The followers of conservative blue dog Democrat Bill White are celebrating a minor victory these days. It seems that this right-winger has outperformed all of the other right-wingers running for Texas governor by collecting the most in campaign funds in the first three weeks of 2010. I say it's a minor victory because he just barely beat out Rick Perry, and still lags far behind both Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison in campaign dollars on hand. Here are the numbers:
FIRST 3 WEEKS OF 2010
White...............$755,067
Perry...............$734,366
Hutchison...............$269,941
Medina...............$145,857
CAMPAIGN FUNDS ON HAND
Perry...............$10.4 million
Hutchison...............$10 million
White...............$6.4 million
Medina...............$68,484
White is still $4 million short of his probable opponent in November -- Rick Perry, and outside of the South Texas and Gulf Coast areas, he's not nearly as well known. He's going to need every penny of that $6.4 million (most of which was raised when he was running for the U.S. Senate) just to introduce himself to most voters.
Many Democrats are acting like White has a good chance of being elected this coming November, but I doubt it. He'll probably win the primary because he has no real opposition there, but the November election is another story. This is still a Republican state and the Republicans seem to be happy with Perry's lack of leadership.
Also, conservatives and there baser cousins, the teabaggers, are energized this year. They will show up in large numbers to vote for their secessionist hero, Rick Perry. Progressives are not nearly so energized, because they have a blue dog that'll probably be heading their ticket. Many of them are supporting the conservative Bill White, thinking a conservative will appeal to the Independents. But many others will probably vote third party or stay at home.
After all, we've already had years of corporate conservative leadership in Austin. Why should we think electing a corporate conservative Democrat will be any better than re-electing the corporate conservative Republican. I expect many Independents will think the same.
Maybe someday the Democrats will remember their proud history in Texas and nominate a real progressive as an alternative to the corporate conservatives put up by the Republicans. If they do, they again have a real chance of winning. But that's not happening this year.
I expect the voters in November will choose the corporate conservative they know (Perry) over the corporate conservative they don't know well (White). In 2006, Democrats blamed Kinky Friedman for their loss (even though he got as many Republican votes as Democratic votes). In 2010, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
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