Favorable And Unfavorable Ratings Of Leading Candidates

These charts reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 17th and 20th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,111 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.6 points, and for registered voters is 3 points.

The survey did not ask who the respondents would support or who they would vote for. They just asked about likability -- whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates.

Donald Trump had the highest unfavorable ratings -- 52% among adults and 54% among registered voters. He also had the highest favorable rating among adults.

Elizabeth Warren had the highest favorable rating among registered voters at 45%, and she was the only candidate that did not score higher on unfavorability than favorability. She was even on both with adults (39%), and had a 3 point edge among registered voters (45% to 42%).

Booker Makes It Official With A Fiery Speech From Newark

I must admit that I didn't realize that Senator Cory Booker had not officially declared his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination. After all, he has been campaigning hard for several weeks now.

But it is now official. In a very good speech from his hometown of Newark (New Jersey), he officially declared his candidacy on Saturday. Here's what he had to say:

First of all: Thank you -- for your support as we seek justice, not just for some, but for all.

Today we are impatient for that justice.

And our sense of urgency, our impatience, comes from the most demanding of values -- it comes from love. Love of our families. Love of our communities. Love of country. Love for each other.

And to many people across the country who don’t speak English, I want to say:

Yo voy a ser un presidente para toda nuestra gente.

56 years ago, a young preacher was arrested on Good Friday while demonstrating against segregation, and on this very day, Saturday, April 13, 1963, he was waking up in a jail cell in Birmingham.

The same jail cell where he wrote on the margins of a newspaper that had been smuggled in to him these words:

“For years now I have heard the word “Wait!”

This “Wait” has almost always meant “Never.”

We must come to see...that ‘justice too long delayed is justice denied.’”

He spoke to the possibility of what we can achieve when we realize our own power and refuse to wait. That young preacher was Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Generations of Americans have shown us what was possible when they refused to wait.

Now it’s our turn.

America, we know our history -- it is a perpetual testimony to impatient, demanding, unrelenting people who in every generation brought a bolder, more real, more American justice. But we still have work to do.

America -- we can’t wait.

America -- we will not wait.

Join me, and together, we will fulfill our pledge to be a nation of opportunity for all. A nation of liberty and justice for all.

I am so thankful for your support -- your dedication has kept this grassroots team motivated and inspired.

We can’t wait when powerful forces are turning prejudice into policy and rolling back the rights that generations of Americans fought for and heroes died for.

We can’t wait when this administration is throwing children fleeing violence into cages, banning Muslims from entering the nation founded on religious liberty, and preventing brave transgender Americans from serving the country they love.

We can’t wait because we have a criminal justice system so deeply baked with bias that it ruthlessly discriminates against Black people, Brown people, low-income people, and people with mental illness and addiction.

We can’t wait when we have an economy where people who work two or three jobs -- even pick up extra shifts -- still can’t pay their bills.

We won’t wait for criminal justice reform. We will end the system of mass incarceration in America.

We won’t wait to legalize marijuana at the federal level. We will pass universal background checks, ban assault weapons, and close the loopholes that allow people who should never have a gun to get one. We will bring a fight to the NRA like they’ve never seen before. And we will win.

We won’t wait to meet the crisis of climate change. We won’t wait for real, inclusive economic justice.

We will protect workers’ rights to organize and empower unions.

We will build an opportunity economy where there are good-paying jobs and fair wages in every neighborhood and where the dignity of work is respected. We won’t wait to deliver a great education to every child. We won’t wait to fix our broken health care system.

We won’t wait to fix our broken immigration system, because immigration is a source of strength.

We won’t wait to stop the dangerous assault on women’s rights. We will demand reproductive justice, because women must have the freedom to make decisions about their own bodies and economic futures. And as President, I will appoint Supreme Court justices who will defend Roe v. Wade.

We won’t wait any longer for equal justice under the law. Because “Justice for all” has to mean justice for everyone.

Together, we will run at the tough challenges.

Together, we will again do the things that people tell us are impossible.

Together, we will win.

And together, we will rise.

Let’s start today.

If The 2020 Election Was Today, Trump Would Likely Lose

These charts reflect the results of a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between June 8th and 10th of a national sample of 679 registered voters, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

The poll asked respondents who they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election was today. Trump came up short against all six of the proposed opponents he could face. He finished 14 points behind Democrat Joe Biden, 8 points behind Democrat Cory Booker, 8 points behind Democrat Elizabeth Warren, 6 points behind Democrat Kristen Gillibrand, 5 points behind Democrat Kamala Harris, and 9 points behind Independent Bernie Sanders.

Leading Candidates For The 2020 Democratic Nomination

This chart reflects the results contained in a recent CNN / SSRS Poll. The poll was done between March 22nd and 25th of a random national sample of 1,014 respondents. This chart only shows the responses of Democrats and Independents, and the margin of error for those groups in 8.5 points.

The respondents were asked whether they could see themselves possibly supporting each of six possible candidates -- Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand.

Joe Biden continues to be the leading candidate, followed closely by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand have a lot of work to do if they are going to be serious contenders. But it's still early. There's a couple of years to go before voters have to choose their favorite, and things could easily change.

One thing I found interesting is the choice of Independents. Sanders supporters claim that he could do something other candidates could not do -- bring Independents around to supporting Democrats. But this poll shows that Biden actually does as well (maybe slightly better) than Sanders among Independents.

I would like to see a poll that pitted Biden and Sanders head-to-head. I think Biden would easily eclipse him.

Biden Still Would Do Better Than Others Against Trump

Who has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in 2020? Public Policy Polling asked respondents who they would vote for in match-ups between Trump and Democrats Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Joe Kennedy, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Kirsten Gillibrand -- or Independent Bernie Sanders.

The poll respondents chose Joe Biden as the best candidate to oppose Trump (at least for now). Biden would beat Trump by 9 points, while Sanders and Booker would beat him by 4 points. Warren, Harris, and Gillibrand were tied with Trump.

I know some progressives don't want Biden as the candidate, but right now he is the obvious choice. Of course a lot could change in the next couple of years.

The poll was done between February 9th and 11th of a random national sample of 687 registered voters, with a 3.7 point margin of error.

Biden Is Favorite For 2020 (For Dems & General Public)

These charts were made from results of the newest Public Policy Polling survey -- done on March 27th and 28th of a random national sample of 677 registered voters, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

It shows that any of five different Democrats would beat Donald Trump if the election was held right now. The favorite though is Joe Biden -- who has a 14 point margin over Trump. The others are Bernie Sanders (11 point margin), Elizabeth Warren (5 point margin), Al Franken (5 point margin), and Cory Booker (3 point margin).

So, who is the favorite among Democrats? That would also be Joe Biden (see chart below). He has the highest favorable rating -- and the lowest unfavorable and unsure ratings. He has to be considered the favorite right now.

NOTE -- I wish they had included Caroline Kennedy in this survey. I think she would have scored right up there with Biden.

Clinton Should NOT Pick Warren, Brown, Or Booker For Veep

The three senators pictured above have been repeatedly mentioned as possible vice-presidential picks for Hillary Clinton. They are Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Cory Booker of New Jersey. They are all good Democrats, good liberals, and would make a great candidate for vice-president. But none of the three should be chosen by Clinton.

Why would I say that, especially when I have a high regard for all three of them (and Brown could help to bring along the swing state of Ohio)? Because all three are senators from a state with a Republican governor.

That means if they were elected vice-president, a Republican governor would appoint their replacement -- and you can be sure it would not be a Democrat chosen to replace them. In fact, it's possible that after replacing them with a Republican, the governor could then drag his feet in scheduling a special election (if he had to call one at all) -- and the sitting GOP senator would have the incumbent advantage once an election was called.

It is extremely important that the Democrats regain control of the Senate in the 2016 election. And there is a pretty good chance that can be done. But it will not be by much if it happens, and Democrats just cannot afford to give a seat back to the Republicans -- especially not one occupied by a solid liberal. Democrats are going to need every senate vote they can get to keep the Republicans from blocking every thing Clinton tries to do for this country.

Booker Has Nice Lead In New Jersey Senate Race

Democrat Cory Booker won the special election last year to serve in the Senate pretty easily. But that senate seat is up for it's regular election this year, so Booker has to run again. It doesn't look like he's going to have much of a problem holding that seat though. A recent poll has him with a 13 point lead over his Republican opponent, Jeff Bell -- and Booker is already polling very close to 50%.

This chart was made from a new Rasmussen Poll -- taken on June 17th and 18th of 750 likely New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.

The U.S. Senate Gets Another Democrat

(The photo of new senator Cory Booker on the left is by David Shankbone.)

New Jersey held its special election yesterday to fill the senate seat currently held by a Republican appointed by Governor Christie after the death of Senator Frank Lautenberg (who passed away last June). And as expected, that seat is now back in Democratic hands.

Mayor Cory Booker soundly defeated Republican Steven Lonegan in the special election. Here are the results as of 10:45pm EST, with 98% of the vote in:

Cory Booker (D)...............706,808 (55%)
Steven Lonegan (R)...............574,164 (44%)

Booker will complete the current term, and will have to run for re-election in 2014.

Booker & Christie Have Huge Leads In N.J.

If the new Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll is correct (and I think it probably is), then both the senate and governor's races in New Jersey are not very competitive races. The poll was taken between August 21st and 27th of 700 registered voters -- and has a 3.7 point margin of error.

The election to determine the state's new senator will be held on October 16th. Currently, Democrat Cory Booker has a huge 28 point lead over his opponent, Republican Steve Lonegan. The right-wing Koch brothers are pouring a ton of money into this race, but it doesn't seem to be doing Lonegan any good at all.

And the November 5th governor's race is just about as lop-sided, with current Republican Governor Chris Christie holding a 26 point lead over his opponent, Democrat Barbara Buono. Christie seems to be well-liked in New Jersey, and has held a big lead since announcing he would seek re-election.

It looks like the New Jersey voters are ignoring party this year. They have two candidates they really like, one from each party, and that's who they are going to elect. The poll also asked the members of each party about their 2016 presidential preferences, and those results are shown in the charts below.

Cory Booker Is A Step Closer To U.S. Senate

On Tuesday, the state of New Jersey moved a bit closer to replacing Republican Jeffrey Chiesa in the United States Senate. Chiesa was appointed by Governor Chris Christie to hold the seat of the late Frank Lautenberg until a special election could be held. That special election will be on October 16, but last night the Democratic and Republican primaries were held and each party's candidate was chosen.

Cory Booker was chosen by New Jersey Democrats over three opponents, while Steve Lonegan was picked by New Jersey Republicans. Here are the vote totals (with 99% of the vote counted):

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Cory Booker...............210,740 (59.1%)
Frank Pallone...............70,205 (19.7%)
Rush Holt...............60,533 (17.0%)
Sheila Oliver...............15,114 (4.2%)
Total Votes...............356,592
19.8% of registered Democrats voted

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Steve Lonegan...............103,338 (79.0%)
Alieta Eck...............27,445 (21.0%)
Total Votes...............130,783
11.9% of registered Republicans voted

People Can Change

Newark Mayor Cory Booker is indicative of what has been happening in this country over the last decade or so. People all over this country are moving away from homophobic views and toward a common sense belief in equal rights for everyone. That's why a clear majority of Americans now support marriage rights for same-sex couples, when 10 years ago the clear majority opposed same-sex marriage. My point is that people can and do change. We live in a freer and more equal nation than ever before. But the fight is not over. We must continue to fight for the guarantees of the Constitution to be extended to all American citizens. But we can take hope in the fact that people can change.