then the primary on March 3rd. It now looks like Texas Democrats could set a record for turnout.

The chart below is from Public Policy Polling. It is a poll taken on February 24th and 25th of 1,045 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas. According to these figures, only four candidates could reach the 15% level to qualify for delegates -- Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg, and Warren.

Public Says Russia Interfered In 2016 & Are Doing It Again

Donald Trump still denies that the Russians interfered in our presidential election in 2016. He's afraid that detracts from his electoral college victory. But the American people aren't buying his ridiculous denials. About 52% of all adults (and 59% of registered voters) believe Russia did interfere.

And the public (45% of all adults and 52% of registered voters) say Russia is doing it again, even though Trump also denies that. And they believe the Russians are doing it to help Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders (who they think Trump could beat easier).

These charts reflect the results of the newest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between February 23rd and 25th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,184 registered voters), with a 2.8 point margin of error for adults and 3 point margin for registered voters.

Texas Dems Still Voting In Large Numbers In Early Voting

The chart above shows the early voting for Texas Democrats in the first six days of the early voting period. It uses the official numbers from the office of the Texas Secretary of State.

The chart just includes the numbers for 15 of the largest counties in the state. These counties have 63.15% (10,237,425) of the total registered voters in the state (16,211,198).

The blue bars on the chart shows the early voting totals for these counties in 2020. The green bars show the early voting totals for the same time period in 2016. Note that early voting in 2020 is still significantly larger for Democrats than it was in 2016.

Clinton Remarks On Sanders In 2016 And 2020

(The photo of Hillary Clinton, from Wikipedia, is by Gage Skidmore.)

In a podcast interview last Friday, Hillary Clinton had the following to say about Bernie Sanders and his followers:

I mean, you had, unfortunately, a very different outcome in the 2016 primary, where I won by four million votes. I won overwhelmingly in delegates. There was no question about who was going to be the nominee. But unfortunately, you know, his campaign and his principal supporters were just very difficult and really, constantly not just attacking me, but my supporters.

We get to the convention. They’re booing Michelle Obama, John Lewis. It was very distressing and such a contrast between what we did to unite in ’08.

All the way up until the end, a lot of people highly identified with his campaign were urging people to vote third party, urging people not to vote. It had an impact.

That cannot happen again. I don’t care who the nominee is. I don’t care. As long as it’s somebody who can win, and as long as it’s somebody who understands politics is the art of addition, not subtraction.

I think people need to have to really think hard about who can beat Trump. And it’s not the popular vote, as I learned to my own grave disappointment. . . So I just want us to be really focused on winning. That’s all I care about.

Will Bernie's Supporters Help Re-Elect Trump?

In the 2016 election, too many of Bernie Sanders' supporters were angry that he did not get the nomination -- and a significant portion of them then refused to support the Democratic nominee (Clinton) in the general election. That, combined with too many Democrats staying home (thinking Clinton would easily win), caused Donald Trump to win the electoral college.

Have Democrats learned their lesson? Hopefully, they have. I think most will actually go to the polls this year, convinced they must to keep Trump from being re-elected.

But this new poll shows the same might not be true of Bernie's supporters. About 90% of Warren supporters, 87% of Biden supporters, and 86% of Buttigieg supporters say they will vote vote the Democratic nominee -- even if their candidate does not win the nomination.

Sadly, the same is not true of Bernie supporters. Only 53% say they will vote for the Democratic nominee if it is not Sanders. Another 31% say it would depend on who the nominee is, and a whopping 16% say they would NOT vote for the Democratic nominee if it is not Bernie Sanders. Evidently that 16% (and possibly another 31%) would be happy to see Trump re-elected.

The chart above is from a recent Emerson College Poll -- done between January 21st and 23rd of a national sample of 1,128 registered voters, with a 2.8 point margin of error.

Public Doesn't Believe Trump Claims About Russia/Ukraine

It is clear that Trump is still trying to cover for Russia. In addition, he has now accepted the Russian propaganda that it was Ukraine (not Russia) that interfered in the 2016 election. He thinks he can justify his actions with Ukraine by accusing them of the interference, and make his election seem more proper (because a country tried to stop him instead of helping him).

It's not working. The public knows Trump is not honest and trustworthy, and they don't believe his lies about Russia and Ukraine. Instead, majorities believe the American intelligence agencies on 2016 interference. About 58% say Russia interfered (with 28% saying they did not), and 53% say Ukraine did not interfere (with 23% saying they did). It seems obvious that only the hardcore trumpistas are believing Trump (the ones that would support him no matter what he did).

These charts reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 28th and 31st of a national sample of 1,123 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

U.S. Voters Are Not Buying The GOP Lies About Ukraine

These charts reflect the results of the new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 1st and 3rd of a national sample of 1,200 registered voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

In an effort to justify his election and obfuscate Russian involvement in the 2016 election on his behalf, Donald Trump is still trying to float the lie that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that interfered in the election.

And in an effort to cover for Trump's criminal conduct and prevent his impeachment, Republican members of Congress are spreading that same lie. They know it's not true, and don't seem to care that it's Russian propaganda to cover their own criminal involvement in the 2016 election. They also don't seem to care that the Russian propaganda has been debunked by all of our intelligence agencies (and an investigation by the Senate Intelligence Committee).

Fortunately, American voters are not buying the Trump/Republican lies. Note that only 22% of registered voters think Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election, while 50% say that did not happen (see the chart above).

Americans do think a foreign power did interfere in the 2016 election. About 60% of registered voters say Russia interfered, while only 25% say they did not (see chart below).

The congressional Republicans are just destroying their own credibility with the voters.

Trump Repeats Russian Propaganda Intended To Hurt U.S.

In her testimony before Congress, Dr. Fiona Hill made it clear that Ukraine did not interfere in the 2016 U.S. election. Just a day later, intelligence officials briefed senators that it was Russia that interfered in the 2016 election -- not Ukraine. And they emphasized that Russia had tried to frame Ukraine in a disinformation campaign. In short, the idea that it was Ukraine that interfered in our presidential campaign has been thoroughly debunked.

But Donald Trump doesn't seem to care what the truth is, or is too stupid to recognize the truth when he sees it. He is still repeating the Russian propaganda. He is still doing Putin's dirty work.

Here is what Steve Benen had to say about it at The MaddowBlog:

Yesterday, Dr. Fiona Hill, the former top Russia expert on the White House National Security Council, implored Republicans to stop echoing propaganda created by the Kremlin to undermine the United States and help Moscow. “In the course of this investigation, I would ask that you please not promote politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interest,” she testified.”

Hill added, “I refuse to be part of an effort to legitimize an alternate narrative that the Ukrainian government is a U.S. adversary – and that the Ukraine, not Russia, attacked us in 2016.” She went on to take aim at the “fictional narrative” that Kyiv was somehow responsible for the attack, a discredited claim “being perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services.”

House Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), a sycophantic White House ally, tried to push back, insisting that Republicans didn’t need the reminder because they had already acknowledged the truth. And yet, one day later, Donald Trump appeared on Fox News’ morning program, where he ignored Hill’s warnings, contradicted Nunes, and echoed Russian propaganda.

TRUMP: You know, it’s very interesting. They have the server, right, from the DNC, Democratic National Committee, you know.

KILMEADE: Who has the server?

TRUMP: The FBI went in and they told them, get out of here, you’re not getting – we’re not giving it to you. They gave the server to Crowdstrike, or whatever it’s called, which is a country – which is a company owned by a very wealthy Ukrainian. And I still want to see that server. You know, the FBI has never gotten that server. That’s a big part of this whole thing. Why did they give it to a Ukrainian company? Why?

DOOCY: Are you sure they did that? Are you sure they gave it to Ukraine?

TRUMP: Well, that’s what the word is. That’s what I asked actually in my phone call, as you know.

To the extent that reality still has any meaning, we already know that everything the president said about this conspiracy theory is both wrong and crackpot nonsense. There is no ambiguity: the claim Trump keeps peddling, publicly and to national audiences, is just crazy. Even White House officials have urged the president not to believe it. He doesn’t care.

But it’s not just factually incorrect. In the shadow of the impeachment inquiry, it’s also an example of Trump asking people to believe a discredited claim, that is, in Fiona Hill’s words, “being perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services.”

Or put another way, the American president is helping advance Kremlin propaganda intended to hurt the United States.

Indeed, Trump wouldn’t let it go. “Don’t forget, Ukraine hated me,” he added this morning. “They were after me in the election. They wanted Hillary Clinton to win.”

I don’t honestly expect the president to have watched Fiona Hill’s testimony, and he obviously wouldn’t read a transcript if it were handed to him. But there’s probably room for a public conversation about why Trump seems so eager to stick to the Russian script Hill urged officials to avoid.

Trump Knew About Russia Interference - And Didn't Care

It has bothered Americans that care about our laws and Constitution that Donald Trump didn't believe the Russians interfered in our 2016 presidential election. When he met with Putin, he told the media that he believed Putin's denials of interference -- in spite of every American intelligence service saying the Russians did interfere.

Now we learn that it is much worse than we thought. Trump did know (and accept) that the Russians interfered. He just did not care! When he met with the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador in 2017, he told them that he was not concerned with their interference in the 2016 election. That statement gave them the green light to continue their interference in our electoral process.

It has become obvious that Trump only cares about one thing -- Donald Trump. The country, and it's democratic processes, come second to whatever Trump thinks is good for himself. He likes that the Russians helped him to get elected in 2016, and he wants them to do the same in 2020. Our laws forbidding foreign help in our elections means nothing to Trump.

And it's not just the Russians he wants help from. We now know he tried to get the Ukrainian government to help also -- by supplying dirt on Joe Biden (whether true or not).

Trump is not just an ignorant fool. He is a danger to our democracy. He must be IMPEACHED!

2016 Russian Hacking Was Far More Pervasive Than Thought

The Senate Intelligence Committee has released the first volume of its report on Russian interference in the 2016 election -- and it found that it was far worse than had been thought. It wasn't just some states that the Russians hacked -- it was all 50 states. And the voting machines used were vulnerable. They don't think actually vote totals were changed, but the Russians continue to interfere, and they might be able to do that in 2020, because most states are still using the same vulnerable election processes.

And sadly, the Republicans in Congress (especially Majority Leader McConnell) is blocking all attempts to enhance the election security.

Here is how Leigh Ann Caldwell, Heidi Przybyla, and Kyle Stewart reported the committee's findings for NBC News:

The Senate Intelligence Committee released abipartisan report Thursday on Russian election interference that found the U.S. election infrastructure was unprepared to combat “extensive activity” by Russia that began in 2014 and carried on at least into 2017.

The report was issued just one day after former special counsel Robert Mueller warned U.S. lawmakers that he believes Russia will seek to interfere again in the 2020 campaign and that “many more countries” are also developing similar capabilities.

“In 2016, the U.S. was unprepared at all levels of government for a concerted attack from a determined foreign adversary on our election infrastructure,” Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a statement.

The 61-page report — based on interviews with state election officials, Obama administration officials and government and intelligence community officials — is just the first volume of the findings of the committee's investigation. It includes eight pages of recommendations to shore up the country’s election infrastructure to prevent future interference.

The report found that the Russians took advantage of the nation's decentralized voting system, “exploiting seams” between federal oversight and state election systems. It also found that election cybersecurity was “sorely lacking” in 2016 and that federal attempts to warn states about potential security breaches "did not provide enough information or go to the appropriate people."

Election databases weren’t as secure as they should be, according to the report, and aging voting machines with no paper trail were vulnerable.

For instance, in one state, which was not named but identified as “state 7,” the password to the machine was as simple as “ABC123” and the people testing the machines could easily switch the machines into supervisor mode and tamper with the votes to “call the results into question.”

The communication between the Department of Homeland Security to the states in 2016 was insufficient and lacked context, the report notes. Twenty-one states said they found out about possible interference from the media or the Intelligence Committee’s hearing on the topic in 2017. . . .

The committee recommends that states purchase more secure voting machines, including voting machines with a paper trail. It recommends audits of voting machines and security audits.

It also suggests that election cybersecurity needs to be a bigger national priority and that the United States should communicate to other world leaders that an attack on U.S. elections would be seen as a hostile act. . . .

The subsequent volumes of the committee’s investigation will cover the intelligence agencies’ assessment of Russian interference, the Obama administration’s response and the role of social media disinformation campaigns.

Poll Shows Georgia And N. Carolina Could Go Blue In 2020

Public Policy Polling just surveyed 602 registered voters in Georgia on July 16th and 17th, and 581 registered voters in North Carolina on the same two days -- and the result was very interesting.

Those polled in Georgia had voted for Trump in 2016 by a 4 point margin. But those same voters now say they would vote for a Democrat this time by a 4 point margin.

Those polled in North Carolina had voted for Trump by a 3 point margin in 2016. But they now support a Democrat by a 5 point margin.

Of course, this does not guarantee a win for the Democratic presidential candidate in either state. But it does show that, if the Democrats nominate an acceptable candidate, and work hard to get out the vote, then both states could actually wind up in the blue column.

Evidence Says Trump Campaign DID Conspire With Russia

 

The names in the column to the left are the members of Donald Trump's family and campaign staff that met with Russians  during the presidential campaign and/or the transition after Trump was elected. Those 16 people had at least 101 meetings with Russian operatives.

(For a complete list of the 101 meetings with Russian operatives, you can go to The Moscow Project.)

In addition to the 16 people who met with Russian operatives, there were another 12 people in the Trump campaign who knew about at least some of those meetings. That makes 28 people who either met with Russian operatives or knew about those meetings.

It is no longer reasonable to believe that the Trump campaign did not collude (conspire) with Russia to affect the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. If it was only one or two people that had met once or twice with Russians, the argument could be made that these were lone agents and the campaign did not know what they were doing (or approve of it). But now that the number is 28, that is no longer a believable argument.

I'm sure that some of Trump's base will still try to claim that Trump did not know or approve of these meetings. That is also beyond belief.

Donald Trump is a micro-manager. He micro-managed his businesses, and he did the same with his presidential campaign. No one can logically conclude that Trump was clueless to 101 meetings with Russians by 16 members of his campaign team -- and that the 12 people who knew did not tell Trump.

Nothing happened in the Trump campaign that was not know by Trump himself, and which he did not approve. Trump has repeatedly denied that he colluded with Russia to affect the 2016 campaign. He is lying. He did collude (conspire) with Russia -- and he needs to be impeached and indicted for that.                                                                    

The Public Expects Mueller's Investigation To Find Evidence Of A Trump Campaign Conspiracy With Russia

The Mueller investigation was started to find out whether there was a conspiracy between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia to affect the 2016 election for president. It looks like the investigation has broadened to include other possible criminal acts by Trump and his campaign, but the most interesting and troubling part of the investigation for most people remains the possible conspiracy with Russia.

Trump has tried to denigrate the investigation by saying it's a "witch hunt", that there was no collusion, and that there is no law against collusion. Those are rather pathetic attempts at defending himself. We know it's not a witch hunt because of the large number of indictments and convictions that have already happened (and more expected to happen). And while Trump is right that there's no law against collusion, that's only because the law uses a different word -- conspiracy.

So, did the Trump campaign conspire with Russia to affect the 2016 presidential race? The American public seems to think so. About 53% of registered voters (and 49% of all adults) believe evidence of conspiracy will be found by the Mueller investigation. Only 33% of registered voters (and 30% of all adults) believe no evidence of a conspiracy will be found.

The chart above uses information contained in a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 9th and 11th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,303 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 3.1 points, and for registered voters is 2.8 point.

At Least 14 Trump Associates Met With The Russians

We now know that at least 14 Trump associates met with Russians during the 2016 campaign -- three family members, two business associates, and nine members of the Trump campaign. That's a lot, and it makes it more likely that collusion with the Russians to affect the 2016 election outcome did happen -- and it probably was at the direction of "Individual-1" (Donald Trump).

Is it really believable anymore that Trump had no knowledge of any of these 14 associates meeting with Russians? Of course not! We know that Trump is a micro-manager. Nothing happened in his businesses without his knowledge and direction, and he undoubtably carried that same micro-managing over to his campaign. This would be especially true of family members (Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, and Ivanka Trump), his campaign manager, (Paul Manafort) and his personal attorney (Michael Cohen).

Trump is still claiming there was no collusion, and that collusion was not a crime. The first is obviously false, and the second is merely a word game. Collusion is not a legal term. It's called conspiracy in the law, and it certainly is against the law.

It looks like "Individual-1" is in a lot of trouble!

The chart above is from The Washington Post.

It's Not Christmas Yet, But Donald Trump's Goose Is Cooked

(The caricature of a worried Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)

Donald Trump has spent months saying there was no collusion (conspiracy with Russia to affect the 2016 election). We now know that is just not true -- especially after seeing the sentencing recommendations for Trump associates revealed in the last few days.

The truth is there was collusion. Donald Trump is in a lot of trouble.

Here is part of the assessment by Max Bergmann and Sam Berger in The Daily Beast:

A flurry of recent activity this past week all points in the same direction: Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation will likely implicate the president, his campaign, and his close associates in aiding and abetting a Russian conspiracy against the United States to undermine the 2016 election.

First, Mueller has clearly identified collusion in the efforts of Trump aides and associates to contact WikiLeaks. In a draft plea agreement provided to conservative operative Jerome Corsi, Mueller details how Roger Stone, who the special counsel notes was in frequent contact with Donald Trump and senior campaign officials, directed Corsi to connect with WikiLeaks about the trove of stolen materials it received from Russia. Corsi subsequently communicated WikiLeaks’ release plan back to Stone, and the Trump campaign built its final message around the email release. That is collusion.

Second, we now know that Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn have provided evidence to Mueller related to collusion. In Cohen’s sentencing memo, Mueller said that Cohen provided his office with “useful information” on “Russia-related matters core to its investigation.” One of those central elements, according to the Justice Department: “any links and/or coordination” between the Kremlin and Trump campaign figures. Collusion, in other words.

In Flynn’s sentencing memo Mueller said that Flynn’s false statements to the FBI about his calls with the Russian ambassador during the transition were “material” to the investigation into “links or coordination between Russia and individuals associated with the Trump campaign.”

Third, Mueller has found evidence that Trump was compromised by a hostile foreign power during the election. In his plea deal, Cohen revealed that Trump had repeatedly lied to voters about the then-candidate’s financial ties Russia. While Trump claimed during the campaign to have no business dealings with Russia, he was negotiating a wildly lucrative business deal not simply with Russian businessmen, but also involving with the Kremlin itself. Trump’s team even reportedly tried to bribe Russian President Vladimir Putin by offering him a $50 million penthouse.

Worse, Russia not only knew that Trump was lying, but when investigators first started looking into this deal, the Kremlin helped Trump cover up what really happened. That made Trump doubly compromised: first, because he was eager to get the financial payout and second because Russia had evidence he was lying to the American people—evidence they could have held over Trump by threatening to reveal at any time. . . .

Fourth, we know that Trump has engaged in an increasingly brazen attempt to cover up his actions: installing a political crony to head the Department of Justice by potentially illegal means in an effort to shut down the investigation; using his former campaign chairman and convicted criminal Paul Manafort to find out information about Mueller’s investigation; and even appearing to offer Manafort a pardon if he helps him obstruct the Russia probe. These may be components of an obstruction of justice case, but they also provide strongly circumstantial data points as to how serious Trump himself views the allegations of collusion being levelled against him.

Lastly, federal prosecutors have told us Trump broke the law to influence the 2016 election by hiding evidence of his affairs. Trump clearly had no qualms about breaking the law to win an election. . . .

Mueller is coming. And he is clearly coming for Trump. Not simply for obstructing justice but for conspiring with a hostile foreign power to win an election. This is a scandal unlike any America has ever seen.