The 2008 election seems to be falling apart for the McCain campaign, and for the Republican Party. Many normally safe states for Republicans, states that went easily to George Bush in 2000 and 2004, are moving into the Obama column and very possiblt electing down-ballot Democrats as well.
States like Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia are already pretty safely in the Democratic column, and North Carolina and Nevada are starting to look good for Obama. Even some real surprises like Montana and North Dakota are starting to show some polling that puts them into the toss-up catagory.
Now, over at AMERICAblog, we learn that another state that went easily to Bush is polling at a statistal dead heat between McCain and Obama -- Louisiana. A poll that Loyola University did for WAFB News shows McCain at 43% and Obama at 40%, with a huge 17% as undecided. Since the poll has a margin of error at 4.5%, that means the race is a statistal tie.
Adding to Democratic hopes are the excellent numbers for the early voting. Twice as many people voted early this year than in 2004. Of those early voters, 58.5% were Democrats and 28.4% were Republicans. About 36.3% of early voters were African-Americans (a higher percentage than in the past).
With numbers like these, it wouldn't take too many disheartened Republicans to stay at home to give Louisiana to Obama.
I think your prediction is a bit of a stretch.
ReplyDeleteA Southeast Louisiana University poll from October 28th gives McCain a 13 point lead in Louisiana, which according to RealClearPolitics represents a little slippage, but not all that much. McCain is still ahead by double digits, and with the exception of one poll back in late May, always has been.
That having been said, Louisiana is a strange case. On the one hand, they have a popular Republican governor (Bobby Jindal). But on the other hand, they also have a popular Democratic senator (Mary Landrieu) who should handily win her re-election bid. Obama might ride Landrieu's skirt tails on to a victory in Louisiana, but it seems pretty doubtful to me.
I'm sure you'd love to see Obama/Biden take all 50 states and the District of Columbia, but I think that Louisiana is still wishful thinking at this point.
The odds are that you are right, but I think things are a lot closer than your poll would suggest.
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