NYT/Siena Poll Shows Biden Leading Four Battleground States

 

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 11th of 445 likely New Hampshire voters, with a 5.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 760 likely voters in Wisconsin, with a 4.7 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 462 likely Nevada Voters, with a 5.3 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the new New York Times /Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 814 likely voters in Minnesota, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

Bernie Sanders Wins Big In Nevada

I was hoping to report the results of the Nevada primary -- the number of delegates each candidate won there. But it looks like Nevada is having as much trouble reporting results as Iowa did. Even though they started the caucuses much earlier in the day than Iowa did, they still don't have a majority of the precincts reporting 10 hours later.

The one thing we do know is that it looks like a big win for Bernie Sanders. It's looking like he will likely wind up with over 40% of the votes.

Hopefully, tomorrow I'll be able to tell you how many delegates went to each candidate. As I write this, Bernie has won 13 delegates and the other 23 have yet to be decided.

Thank goodness that South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states all have primaries -- not caucuses. We should have the results from them in a reasonable amount of time.

Two Differing Polls Show How Fluid The Race Is In Nevada

The chart above reflects the results of the Data for Progress Poll in Nevada -- done between February 12th and 15th of 766 likely Nevada caucus voters, with a 3.4 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the Point Blank Political Poll in Nevada -- done between February 13th and 15th of 266 likely caucus voters, with a 5.6 point margin of error.

Cable news commenters have remarked about how hard it is for polls to predict the outcome of the Democratic caucus in Nevada. The two polls above show this is true. One has Sanders leading, while the other has Steyer leading.

Why is this? One reason is the small samples used in the Nevada polls (making it important just who they questioned). Another is that many voters seem to be having trouble making up their minds. And then their is the unique nature of the Nevada voting -- with each early voter making up to 5 ranked choices. If their first choice is not viable enough to qualify for delegates, then the vote-counters go to the second choice (and so on).

Since delegates are not awarded on just the first choice of voters, it makes it difficult to see how delegates will be awarded -- and it could be very late before we know who won how many delegates in the state.

New Nevada Poll Has Sanders In The Lead

The chart above is from the Las Vegas Review-Journal / AARP Nevada / WPA Intelligence Poll -- done between February 11th and 13th of 413 likely Nevada caucus voters, and has a 4.8 point margin of error.

Steyer Moves Up In South Carolina And Nevada Polls

The chart above reflects the results of a new Fox News Poll -- done between January 5th and 8th of a sample of 808 South Carolina Democratic primary voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of a new Fox News Poll -- done between January 5th and 8th of a sample of 635 Democratic caucus voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

The polls show Joe Biden is still leading in both states -- with 36% in South Carolina and 23% in Nevada. That's not surprising. The real surprise in both of these polls is Tom Steyer. He has moved up to second place in South Carolina with 15%, and a tie for third place in Nevada with 12%.

These are the biggest numbers Steyer has posted in any poll, and they were good enough to get him on the stage in the next debate.

It will be interesting to see new polls for Iowa and New Hampshire. Has he moved up there also, or is he still just an also-ran in those states? And if he doesn't get delegates out of Iowa and New Hampshire, will his support diminish in South Carolina and Nevada?

We're less than a month away from voting to begin, and the race is starting to get interesting.

NOTE -- Spending big money on TV ads in these two states may be paying off for Steyer. He has spent over $14 million in South Carolina and over $10 million in Nevada -- far more than any other Democrat.

New Democratic Polls For Nevada And South Carolina

This chart reflects the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between September 22nd and 26th of 324 voters likely to participate in the Nevada Democratic caucus. The margin of error is 7.1 points.

This chart reflects the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between September 22nd and 26th of 406 voters likely to participate in the South Carolina Democratic primary. The margin of error is 5.9 points.

According to this poll, Nevada looks like a free-for-all among the three leading Democrats. While Biden and Sanders lead with 22% each, Warren is close behind at 18% -- and considering the large margin of error, the three are in a virtual tie. Everyone else is far behind.

It is much different in South Carolina. Biden leads with 37% -- 21 points ahead of Warren (16%) and 26 points ahead of Sanders (11%). No one else tops 4%.

NOTE -- The charts include only the candidates able to get at least 1% support.

Biden And Warren Lead The Pack In Nevada

This chart shows the results of a new Monmouth University Poll in Nevada. It was done between June 6th and 11th of 370 Nevada voters likely to participate in the Democratic caucus. It has a 5.1 point margin of error.

It shows that Joe Biden has a 17 point lead over Elizabeth Warren among Nevada Democrats, and Warren has a 6 point lead over Bernie Sanders. They are the only candidates to be in double figures.

Presidential Polls In Pennsylvania And Nevada

This Emerson College Poll was done March 26th and 28th of 808 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 points. It included 359 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.1 points.

This Emerson College Poll was done between March 28th and 30th of 719 registered voters in Nevada, with a 3.6 point margin of error. It included 310 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.5 points.

Nevada Becomes The 5th State For Legal Marijuana

(This map on legal marijuana is from governing.com.)

Yesterday (July 1st), Nevada became the fifth state where the sale and possession of small amounts of marijuana is legal. After passing the legalization initiative in the last election, Nevada joined four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska) in implementing that legalization. They expect the tax on marijuana sales to bring the state about $60 million in revenue in the next two years. I think that's probably a very low estimate.

By early next year, the number of states with legal marijuana will climb to eight states. Massachusetts, California, and Maine have all voted to legalize the gentle herb. The legalization will actually go into effect in Massachusetts on December 15th, in California on January 1st, and in Maine next February.

The genie is now out of the bottle -- and I expect several more states to jump on the legalization bandwagon in the next few years.

Four More States Legalize Marijuana Possession And Use

(This image is from opensecrets.org.)

Not all of the news fromTuesday night's election was bad news. Four more states have legalized the possession and use of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use. The states are California, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Maine. The results of the first three states are final, and while Maine is very close it looks like it is also going to pass. Here are the results for all four states:

CALIFORNIA (100% reporting)
For...............4,957,215 (56.04%)
Against...............3,889,080 (43.96%)

MASSACHUSETTS (99.9% reporting)
For...............3,491,808 (53.6%)
Against...............3,024,360 (46.4%)

NEVADA (100% reporting)
For...............602,400 (54.5%)
Against...............503,615 (46.5%)

MAINE (98% reporting)
For...............752,246 (50.2%)
Against...............745,872 (49.8%)

Assuming the yes vote in Maine holds up, there are now eight states that have legalized the recreational use of marijuana.

Democrats Need To Put More Emphasis On Senate Races

The chart above shows the poll averages (from RealClearPolitics) in 12 states with a Republican senator up for re-election this year. The Democrats need to take five of these seats to once again control the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Democrats have a significant lead in two of those races -- Wisconsin and Illinois. They are close in four other states, with some polls showing them leading and some showing them behind -- Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada. The other six races seem to be favoring Republicans rather significantly right now --Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and Arkansas.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, and I think she will be, she is going to need the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. Without that, she won't be able to do much. The Republicans will just do four years of obstructing anything she tries to do (just like they have done for the last few years to President Obama).

It seems obvious to me that the Democrats need to put more emphasis on many of these Senate seats.

Polls For Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana

Virginia -- Quinnipiac University Poll (August 9-16) 808 likely voters, 3.5 point moe

Iowa -- Quinnipiac University Poll (August 9-16) 846 likely voters, 3.4 point moe

Colorado -- Quinnipiac University Poll (August 9-16) 830 likely voters, 3.4 point moe

Nevada -- Suffolk University Poll (August 15-17) 500 likely voters

Indiana -- Monmouth University Poll (August 13-16) 403 likely voters, 4.9 point moe

Presidential Polls In Virginia, Nevada, And Arizona

Chart is from a CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between August 2nd and 5th of a random sample of 1,181 Virginia voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points.

Chart is from a CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between August 2nd and 5th of a random sample of 993 Nevada voters, with a margin of error of 4.6 points.

Chart is from a CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between August 2nd and 5th of a random sample of 1095 Arizona voters, with a margin of error of 4.8 points.

Hillary Clinton is doing very well in Virginia -- with a 12 point lead over Donald Trump. Nevada and Arizona are much closer. Clinton has a 2 point lead in Nevada and Trump has a two point lead in Arizona. Both of those margins are well within the poll's margins of error, meaning those two states could go either way. Nevada was expected to be close, but Arizona was supposed to be solidly in the GOP camp. The fact that it isn't should worry Trump supporters.

Bernie Supporters Embarrass Themselves In Nevada

(Photo of Nevada police protecting Democratic officials at the state convention from The Blaze.)

Bernie supporters have been claiming they wanted a fair process, but they showed last weekend that is just not true -- they want their candidate, and they really don't care about fairness or party rules.

Hillary Clinton won a slim victory in the Nevada caucuses, and should get a few more delegates out of that state than Bernie Sanders because of that. But the delegates for Sanders weren't happy with that. They decided to strong-arm the convention to get more national delegates for their candidate. They tried to change the party rules, and when voted down, became unruly -- so unruly that the police had to be called, and the hotel where the convention was being held had to shut it down.

They screamed at the officials trying to run the convention (including screaming obscenities), threw chairs, and generally made asses of themselves. And even after the convention was shut down, they continued this ridiculous behavior -- including making death threats to party officials.

This is unacceptable behavior for anyone in the Democratic Party -- regardless of who they support. It makes Democrats, and especially progressives, look bad. It makes us look like the extremists that Republicans claim we are.

If this is indicative of the "new" people that Bernie claims to have brought to the party, then we don't need them. Let them follow through on their threats to stay at home or vote third party on election day. I don't think there are enough of them to make a difference in the November election, but even if there is, this is not the kind of hooligans we want running our party.

Trump Wins Big In Nevada - Takes GOP Delegate Lead

(Graphic image is by DonkeyHotey.)

RESULTS OF GOP NEVADA CAUCUS:

Trump...............34,531 (45.91%)
Rubio...............17,940 (23.85%)
Cruz...............16,079 (21.38%)
Carson...............3,619 (4.81%)
Kasich...............2,709 (3.60%)

AND THE CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT:

Trump...............81
Rubio...............17
Cruz...............17
Kasich...............6
Carson...............4

Donald Trump's Nevada victory was huge. He doubled the votes (and percentage) of the next two candidates (Rubio & Cruz). Some political pundits are ready to crown him as the GOP nominee -- saying the race is all but over. I certainly wouldn't go that far, but he does seem to have a significant advantage right now -- and it could be over soon if Rubio and Cruz don't start winning some states pretty soon.

Cruz's home state of Texas will vote in less than a week. Cruz was counting on winning over 50% of the vote there (which would have given him all of Texas' 155 delegates). However, recent polls have shown he is losing ground, and while he may still win a plurality of the votes there, will probably have to split Texas delegates with Trump. That would be a devastating blow for the Cruz campaign.

Rubio is not sitting much better. He's also needs to win in his home state of Florida (which votes on March 15th). Most polls, however, are showing he could actually lose to Trump there.

Hillary Clinton Wins A Majority Of Nevada Caucus Delegates

(Graphic image above is by DonkeyHotey.)

Bernie Sanders had high hopes of winning the Nevada Democratic caucuses. He had spent twice as much money as Hillary Clinton did on ads in that state, and had more campaign workers on the ground trying to get supporters to the polls. But as the caucus results began to roll in, it was apparent that he just couldn't pull it off.

This is a huge defeat for Sanders, even though the final delegate vote was fairly close. With South Carolina coming up in a week, and Super Tuesday just three days behind that, he needed to show he could win in a state with a diverse population -- more diverse than the nearly all-white states of Iowa and New Hampshire (where he did well). Nevada was viewed by most as Sanders best chance to show he could win a state with a diverse population.

It looks like Hillary has won Nevada by about 5 to 6 points, and has taken over 600 more delegates than Sanders out of the about 12,000 precinct delegates chosen. That means Clinton will gat a majority of Nevada's delegates when national delegates are picked at the state convention.

Here's the precinct delegates chosen (and the percentages):

(96% reporting)
Clinton...............6211 (52.7%)
Sanders...............5562 (47.3%)

And here is the current national delegate total:

Clinton...............502
Sanders...............70

How did Clinton win the Nevada caucuses? Here are some telling numbers.

Sanders won among men by 53% to 44%, while Clinton won among women by 57% to 41%. But women outvoted men by 56% to 44%.

Sanders won  among those aged 17 to 44 by 72% to 25%, while Clinton won among those 45 & older by 66% to 31%. But the older group outvoted the young group by 63% to 37%.

Sanders won the white vote by 49% to 47%, while Clinton won among non-whites by 56% to 42%. Whites outvoted non-whites by 59% to 41%, but the slim margin among whites wasn't enough to overcome the bigger margin among non-whites.

Clinton won among those making less than $50,000 by 50% to 48%, and among those making more than $50,000 by 51% to 45%.

Sanders won among Independents by 71% to 23%, while Clinton won among Democrats by 58% to 40%. Democrats made up 81% of voters, while Independents only made up 18%.

In short, the groups supporting Hillary Clinton simply voted in larger numbers than the groups supporting Bernie Sanders.

Last Nevada Poll Shows Clinton With A Small Lead

Nevada Democrats (and Democratic leaners) go to their caucuses today to determine who they will support for the Democratic presidential nomination. The last poll before those caucuses is the Gravis Marketing Poll -- done on February 14th and 15th of a random sample of 516 likely Democratic caucus participants, with a margin of error of 4 points.

It shows Hillary Clinton with a 6 point lead over Bernie Sanders. That's not a huge lead -- and the winner will obviously be the one who does the best at getting their supporters to the caucus.

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fivethirtyeight.com gives Clinton a 72% chance of winning the Nevada caucus -- and predicts the final result will be Clinton 52.4% and Sanders 46.0%.

New Democratic Polls For Nevada-South Carolina-Virginia

CNN / ORC Poll (Feb 10-15) 282 likely Nevada Democratic voters (6 point moe)

American Research Group Poll (Feb 14-16) 400 likely South Carolina Democratic voters (5 point moe)

Christopher Newport University Poll (Feb 3-14) 286 likely Virginia Democratic voters (7.3 point moe)

It Looks Like A Close Democratic Race In Nevada (Not True)

These are the results of a new Free Beacon / Target Point Poll -- done between February 8th and 10th of a random sample of 1,236 Nevada Democrats, with a margin of error of 2.9 points.

It looks like Nevada is shaping up to be a very tough fight between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

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I want to apologize to my readers for bringing you this "poll". It turns out that it's a GOP "dirty trick" to hurt the Clinton campaign. This is a "push poll" by a far-right-wing website. You can read all about it here.

If you don't know what a "push poll" is, here's one definition from Wikipedia:

A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of voters under the guise of conducting a poll.

In a push poll, large numbers of voters are contacted briefly (often less than 60 seconds), and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo or knowledge gleaned from opposition research on an opponent.

Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning.

Nevada Voters Favor Clinton And Trump Over The Others

We've seen a ton of polls about New Hampshire and Iowa, and every now and then we'll get one about South Carolina (which has the 3rd presidential contest scheduled), but most pollsters are ignoring Nevada, which is the fourth state to choose it delegates. So it was nice to see this poll from Gravis Marketing -- done between December 23rd and 27th of a random sample of 326 Democrats and 406 Republicans. The margin of error for both parties is 5 points.

It shows Donald Trump with a comfortable lead (13 points) in the Nevada's GOP race, and Hillary Clinton with an even more comfortable lead of 23 points among Nevada Democrats.