Myth Of al-Queda In Iraq

George Bush and his clone, John McCain, are still trying to convince Americans that the biggest threat in Iraq is al-Queda. They'd like for us to believe that if we leave Iraq, al-Queda would either take over there or at least be able to use Iraq as a base for their nefarious activities. The truth is there is absolutely no chance of either happening.

Let's look at just who the groups are that are vying for power in Iraq. First we have the Kurds, who inhabitat the northern part of the country. They are not interested in any part of Iraq except their northern homeland, and they are probably strong enough to control that whether we stay or leave Iraq. They don't like al-Queda, and al-Queda is unable to operate in that area of Iraq.

That leaves four groups vying for control of the rest of Iraq -- the Shiites, the Sunnis, the puppet government we installed and al-Queda. The strongest group is the Shiite militias, the largest of which is controlled by Sadr. This is the group most likely to take over in Iraq when we leave. If they do, they will install an Iranian-style theocracy.

The Shiites hate al-Queda (who are Sunni) and there is no way they would allow them to operate in Iraq. If the Shiites take over, al-Queda will be exterminated or run out of the country in short order.

The Sunnis are the second most powerful group in Iraq. The Sunni militias, called the "Awakening Movement", do not like al-Queda either. They consider them foreigners and trouble-makers. If the Sunnis came to power, they would not treat al-Queda any better than the Shiites. In fact, they are already fighting al-Queda with arms supplied by us. They certainly wouldn't provide a haven for them.

The third group is the puppet government installed by the Bush administration. There is no way they will survive once we leave. Their troops are not capable of fighting any of the other groups without our help. I expect these troops will desert and join either the Shiite or Sunni militias after the U.S. troops withdraw, and the government will quickly fall.

That leaves al-Queda, who is actually the weakest of the four groups. They do not have the numbers to engage in real military actions anymore. The only way they can fight is through terrorist actions -- suicide bombers and roadside bombs. The only reason they still exist in Iraq is because we are still occupying the country.

Once we leave, they will be unable to recruit new members there. Our presence is the only reason they can recruit anyone there at all. They will be left with a few foreign fighters, who will quickly be killed or kicked out by the Sunnis and Shiites who hate them.

Would there be a bloodbath if we leave? It's possible, but it would not be al-Queda doing it. The Sunnis and the Shiites will vy for power, and it might be a bloody civil war. But it might not. A majority of the Arab world believes these groups could come to an understanding, if we would just get out of the way.

So, staying in Iraq is not the way to get rid of al-Queda there. It's only our presence that allows them to even exist there. If we were really serious about fighting al-Queda, we would leave Iraq and go where they really have some power -- Afghanistan and Pakistan. All our occupation of Iraq is doing is allowing the real al-Queda forces to grow stronger in these two countries.

I am in favor of fighting al-Queda, and I have been since they attacked us on 9/11. The group should be crushed and it's leaders brought to justice. But staying in Iraq will never accomplish that.