Well, two more states have had their primaries. In Kentucky, Clinton scored a big victory. In Oregon, the huge victory belonged to Obama. But neither of these victories is the story of the night.
The story of the night is that Obama has now assured himself of finishing with a majority of the pledged delegates. Even if Michigan and Florida are allowed delegates when Democrats meet on May 31st, they will only be approved for half-delegations. That means even if they are counted, Clinton cannot catch Obama in pledged delegates.
Some of the Clinton surrogates are saying the outstanding superdelegates have not picked a candidate because they still haven't made up their mind. They believe these delegates could still be convinced to vote for Clinton. I don't believe that is true at all.
The reason they haven't declared their support for a candidate is out of respect for the Clintons. They want to give her the opportunity to finish the primaries and exit gracefully. There is no way they will go against the will of the pledged delegates. After June 3rd, they will break hard and fast for Obama.
We are also hearing a lot of talk from the Clinton campaign about how Obama can't win among uneducated working-class whites. That's a load of crap! Yes, there are a group of these voters in Appalachia and the Deep South that will vote for McCain. They did it in 2000 and 2004, and they will do it again no matter who the Democratic candidate is.
Anyone who thinks Clinton can get these people to vote Democratic in the Fall is just living in a dream world. They didn't vote for Clinton last night as much as they voted against a black candidate. There are a few states that will vote Republican no matter who the Democrats run.
But in the vast majority of states, Obama is having no trouble at all in getting white votes from all classes. Over 87% of Obama voters in Oregon were white. And he certainly didn't depend on minority voters for his win in Iowa. Just look at the crowds Obama is drawing -- the huge majority of which are white.
Obama may not carry Appalachia and some Southern states this Fall. There is still too much racism in this country. But I think he'll carry enough of the other states to make him our next president, and he'll do it with millions of white votes.
You have it backwards- the huge victory was Hillary's in Kentucky (65-30), the big victory was Obama in Oregon (58-42). 35 points is quite a bit bigger than 16. Either way, let Obama keep thinking he can carry on without the support of Hillary's voters, or just assume they will vote for him if he is the candidate in November. And please don't let him ask Hillary to be his VP- talk about pandering to the voters! 41% of Hillary's voters in Kentucky said they wouldn't vote for Obama in November, something tells me that number is not that far off from being nationwide.
ReplyDeleteI hope the Hillary voters don't expect support in 2012 if they don't remain loyal Democrats now.
ReplyDeletejobsanger - good post. I was wondering when the definition of White, working class began to only apply to a subset of southern White voters who are just as likely to vote Republican in the general election.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that millions of working class Whites have voted for Barack Obama already, and more likely will in the general election. Some folks aren't going to regardless, but hey, what can you do?
Hillary doesn't have a chance in 2012, even moreso if she rips the party apart now.
I'm a working-class white guy, and it really irritates me to be tossed into the same catagorey as some backward-thinking, knuckle-dragging, Republican-voting, right-wing "Bubbas" from Appalachia and the Deep South.
ReplyDeleteI can already sense the Obama workers finding ways to pin the loss in November on Hillary. What a no-pressure campaign- if you lose it's not the candidates fault! If the democrats lose in November the loss will fall squarely on the candidates shoulders.
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