One of the biggest imponderables in this year's presidential election is the "Bradley Effect". Will it affect the election, or is it a thing of the past? There are convincing arguments for both points of view.
In the 1982 California governor's race, Tom Bradley (above left) had a sizeable lead in the polls but lost by a small margin on election day. It was believed that some white voters told pollsters they supported Bradley, but then voted for his white opponent in the privacy of the voting booth. This difference between the polls and the actual result for African-American politicians has since been known as the "Bradley Effect".
The same phenomenon was seen again in the 1989 Virginia governor's race. Douglas Wilder had a significant lead in the polls, but pulled out a victory only by a razor-thin margin. Most pundits agreed it was due to the "Bradley Effect".
But in the last 10 years or so, the "Bradley Effect" has not seemed to play much of a role in our elections. Take the 2006 Tennessee senate race for example. Polls showed a very close race between Harold Ford (above right) and his white opponent. Ford lost a squeaker, but exit polls showed his white support was about the same as shown by pre-election polls. This caused many pundits to claim the "Bradley Effect" was dead.
But this is the first time we had ever had an African-American running for president and leading in the polls. This is not the same as a senatorial or governor's election. We are basically talking about electing the leader of the "free world". Because of that, it would not surprise me to see at least a small amount of the "Bradley Effect" show up on election day. How much is anybody's guess.
Fortunately for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, there are a couple of other unusual aspects in the 2008 presidential election. These have to do with black voters and new young voters.
Black voters normally give at least 80% of their vote to the Democratic candidate. But it is expected this year to be as high as 95% with the Democratic candidate being Barack Obama. In addition, there has been a concerted effort to register many more black voters this year. It is expected that the overall black vote will be significantly higher than ever before.
In the past, young voters have had a disappointingly small turnout. But during the primaries, the youth vote showed a large increase. The Obama campaign has made it a point to try and register many more young voters since the primaries. At this time the youth vote, which is dominated by support for Obama, looks like it may be much larger than in the past.
There are many who believe the larger black vote and youth vote may be underestimated in the current polling. If this is true, and I believe it is, these two undercounts could easily offset the "Bradley Effect", if it does occur.
Of course at this point, this is all just political guesswork. Will there be a "Bradley Effect"? Will black voters and younger voters show up in larger than expected numbers? We won't know until November 4th.
This is shaping up to be a very interesting election. I can hardly wait.
You posted once before about racism being a major factor in this election.
ReplyDeleteAt the time, I was foolishly convinced that we had come to a place where racism was no longer a huge factor.
That was before I started working the phones for the local Obama campaign. I can't tell you how sad I am these days. Will the human race ever grow up? I can't even describe some of the things people say to me.... or the names they call Obama.
And then... 100,000 show up at a Missouri Obama rally and I remember to smile again.
So yeah, the Bradley Effect will play in some areas but hopefully with enough hard work, it won't be the only thing that plays.
Mick
I disagree with Mick because I agree with him.
ReplyDeleteI am absolutely sure he has heard people say horrible things about Obama...and that those people would say the same things to pollsters.
As a child in the 1970s in Kansas, we were told that white people used to think that black people were inferior, but the problem had been solved and we need not worry about it anymore. There was a certain amount of political correction of people's true beliefs going on.
But by now many of those who told us those things have died...and most of the rest have said the right things for so long that they now mostly believe them.
The only people left who are so racist that they would not vote for a black man on that basis alone are people like Celtic Texan who have no qualms about telling and showing you their ugliest views.
They tell the pollsters the truth, sordid as it is.
Racism is not yet dead...but the Bradley effect is.