For Democrats It's Obama Or Defeat

On Saturday, Barack Obama took another step closer to the Democratic nomination when he won a very close vote in the Guam caucuses. Obama received 2,264 votes and Clinton received 2,257 votes -- a slim 7 vote victory for Obama. That means the two candidates will split the 4 delegate votes from Guam (actually 8 delegates who each have 1/2 a vote).

If this had happened in January, we'd have to call it a draw. But this is May, and we're starting to run out of states and territories that haven't voted. With roughly a 140 delegate lead, that makes this a victory for Obama.

Obama doesn't really have to win any more states or territories. All he has to do is keep it close enough in each one to split the delegates. If he does that, he will finish with the lead in delegates, and should have the nomination.

If he finishes with a 100-150 delegate lead or more, it would be a serious mistake for the superdelegates to steal the nomination from him, and give it to Clinton. It would cause a split in the party -- perhaps for years to come. It is also the only way McCain can win.

I know there are many who say that no matter who wins, Democrats will pull together to defeat McCain. I don't believe it. Obama has brought many new young voters into the party, but why should they stay there if party officials can override their vote? Isn't that the same old insider politics they voted to change?

Even more important is the black vote. No group has voted more consistently Democratic than African-Americans, and I doubt if any Democratic nominee can win without their support. They have finally got an excellent candidate who won the majority of delegates fair and square.

For party officials to take the nomination from Obama and give it to a white woman would be a slap in the face to all African-American voters. It would be telling them that while they're good enough to vote for Democrats, they're not good enough to lead the party. How could Democrats expect them to vote for Clinton after that kind of insult?

Finally, there are a couple of million Naderites who are voting Democrat this year, and the huge majority of them are supporting Obama. Why would anyone expect them to abandon their consciences and vote for the corporate candidate? They are conscience voters -- not "lesser of two evil" voters. And they have shown in the past they are not afraid to leave a certain race blank or vote third party. They won't vote McCain, but that doesn't mean they have to vote for Clinton.

The past few elections have shown that the Democrats need all three of these groups to win. If they leave the presidential slot on the ballot blank or vote third party, then McCain will win. If they stay home, then lots of down-ballot Democrats will lose.

Even worse, they may not feel comfortable in the Democratic Party for many years to come.