Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Dead Heat

This chart shows the results of a new Bluegrass Poll -- conducted of 800 Kentucky adults between September 30th and October 2nd for the Lexington Herald-Leader, The Louisville Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV (and has a 3.7 margin of error).

I have seen a lot of Democrats celebrating the result of this poll online, and I admit that it is encouraging, but we need to be realistic. The 2 point lead by Alison Grimes over Mitch McConnell is within the poll's margin of error -- so all we can really draw from this poll is that the race is still a dead heat, and either candidate could win. That's still pretty amazing, considering Democrat Grimes is running against the Senate Minority Leader (who a year ago was expected to win easily).

This race will be won by which party gets the most voters to the poll on election day. Vote Kentuckians! Vote in large numbers! A big turnout could easily give Grimes the win.

Thoughts On The Kentucky Senate Race

These charts are from information contained in a new poll on the Kentucky Senate race. It is the SurveyUSA Poll -- done between August 25th and 27th of 569 likely Kentucky voters, with a 4.2 point margin of error. The top chart shows the results for all adults, and the bottom one gives the demographic breakdown.

The Louisville Courier-Journal requested the poll, and they printed it under the headline "McConnell expands lead in Bluegrass Poll". I'm not at all sure that headline is justified. Note that McConnell's lead is within the poll's margin of error -- which means he may not have a lead at all (at least not one that can be determined in a statistically significant way).

I was a bit disappointed in the demographic breakdown regarding the women's vote. It shows Grimes with only a 1 point lead among women. She is going to have to do much better than that to beat McConnell. If that poll number is correct, Grimes will need to get most of the 7% undecided among women, and then have women vote in larger numbers than men -- and both of those things could easily happen.

But there was something else in that SurveyUSA Poll -- something that could have a real effect on the outcome of the election. The poll asked Kentuckians whether they wanted to see the minimum wage raised from $7.25 an hour to $10.10 an hour, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. Note that every demographic group (except those making more than $80,000 a year) showed majority support for raising the minimum wage.

This is an issue that Mitch McConnell is on the wrong side of -- and he has not only helped to kill the raise in the Senate, but has been clear he would do the same in the future. Alison Grimes, the Democratic candidate, needs to jump on this issue and beat it like a drum until election day. She needs to make it clear to all voters that she would support raising the minimum wage, while McConnell (who has sold out to the corporations) opposes that. This could be the issue that costs McConnell enough votes to keep him from winning re-election.

Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Toss-Up

The chart above shows the results of the latest Magellan Strategies Poll on voter preference for the Kentucky Senate race. The survey was conducted on June 4th and 5th of 808 likely general election voters in Kentucky, and has a margin of error of 3.45 points.

The poll shows Grimes with a three point lead (49% to 46%), but that is within the poll's margin of error. That means the race is still very close, and could be won by either candidate -- which is just how the race has stood for months now. Even though McConnell is the current Minority Leader in the U.S. Senate, he has been unable to shake his Democratic opponent.

This is one race that could go down to the wire in November -- and unless something significant happens before then, it could actually be won by the Democrats (which would kill any chance the GOP had of taking over the Senate).

Numbers For New Hampshire & Kentucky Senate Races

Two new polls have been released that show it's going to be very tough for the Republicans to win a majority of seats in the U.S. Senate. The first is the Vox Populi Polling survey taken in New Hampshire. It was taken on May 14th and 15th of 707 active voters, and has a margin of error of 3.6 points (5.2 points for the Republican primary voters).

Scott Brown was encouraged to move from Massachusetts (where he lost the last election) to New Hampshire, and run for the senate seat currently held by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. It was believed that he had a higher profile, and would have a good chance to unseat Shaheen. As you can see, Brown looks like he will probably win the GOP primary in New Hampshire pretty easily. But when matched against Sen. Shaheen, he is currently 12 points down. That's a lot of ground to make up before November.

Then we have the race in Kentucky:

The newest results in Kentucky come from the Bluegrass Poll -- taken between May 14th and 16th of 2,000 Kentucky adults, with a margin of error of about 2.1 points (4 points when only Republicans are considered). Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has an opponent in the Republican primary -- teabagger Matt Bevins.

It looks like McConnell will easily beat his GOP opponent, but when it comes to the general election, he will have a much tougher time defeating Democrat Alison Grimes. Polls have shown the two in a dead heat for several months now. The last two polls I saw had McConnell ahead by a single point, while this poll has Grimes ahead by one point. But one point is well within the margin of error for all of those polls, and that means this race remains a tie.

This is extraordinary. It is almost unheard of for a party leader in Congress (of either party) to not be re-elected, but that could happen to McConnell (who remains very unpopular with a large segment of Kentucky voters). About 56% of the state's registered voters don't like the job McConnell has done in the Senate, while only 34% say he's done a good job. And his personal favorability numbers aren't much better (49% unfavorable to 29% favorable). There's a real chance McConnell could be unseated in November.

Democrats Are Doing Well In Southern Senate Races

A few months ago the Republicans were ecstatic over their supposed chance to take over the Senate. But that chance depended on doing well in the states that are normally reliably Republican. They expected to pick up a seat in Arkansas, and hold seats in both Kentucky and Georgia -- and I would agree that if they were to have a chance to win the Senate, they would need to win all of those three states (in addition to a few others). Failure to win all three of these states would probably end any hope of being in the majority in the U.S. Senate.

And things aren't working out as they expected. There's still a long way to go before November, but a new NBC News / Marist Poll shows none of these states is going to be easy for the GOP. That poll shows the GOP hopeful in Arkansas trailing incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor by about 11 points. And the GOP's Senate Minority Leader (Mitch McConnell) can't seem to shake his Democratic candidate (Alison Grimes) in Kentucky. That race has been a virtual deadlock for months now.

Just as shocking is how well Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate in Georgia is doing. The Republicans haven't chosen their candidate there yet, but the poll shows Nunn holding her own (and with a real chance to win) against all of the GOP hopefuls.

I think the GOP was hoping to have a repeat of the 2010 election, and thought that could put them firmly in control of Congress -- but that just ain't gonna happen. They're going to have to fight for every senate seat, even in the South.

The survey in Arkansas was done between April 30th and May 4th of 876 registered Arkansas voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.

The survey in Kentucky was done between April 30th and May 6th of 2,353 registered Kentucky voters, and has a margin of error of 2 points.

The survey in Georgia was done between April 30th and May 5th of 2,196 registered Georgia voters, and has a margin of error of 2.1 points.

Kentucky Poll Shows McConnell Is In Trouble This Year

The other day I wrote a post about how a new Rasmussen Poll showed the Kentucky senate race is virtually a dead heat between incumbent Senator (and Senate Minority Leader) Mitch McConnell and his Democratic opponent Alison Grimes. This verified what polls have been showing for months. But a new poll from inside the state shows McConnell may actually be trailing Grimes (even though he has been spending big money to discredit her candidacy).

It is the Lexington Herald-Leader / WKYT Bluegrass Poll that interviewed 1,082 registered voters in Kentucky. The poll had a margin of error of 3 points. The results of the survey are illustrated in the charts above, which show Grimes with a 4 point lead over McConnell (46% to 42%). The second chart shows where McConnell's biggest problems are -- with women, moderates, young voters, and seniors (a real bad sign since seniors generally support GOP candidates).

This is almost unheard of, since party leaders like McConnell seldom have any problem getting re-elected. And while he may still survive this challenge, this poll (just like the many others) shows that McConnell has a fight on his hands. McConnell is just not very popular with Kentucky voters right now, and he is viewed unfavorably by at least half of the voters.

Kentucky Senate Race Is Still Dead Even

Mitch McConnell, the GOP's minority leader in the Senate, has a primary opponent from the fringe right-wing this year. But that's not his biggest problem. He's expected to easily win the GOP primary in Kentucky, and polls show him far ahead of his teabagger opponent. But it's a different story when it comes to the general election.

Several polls have shown he is running pretty even with his Democratic opponent, Alison Grimes. And McConnell has already spent millions on negative advertising in an attempt to separate himself from Grimes. It hasn't done any good at all. A new Rasmussen Poll shows the race is still deadlocked at 42% for McConnell and 42% for Grimes. About 10% haven't made up their mind who to vote for, and another 6% would prefer another candidate.

What this means is that McConnell's actions in the Senate in the next few months could be the factor that decides the race. If he can't keep the fringe right of his own party from causing the government to default over the approaching debt ceiling fight, it could drive his numbers done further -- and that's just one of the issues he'll face this Spring and Summer.

This has turned out to be a much more interesting race than predicted by the pundits, and it will be an interesting one to watch as the year progresses.

The chart above was made from a new Rasmussen Poll. It was conducted on January 29th and 30th of 500 likely Kentucky voters, and has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Toss-Up

Almost anyone discussing the 2014 Senate race last year would have predicted a pretty easy victory for Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. After all, it is unheard of for the leader of a political party in either house of Congress to be defeated for re-election. But the American voters are unhappy right now, and they are just as unhappy with Congress in a red state like Kentucky as they are anywhere else -- and that has put McConnell's senate seat in jeopardy.

The charts above were made from information in a survey done by Stone Research Services between October 21st and 27th of 600 randomly chosen Kentucky adults, with a margin of error of 4 points. The survey was commissioned by the SMART Transportation Division of the Kentucky State Legislative Board.

This poll has McConnell with a 1 point lead over Democrat Allison Grimes. Two previous polls have had Grimes with a 2 point lead. But all of those "leads" are insignificant, since they fall well within the margin of error. That means the race is still, just as it has been for a couple of months, a dead heat and either candidate could win.

The middle and bottom charts above show why this race is so close. McConnell is upside-down in his favorable rating (35% favorable and 55% unfavorable). And almost no one likes the leadership (or lack thereof) that McConnell displayed during the government shutdown and debt ceiling negotiations. Only 11% thought he displayed good leadership, while 47% said it was poor and 33% labeled it an absolute failure.

Political Dream Team

This is my idea of a political "Dream Team" -- four tough, smart, caring, Democratic women, who will put the needs of the people above the greed of corporations. We need to give Elizabeth Warren some help by sending Alison Grimes to the Senate, elect Wendy Davis to the governor's office in Texas, and put Hillary Clinton in the White House.