Two New North Carolina Polls Show Harris Up By 3 Points

 

The WRAL News Poll was conducted between September 4th and 7th of 900 North Carolina adults, and has a 4.9 point margin of error.

The Quinnipiac University Poll was conducted between September 4th and 8th of 940 likely North Carolina voters, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

What Are Authorities Trying To Hide In Shooting Of Brown?

One day after the conviction of Derek Chauvin in Minnesota, there was another police killing of an unarmed Black man. This time it was in North Carolina. But while the country was able to see what happened to George Floyd in Minnesota, very little is being released about the shooting of Andrew Brown, Jr. in North Carolina.

A few family members and one of their attorneys were allowed to see a 20 second snippet of the shooting from one officers body camera, and they were not given a copy of that. But there were seven officers on the scene -- all with body cameras. Why weren't the daily and their attorney allowed to see ALL of the footage from all officers -- and why weren't they given copies of all that footage. 

What are the authorities trying to hide? If the shooting was justified and there's nothing to hide, why isn't all of the footage being released to the public? There's something wrong here, and the public deserves to know what it is!

New Poll Has Biden Leading In N. Carolina & Tied In Georgia

These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 28-31, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,131 registered voters in Georgia and 1,152 in North Carolina. Margins of error for registered voters are +/- 3.4 points in Georgia and +/- 3.8 points in North Carolina.

Maine, N. Carolina, & Arizona Look Good For Senate Dems

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 22nd and 23rd of 561 registered voters in Maine.

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 22nd and 23rd of 939 registered voters in North Carolina.

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 21st and 22nd of 816 registered voters in Arizona.

The closer we get to Election Day, the more it looks like Democrats have a good chance of regaining control of the U.S. Senate. In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon leads by 5 points. In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham leads by 8 points. And in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly leads by 9 points.

Add to this the fact that polls have shown a decent chance for Democrats to pick up a seat in Colorado and Montana, and you have the makings of a Democratic Senate majority.

Fox Poll Shows Trouble For Trump In Four Red States

This Fox News Poll was done between June 20th and 23rd of 1,010 Florida voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This Fox New Poll was done between June 20th and 23rd of 1,013 Georgia voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This Fox News Poll was done between June 20th and 23rd of 1,012 North Carolina voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This Fox News Poll was done between June 20th and 23rd of 1,001 Texas voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas are all red states. Trump carried them all in 2016, and should easily carry them again in 2020. But that is not the case. The Fox News polls show him trailing Biden by 9 points in Florida, and by 1 or 2 points in the other three states (which is within the margin of error -- so he is virtually tied in those three).

This shows Trump is in deep electoral trouble.

New Poll Shows Trump Losing Ground In Battleground States

These charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 8th and 18th of 3,870 registered voters in Battleground States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina). The poll's margin of error for all the states is 1.8 points -- and for each state is between 4.1 and 4.6 points.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016, and that allowed him to squeak out an Electoral College win. But it is distinctly possible that he could lose all of them this year. He's looking more and more like a one term president.

These 5 Charts Should Worry Trump And Republicans

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June second of 1,002 Arizona voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 801 Wisconsin voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 803 Ohio voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a Public Policy Polling survey -- done on June 2nd and 3rd of 949 North Carolina voters.

This chart reflects the results of a Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between May 28th and June 1st of 1,166 Texas voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

In 2016, Donald Trump carried all five of these states. But polls are showing he could lose all five of them in 2020. He is trailing by 4 points in Arizona, by 9 points in Wisconsin, by 2 points in Ohio, by 4 points in North Carolina, and has only a 1 point advantage in Texas.

Two New Polls Show Candidate Support In North Carolina

North Carolina is one of the Super Tuesday states. The citizens of that state will vote in a primary on March 3rd. Two new polls have been released on voter preferences in North Carolina. Both show Joe Biden leading, with Bernie Sanders in second and Michael Bloomberg in third and Elizabeth Warren in fourth. No other candidate is in double-digits.

The blue bars reflect the results of the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on February 4th and 5th of 604 likely Democratic primary voters.

The green bars reflect the results of the High Point University Poll -- done between January 31st and February 6th of 225 likely Democratic primary voters.

Poll Shows Georgia And N. Carolina Could Go Blue In 2020

Public Policy Polling just surveyed 602 registered voters in Georgia on July 16th and 17th, and 581 registered voters in North Carolina on the same two days -- and the result was very interesting.

Those polled in Georgia had voted for Trump in 2016 by a 4 point margin. But those same voters now say they would vote for a Democrat this time by a 4 point margin.

Those polled in North Carolina had voted for Trump by a 3 point margin in 2016. But they now support a Democrat by a 5 point margin.

Of course, this does not guarantee a win for the Democratic presidential candidate in either state. But it does show that, if the Democrats nominate an acceptable candidate, and work hard to get out the vote, then both states could actually wind up in the blue column.

North Carolina Is Too Close To Call For The 2020 Election

This chart reflects the results of a new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina -- done on June 17th and 18th of a sample of 610 registered voters in North Carolina, with a 4 point margin of error.

It shows a very close presidential race in North Carolina right now. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 3 points and Bernie Sanders leads him by 1 point. Kamala Harris trails Trump by 1 point, Elizabeth Warren trails by 2 points, and Pete Buttigieg trails by 3 points.

Note that all of the above results are within the survey's margin of error of 4 points. That means none of the margins are really statistically significant, and the race is really too close to call right now. North Carolina could go either way (blue or red).

Poll Shows Biden Looks Strong In North Carolina

These charts are from a new Emerson College Poll -- done between May 31st and June 3rd of 932 registered voters in North Carolina, with a margin of error of 3.1 points. The two charts above only polled 397 Democrats, and has a margin of error of 4.9 points. The chart below, which pits leading Democratic candidates against Trump used the full sample of 932 voters.

Texas Should Look At N.C. On Proposed Bathroom Law

(The cartoon image above is by John Cole at NC Policy Watch.

The teabagger Republican lawmakers in the Texas legislature are considering a bathroom bill like the one passed by North Carolina last year. As the North Carolina legislators did, Texas legislators are whining about the "safety of the children" as an excuse to pass the law. That's ridiculous. It has nothing to do with safety, and everything to do with trying to find a way to appeal to christian fundamentalists by discriminating against the LGBT community (especially transgender citizens).

Before they pass this discriminatory law, they should probably look at what happened after North Carolina did it. The state became the laughingstock of the nation, suffered economic damage, and accomplished nothing toward keeping anyone safer.

And a new poll shows the law is currently very unpopular in North Carolina -- with opposition being 18 points over support, people feeling it has not made anyone safer by 22 points, people believing the state was economically damaged by 19 points, and people wanting the law repealed by 14 points.

The law has been an abysmal failure in North Carolina. Why on earth would Texas legislators want to follow in those footsteps?

The charts below are from a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between January 13th and 16th of a random sample of 953 North Carolina registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.2 points.

Democrats Need To Put More Emphasis On Senate Races

The chart above shows the poll averages (from RealClearPolitics) in 12 states with a Republican senator up for re-election this year. The Democrats need to take five of these seats to once again control the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Democrats have a significant lead in two of those races -- Wisconsin and Illinois. They are close in four other states, with some polls showing them leading and some showing them behind -- Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada. The other six races seem to be favoring Republicans rather significantly right now --Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and Arkansas.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, and I think she will be, she is going to need the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. Without that, she won't be able to do much. The Republicans will just do four years of obstructing anything she tries to do (just like they have done for the last few years to President Obama).

It seems obvious to me that the Democrats need to put more emphasis on many of these Senate seats.

New Polls For Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, & Ohio

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

• 761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
• 751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
• 775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
• 778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

New Polls For N. Hampshire, N. Carolina, And Pennsylvania

These are the latest polls in each of these three battleground states.

New Hampshire -- WMUR Granite State Poll (August 20-28) 559 voters (4.1 point moe)

North Carolina -- CBS News / YouGov Poll (August 30-September 2) 1088 voters (4 point moe)

Pennsylvania -- CBS News / YouGov Poll (August 30-September 2) 1091 voters (4.1 point moe)

August Presidential Polls For Ohio And North Carolina

These charts are from RealClearPolitics, and they show the polls taken in August regarding the presidential race in Ohio and in North Carolina. Both of these states are critical to Donald Trump's chances to win the White House. No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio, and North Carolina is a red state that a Republican must keep to reach 270 electoral votes.

The August polls show Trump is in trouble in both of these states. The average of the polls taken (which has proven more reliable than any single poll) show he is behind Hillary Clinton by 4 points in Ohio, and by 3 points in North Carolina.

Presidential Polls In Florida, N. Carolina, Virginia, Colorado

Chart was made from a recent NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll -- done between August 4th and 10th. A random sample was done of 1,012 voters in Florida, 1,030 voters in North Carolina, 1,026 voters in Virginia, and 1,037 voters in Colorado. The margin of error is 3 points for Colorado, and 3.1 points for the other three states.

This is not good news for "the Donald". If he loses Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, there really is no path to 270 electoral votes for him. Currently he trails by 5 points in Florida, 9 points in North Carolina, 12 points in Virginia, and 12 points in Colorado.

Pennsylvania For Clinton -- Missouri & N. Carolina Toss-Ups

The ABC 27 News / Susquehanna Polling & Research Survey was done between July 31st and August 4th of a random sample of 772 likely voters in Pennsylvania, and has a 3.5 point margin of error.

The Public Policy Polling Survey was done between August 5th and 7th of a random sample of 830 likely voters in North Carolina, and has a margin of error of 3.4 points.

The Missouri Scout / Remington Research Group Poll was done on August 5th and 6th of a random sample of 1,280 likely voters in Missouri, and has a 3 point margin of error.

These polls show Hillary Clinton has a fairly comfortable 9 point lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania -- a state Trump is counting on to put him over the top. But there is even worse news in two other states. North Carolina and Missouri usually wind up in the Republican column, but that is now in doubt.

Clinton has a 2 point lead in North Carolina, while Trump leads by 2 in Missouri -- but both of those edges are within the poll's margin of error. That means the race is extremely close in both states, and could go either way.

Clinton Is Leading In Four Important Battleground States

This chart reflects the results of a new NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll -- done between July 5th and 11th of a random sample of 794 registered voters in Colorado (moe 3.5 points), 871 registered voters in Florida (moe 3.3 points), 907 registered voters in North Carolina (moe 3.3 points), and 876 registered voters in Virginia (mow 3.3 points).

It shows Hillary Clinton leading the presidential race in all three states over Donald Trump -- by 6 points in Colorado, by 5 points in Florida, by 6 points in North Carolina, and by 7 points in Virginia. This is important because if Trump is to win the White House, he must carry these states (especially Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia).

Clinton Extends Her Delegate Lead In March 15th Primaries

(The map above of March 15th primary states is from bbc.com.)

Five delegate-rich states went to the polls to vote in the Democratic primary on March 15th -- Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. Hillary Clinton had a very good night, winning four of those states -- Florida by 31.2 points, North Carolina by 13.9 points, Ohio by 13.8 points, and Illinois by 1.6 points. Clinton and Sanders virtually split the vote in Missouri. As I write this, with 99% of the vote in, Clinton leads by a scant 0.2 points.

Here are the voting results in those states:

FLORIDA

Clinton...............64.5%
Sanders...............33.3%

NORTH CAROLINA

Clinton...............54.6%
Sanders...............40.7%

OHIO

Clinton...............56.5%
Sanders...............42.7%

ILLINOIS

Clinton...............50.4%
Sanders...............48.8%

MISSOURI

Clinton...............49.6%
Sanders...............49.4%

What this means is that Hillary Clinton has significantly increased her lead in delegates over Bernie Sanders. Here is the current total of delegates for each candidate (with some delegates still to be determined in the March 15th states):

Hillary Clinton...............1559
Bernie Sanders...............800