It seems to be a foregone conclusion these days that Barack Obama has no chance to win the state of Texas in the November election. The current polls say McCain will win Texas. The media says Obama will lose Texas. Political pundits, conservative bloggers, and yes, even many of my fellow liberal and progressive bloggers agree with this assessment.
Maybe all these people are right. Maybe Texas is hopeless for the Democrats this year. Maybe I live in a dream world, but I'm not ready to give up yet. I actually think Democrats have a chance to win Texas this year.
Consider the following three things. First is the old political adage that you cannot expect people to vote for you unless you ask them to do it. Too many times in the past, Texas Democrats have just conceded the election -- especially in the redder areas of the state. Frankly, if you don't think you can win, then you won't win. The negative belief becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. We need to dump the negative beliefs, and get out and work for every single vote -- even in the reddest areas.
Second, while predicting defeat for Obama, many Texas Democrats are seeing a chance for victory in many other races currently held by Republicans. And these are not outrageous expectations. Some prime examples are the State House race in District 129, the State Senate race in District 10 and the race for the U.S. Senate seat here in Texas. Many believe that Sherrie Matula, Wendy Davis and Rick Noriega have a real shot at winning these races. If they can win, then why is it so outrageous to believe that Obama can't also win?
Third, look at the turnout in the Texas primary. Texas Democrats didn't just have more primary voters than Republicans, they had almost twice as many. If Democrats can just get 70% of these people back to the polls in November, they can win. And even though it was obvious in the primary that McCain would be the Republican nominee, he still lost a significant portion of the vote in Texas. Do those people dislike him enough to vote Libertarian or stay home in November?
I could be wrong, but personally, I think it's way too early for Texas Democrats to even consider the notion that Obama can't win Texas. I think he can -- WE CAN!