Respected Poll Has Harris With A Lead In Red State Iowa!

The chart above is from the Des Moines Register / Mediacom / Selzer & Co Poll -- done between October 28th and 31st of a sample of 808 likely Iowa voters, with a 3.4 point margin of error.
 

Final Pre-Caucus Poll Has Trump With A Huge Lead

The charts above are from The Des Moines Register / NBC News / Mediacom Poll -- done between January 7th and 12th of 705 registered Iowa voters likely to attend the GOP caucus, with a 3.7 point margin of error.

Seven Numbers Tell The Story In Iowa

The New York Times sums up the GOP presidential campaign in Iowa in seven numbers: 

28 percentage points

Mr. Trump’s lead in the Iowa Poll

3,000,000

The number of doors a pro-DeSantis super PAC has knocked on nationwide

-33 Fahrenheit

The projected minimum windchill forecast in Des Moines on Monday evening

3 percent

Nikki Haley’s share of the vote among Republicans who did not graduate from college in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll

$46,499,124.63

The amount of spending from super PACs opposing Ron DeSantis

$5,865

The DeSantis campaign’s TV ad spending this week in Iowa in the conservative Sioux City market

0

The former president’s total debate appearances

Picking A Candidate In Iowa In The Winter (Satire)

In this bit of satire, Alexandra Petri (The Washington Post)  pokes fun at starting the presidential primary in Iowa in the winter. She writes:

Time for a civics lesson! In the United States, what is the first step we take to decide who gets to be on the ballot for president?

Simple! We have all the people who want to run for president go to Iowa for, say, 11 months. First, we have them eat corn under intense scrutiny and be photographed sliding down a large slide. (This must tell us something important about them — perhaps how quickly they could get down from an international summit?) They then go to a lot of event centers and restaurants and shake hands and give stump speeches as the weather gets steadily colder.

And then, we pick a weekend — ideally in the middle of January. A holiday weekend when it is so cold and snowy that Iowa, a place that is actually accustomed to snow, begins Friday by canceling school. A weekend when the local weather team is urgently telling you not to leave home if you can possibly help it, because if you are outside for five minutes with any exposed skin, you will develop frostbite. A weekend when the weather is anticipated to hit minus-25 degrees with wind chill, and minus-2 without it — a temperature so low that I had to check that it was, indeed, in Fahrenheit, given that water freezes at 32 degrees. I don’t know what water does at minus-2 degrees, but I guess I will find out!

And to close out that specific holiday weekend, we see who gets the most people to go to a middle school auditorium at night and, after listening to a series of speeches, vote for them. And this is how we winnow down who gets to be on the ballot for the whole country!

I see some problems with this system. I would see more problems with it, but the visibility is not very good here with all the snow. It is like being in a snow globe that someone has shaken vigorously, except you cannot turn things upside down to get them to stop. I spent a few minutes outside trying to see whether I could get coffee, and when I returned, I looked like the last survivor of a failed polar expedition. I felt as though I should apologize to all the boosters of my expedition for not finding the Northwest Passage.

And it is a balmy 18 degrees now! I am going to long for these temperatures come Monday, the day of the actual caucuses! But still, it is already so bad out there that not just Nikki Haley, not just Vivek Ramaswamy, not just Donald Trump, but even Ron DeSantis’s Never Back Down PAC (which has “Never Back Down” in the name) have been calling off events.

Look, it is barely an insult to the Republican candidates to say that it is difficult to imagine being excited enough by any of them to want to go outside in this weather. "We need an accountant in the White House!” is hardly an applause line in a warm room with a bar in it.

I can imagine, perhaps, being excited enough by Haley’s candidacy that I would go to a coffee shop in normal temperatures, if I already wanted to go. I cannot imagine getting 10 friends to come out with me in a sub-zero snowstorm to caucus for Haley. I can barely get 10 friends to come do fun things in normal conditions.

And this is how we wind up with Trump! He is a threat to our democracy, something he keeps excitedly shouting at rallies and having his followers intimate in menacing voicemails to the judges evaluating cases against him. Fortunately, there are many ways of stopping him from becoming the next president. Unfortunately, there are many ways of stopping him from becoming the next president, which means that each individual time, you can say to yourself, “Eh, it’s too cold. I’ll get the next one.”

Look, I think it’s bad any time there is an obstacle to voting. So I already do not love the caucuses, a system that requires people to be available for an extended period of time on a weeknight, something that I have discovered, as a parent, is literally impossible. Candidly, I do not think that, in order to express a preference about who gets to be the next president, you should have to load up a sled behind a team of huskies, wrap yourself in approximately 48 layers of insulation, announce, “I am just going outside and may be some time,” and find a babysitter on a Monday night. Hell of a way to choose a president!

No. This is far too cold for Hell.

Donald Trump Has Increased His Lead In Iowa

The charts above are from a new Des Moines Register / NBC News / Mediacom Poll -- done between December 2nd and 7th of 502 registered voters likely to attend the GOP caucus. The margin of error for the poll is 4.4 points.

Trump Has A Large Lead In Iowa And New Hampshire

 

The charts above are from the recent CBS News / YouGov Poll.

These CBS News/YouGov surveys were conducted between September 15-24, 2023. They are based on representative samples of 1,011 registered voters in Iowa and 943 in New Hampshire. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Results here are reported among likely Republican caucus/primary voters, and have a margin of error of ±6.1 points in Iowa (n=458) and ±5.4 points in New Hampshire (n=502).

New Iowa, Florida, & Michigan Polls Have Trump In Trouble

This chart reflects the results of the Des Moines Register / Mediacom Iowa Poll -- done between June 7th and 10th of 674 likely Iowa voters, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the American Greatness / TIPP Battleground Poll -- done between June 9th and 11th of 910 registered voters in Florida.

This chart reflects the results of the Detroit Free Press / EPIC-MRA Poll -- done between May 31st and June 4th of 600 likely Michigan voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the American Greatness / TIPP Battleground Poll -- done between June 9th and 12th of 907 registered Michigan voters.

If these polls are correct, then Trump is sinking fast. He's in a dead heat with Biden in Iowa -- a state he won by 9 points in 2016. He is 10 points behind Biden in Florida. And two polls in Michigan show him 16 points and 13 points behind Biden.

New Polls Show Texas and Iowa Are Toss-Ups In 2020

This chart reflects the results of a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done on June 3rd and 4th of 682 Texas voters.

This chart reflects the results of a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done on June 3rd and 4th of 963 Iowa voters.

Texas and Iowa are both normally very red states. In 2016, Donald Trump won Texas by 9 points (52.5% to 43.5%), and Iowa by 9.5 points (51.7% to 42.2%). But 2020 looks very different. Trump and Biden are in a statistical tie in both states, and it is within the realm of possibility for Trump to lose both states.

Iowa Democratic Party Leadership Should Be Ashamed

I had planned to use this space to report the results of the Iowa caucuses. That is not going to happen now.

It's not going to happen because the Iowa Democratic Party has demonstrated an unbelievable level of incompetence. The leadership of that state party has shamed themselves, and made the party look like it cannot even hold a simple election where results are reported in a timely manner.

They created an app that did not work on caucus night. That's inexcusable. That app should have been tested and then retested several times. And they should have had a telephone back-up system that was adequate to step in if the app failed (as it surely did). There were precinct chairs that waited on the phone for hours to report their results. That's also inexcusable.

There is only one conclusion we can reach after the debacle in Iowa. The leadership of the Iowa Democratic Party is incompetent.

When the Iowa Democrats meet in their state convention, they need to elect new state leadership -- leadership that is competent.

Will Iowa Have A Clear Winner? (Probably Not)

Iowa will send 41 pledged delegates to the National Democratic convention. Today, the process of choosing those delegates begins.

The media seems to think a candidate must win in Iowa to be viable. That is not necessarily true. While Walter Mondale, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton won in Iowa and went on to get the party's nomination, others got the nomination without winning in Iowa -- like George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and Bill Clinton.

Will there be a clear winner in Iowa this year? There is a good chance there won't be. Four candidates are doing fairly well in the state (Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg). It is very possible that those four get the most votes and split the 41 delegates between them.

If that happens, the voting will have to move on to other states to find a race favorite -- maybe all the way to Super Tuesday on March 3rd (when 14 states votes).

The Des Moines Register Cancels Release Of Its Poll

I had planned to use this space to report the results of the Des Moines Register Poll. That poll is considered the "gold standard" of Iowa polls, and would have been the final Iowa Poll before the caucus was held. But on Saturday, the day the poll was to be released, the newspaper canceled the poll's release.

Here is how the newspaper reported its cancellation:

Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

Des Moines Register Endorses Warren For President

With only a few days to go before the Iowa Democratic caucus, the state's largest newspaper (the Des Moines Register) has endorsed a candidate in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

The paper's editorial board has endorsed Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Here is what they had to say about their endorsement.

The outstanding caliber of Democratic candidates makes it difficult to choose just one. 

But ultimately Iowa caucusgoers need to do that. Who would make the best president at this point in the country’s history? At a time when the economic deck has become so stacked against working Americans that the gap between rich and poor is the highest in more than 50 years? At a time when a generation of war has stressed military families and sapped the treasury?

The Des Moines Register editorial board endorses Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses as the best leader for these times. 

The senior U.S. senator from Massachusetts is not the radical some perceive her to be. She was a registered Republican until 1996. She is a capitalist. “I love what markets can do,” she said. “They are what make us rich, they are what create opportunity.” 

But she wants fair markets, with rules and accountability. She wants a government that works for people, not one corrupted by cash.

A former Harvard professor and expert in bankruptcy law, she helped set up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The agency was specifically designed to prevent a repeat of the banking crisis and look out for little guys swindled by lenders and credit card companies. 

She believes government should actively work to prevent and respond to abusive practices that jeopardize individuals and the country’s economy. 

Warren doesn’t measure the health of the economy by looking at the stock market or an unemployment rate that doesn’t count the longtime jobless or chronically underemployed. She measures it by how working families are doing. Many are not doing well, and Warren seeks major reforms to help them.

A qualification: Some of her ideas for “big, structural change” go too far. This board could not endorse the wholesale overhaul of corporate governance or cumulative levels of taxation she proposes. While the board has long supported single-payer health insurance, it believes a gradual transition is the more realistic approach. But Warren is pushing in the right direction.

She believes access to health care is a human right. 

She would make climate change a top priority and use her executive power to roll back Trump administration policies that prop up fossil fuels. 

She says corporations should have less Washington influence, children should be protected from gun violence, child care should be affordable, immigrants deserve compassion, mass incarceration should end and the wealthy should pay more in taxes.

Those ideas are not radical. They are right. They would improve life in America, and they are generally shared by the other Democratic candidates, who bring their own strengths to this race. 

Former Vice President Joe Biden would restore credibility in the White House and respect among allies around the world. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg brings refreshingly smart, youthful optimism. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota offers a track record of bipartisan achievement. Much like Warren, Bernie Sanders champions the working class.

But at this moment, our country needs more. We need a president who can work the levers of government to translate ideas into signed laws and effective regulations. We need a president committed to bringing our troops home from open-ended foreign entanglements. We need a president who understands that the American dream itself is at risk: the ideal that someone who works hard and plays by the rules can get ahead, and that their children will do even better. With Warren, the Oval Office will be occupied by someone who has made rebuilding the middle class her life’s work.

These tall tasks will require resilience and courage in the face of inevitable attacks from the GOP — both during the campaign and while in office. 

Warren has proven she is tough and fearless.

But toughness can also be perceived as divisive, as can rhetoric that vilifies the wealthy, lobbyists and corporations that employ millions of people. Relentless attack mode threatens to further fracture a country riven by party, income and racial divides.

Unifying the country may not be possible, but to gain the support required to govern, she must show that her vision will lift people up rather than divide them.

Warren’s competence, respect for others and status as the nation’s first female president would be a fitting response to the ignorance, sexism and xenophobia of the Trump Oval Office. 

She is a thinker, a policy wonk and a hard worker. She remembers her own family’s struggles to make ends meet and her own desperation as a working mother needing child care.

She cares about people, and she will use her seemingly endless energy and passion to fight for them. 

At this moment, when the very fabric of American life is at stake, Elizabeth Warren is the president this nation needs.

Newest Poll Of Iowa Democrats

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Focus on Rural America Iowa Poll -- done between January 15th and 18th of 500 likely Democratic caucus attendees. It has a 4.4 point margin of error.

New CBS News Poll For Democrats In Iowa/N. Hampshire

These charts are from a new CBS News / YouGov Poll in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The polls were done between December 27th and January 3rd in both states. They questioned 953 Democrats and Leaners in Iowa (with a 3.8 point margin of error) and 519 Democrats and Leaners in New Hampshire (with a 5.3 point margin of error).

They also predicted the number of delegates that would be awarded if the caucus and primary actually broke down according to the poll. If that happened, then the delegate count after these states voted would be -- Sanders 21, Biden 20, Warren 13, and Buttigieg 11.

New Iowa Poll Shows Democratic Race Is Close

The charts above are from the latest Iowa State University / Civiqs Poll -- done between December 12th and 16th of 632 likely Democratic caucus attendees in Iowa. The poll has a 4.9 point margin of error.

Democratic Race In Iowa Has Had 3 Different Leaders

The chart above reflects the results of three different Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom Polls. It shows the support of Iowa for Democratic candidates in June, in September, and in November. The most recent poll was done between November 8th and 13th of a sample of 500 Democratic caucus goers, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points. The polls for June and September were similar.

The latest poll shows Pete Buttigieg is now leading in Iowa, followed by Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders. No other candidate comes close to the support that those four have.

Back in June, Joe Biden was the leader in Iowa, In September, it was Elizabeth Warren. Now, it is Pete Buttigieg. It just shows how fluid the race remains in Iowa -- the first state where votes will be made. Will Buttigieg still be the leader a month from now? Maybe and maybe not. There are still over two months before the state's caucus, and things could (and likely will) change again.

Poll Has Buttigieg Leading Iowa (But Lagging Nationally)

The chart above is from the Monmouth University Poll -- done between November 7th and 11th of 966 registered Democrats and Independents in Iowa. The margin of error is 4.6 points.

It shows that Pete Buttigieg has climbed into the lead in Iowa with 22% support. But Biden (19%) and Warren (18%) are both within the poll's margin of error, so it could be considered a three-way tie. Sanders is in fourth at 13%, and no one else tops 5%.

This is indicative of the excellent organization Buttigieg has in Iowa. But he is not as organized on the national level. He is counting on a good finish in Iowa to boost him nationally.

The chart below is also from the Monmouth University Poll. It was done between October 30th and November 3rd of a national sample of 345 registered Democrats/Leaners, and has a 5.3 point margin of error. Note that Buttigieg is not in double-digits nationally, and is running far behind Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

New Poll Has Iowa As A Four-Way Free-For-All For Dems

These charts reflect the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll of Iowa voters. It was done between October 30th and November 5th of 698 likely Democratic caucus attendees, and has a 4.5 point margin of error.

It shows four candidates leading the rest of the field -- Elizabeth Warren (20%), Pete Buttigieg (19%), Bernie Sanders (17%), and Joe Biden (15%). Considering the margin of error, those candidates are all very close and no real front-runner can be clearly shown. In other words, any of the four could win the state -- or they could divide the state's delegates fairly evenly.

It will be interesting to see how the next couple of months goes. Will one or two separate themselves, or will they stay bunched up?

New Iowa Poll Shows Warren Leading A Four-Way Race

These charts are from the new New York Times / Siena College Poll in Iowa. They questioned 439 Democratic caucus attendees between October 25th and 30th. The poll has a 4.7 point margin of error.

It shows Warren leading with 22%, but three other candidates are very close -- Sanders (19%), Buttigieg (18%), and Biden (17%). Considering the poll's margin of error, it looks like a four-way race in Iowa.

The chart below, from the same poll, shows some issues supported by Iowa Democrats.

Shocking New Iowa Poll Has Warren & Buttigieg Leading

The chart above reflects the results of the new Iowa State University / Civiqs Poll -- done between October 18th and 22nd of a sample of 598 likely Democratic caucus attendees in Iowa, with a 5 point margin of error.

The shocking part is not that Elizabeth Warren is leading in Iowa. Other polls have also shown that. It is that Pete Buttigieg has jumped over both Sanders and Biden to rest in second place. Buttigieg trails Warren by 8 points, but leads Sanders by 2 points and Biden by 8 points.