Most of the pundits have written off Texas as a Republican state. They gave Barack Obama and senatorial candidate Rick Noriega almost no chance to win the state. But they may just have spoken too soon. In Texas, the larger the voter turnout the better the Democrats do in the election.
If the turnout in early voting is any indicator, and it usually is, then the Democrats may still have a chance to turn Texas blue this year. The early voting and absentee voting totals are up significantly and are foretelling a huge voter turnout this year.
Listed below are the early voting totals (early voting and absentee combined) for the first four days in the largest 15 counties in Texas. The totals for the first four days in 2004 are listed first and then the totals for 2008. The percentages in parentheses are the percent of the total voters registered in that county.
COUNTY...........................2004.............................2008
Harris............................98,850(4.95%)............208,010(10.72%)
Dallas...........................100,404(8.15%)...........158,463(13.12%)
Tarrant.........................86,524(9.42%)............139,127(14.50%)
Bexar............................74,949(8.25%).............136,910(14.71%)
Travis..........................66,473(11.36%)............107,494(17.65%)
Collin............................38,860(10.52%).............61,407(14.46%)
El Paso........................32,244(8.67%)................39,228(10.09%)
Denton........................30,456(9.47%)................49,199(13.72%)
Hidalgo.......................18,237(6.76%).................30,394(9.96%)
Fort Bend...................20,277(7.97%)................49,038(16.40%)
Montgomery.............19,852(9.27%).................32,875(13.59%)
Williamson.................21,229(10.60%)..............35,589(15.34%)
Nueces........................16,817(8.34%)................21,911(11.01%)
Jefferson....................16,061(9.72%)
Cameron..............................................................14,529(8.34%)
(In the last four years Cameron has passed Jefferson in population.)
TOTAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,655,265(8.06%).............1,112,466(13.15%)
These are the kind of numbers the Democrats needed if they are going to retake the state. If this voter surge continues through election day, and there is no reason to believe it won't, then Texas could give the nation a big surprise on election night.
Texas, Arizona, & Alaska are my three dream wins for Obama if he can win this thing by a healthy margin.
ReplyDeleteI do hope that we are all "misunderestimating" the power of Obama's registration drive and GOTV work.
I've been volunteering for the campaign myself (in Virginia) - it's the first time I've ever done anything like that. I think a lot of other people are in that boat too.
Finally! Data of our early vote numbers. Thank goodness, TxSOS posted.
ReplyDeleteWould you happen to know what percent of registered dems is to total reg ovters in Tx?
Sorry UT, but I don't have that figure.
ReplyDelete