The man pictured to the left is Rep. Joseph Cao (R-Louisiana). He is the first Vietnamese to be elected to the United States House of Representatives. He is also the least likely of any Republican to be re-elected in 2010.That's because he represents the 2nd Congressional District of Louisiana -- a district that is majority African-American and heavily Democratic. The district can normally be counted upon to elect a Democrat by a 25-30% margin (the district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+28). So how did Cao get elected?
He got elected because he was running against one of the crookedest politicians in America -- William Jefferson. Jefferson had already been arrested by the FBI for taking bribes (thousands of dollars were found hidden in his freezer) and he was awaiting trial. Jefferson was also arrogant and made no excuse or apology for his actions.
Even so, Cao barely eked out a victory. He got 49.55% of the vote to Jefferson's 46.82%. With these kind of numbers and his largely Democratic constituency, one might think Cao would be open to acting in a bipartisan manner in Congress.
He has even talked that way himself. About a month ago, he told the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, "Don't tell the Republicans, but I might be a closet Democrat." He also was believed to be seriously considering voting for both President Obama's stimulus package and his budget. But it looks like all of that was just talk.
Rep. Cao has voted the straight Republican party line -- including votes against the president's stimulus package and budget. That is not going to go down well with the voters in the 2nd district. There has already been an effort to get signatures on a recall petition (13,000 were gathered on the first day). However, there is no provision for recalling a federal elected official.
Cao has metaphorically put a gun to his political career and pulled the trigger. The voters of the 2nd district will remember these votes when they go to the polls next year, and Cao has to be the Republican least likely to be re-elected.
Cao had better make the most of this term in office, because that's all he's going to get.
Because of the ethnic cleansing in the aftermath of the Federal Flood, Cao's district is no longer majority African-American. I'd estimate it's only about 45% African-American now, which makes African-Americans still a plurality in the 2nd Congressional District since the remainder are divided between whites and Asian-Americans, but no longer a majority. Dollar Bill's 46.82% was pretty much all of the African-Americans left in the district, plus a few whites who'd benefitted from Dollar Bill's largesse over the years.
ReplyDeleteWe'll know for sure once the 2010 election is done, but my suspicion is that the next candidate to win the 2nd Congressional District will be a white Democrat.
- Badtux the Demographics Penguin