Why I Think Clinton Will Lose

Today is the big primary day here in Texas. It has been said by many, including her husband Bill, that today is the day that could end Clinton's chance of getting the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. She must win Texas and Ohio by big margins to even up the delegate race.

I think she could still eke out a win Ohio, though probably not with the large margin she needs. But here in Texas, I believe she will lose to Obama both in the popular vote and the apportioning of delegates. Although I believe she will go on to Pennsylvania, the campaign will effectively be over and the movement of the superdelegates to Obama will accelerate.

This is still a bit surprising to me. A year ago, Clinton had a huge lead over all the candidates. At that time, Clinton was expected to easily win the nomination. What happened? How did she lose an election most people thought she had "in the bag"?

I've been thinking about this for a few days, and I think there are four major reasons for Clinton losing the Democratic nomination.

1. The move to the center. Over a year ago, I think she began to believe people who thought she had the nomination virtually wrapped up. She began to think about how to win the general election and started to move toward the center of the political spectrum. That was how her husband had won, and she thought she could replay his winning strategy.

But 2008 is different that 1992. Back then, most of America liked the idea of a centrist candidate, and it would have been impossible for a leftist to win. But that was before the disastrous presidency of George Bush. Bush and his cohorts in the Republican Party combined to give conservatism a black eye, and the country began to move back toward the left.

Evidently, Clinton did not see this shift, but the progressives in the Democratic Party certainly did. They became very critical of Clinton's move to the center, and many of them begged Clinton to rediscover her progressive roots. But the die had been cast -- she became the corporate Democratic candidate, accepting their money and coming out in favor of NAFTA and the outsourcing of jobs.

Many progressives became angry and disappointed with Clinton. They began to search for alternatives, and 2008 offered them several acceptable alternatives -- Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, Richardson and Gravel. As the candidates began to withdraw, none of their support went to Clinton. In the end, the huge majority of it wound up with Obama.

2. She didn't understand what the campaign was about. She and her campaign staff decided to base her campaign on "experience". But the country wasn't looking for experience. If they had been, there were candidates with far more experience than Clinton -- Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Gravel. But after Bush, the country was looking for something else. The country wanted change -- a radical change.

Obama understood this from the start. By the time Clinton and the others figured it out, Obama had already positioned himself as the candidate of change. Everyone else was left to play catch-up.

3. The charisma of Obama. Who could have predicted that Obama would become this "perfect storm" of a candidate. We had an inkling of this watching him speak at the Democratic convention a few years earlier. Few could have imagined how his campaign would catch fire, but catch fire it did. It started in Iowa and seemed to grow with each of the primaries and caucuses.

As the other candidates dropped out of the race, their supporters just seemed to naturally move into the Obama campaign. Soon, he was even getting supporters out of demographics that most thought were the exclusive property of Clinton.

4. Misogyny. Some of the feminist blogs supporting Clinton seem to believe this is the number one reason for the failure of her candidacy. I tend to think the other three reasons were more important. There are too many women elected to high public office to believe this is the number one reason for her failure. But it would be foolish to dismiss this completely. There are a lot of men out there who simply won't vote for a female candidate.

We can argue over which of these reasons was most important. However, the fact is that these four reasons have combined to defeat the Clinton candidacy.