Repubs Unable To Pull Off Second Upset

When Democratic Representative Robert Wexler resigned from his seat in Florida's 19th Congressional District, the Republicans thought they had a chance to pull off an upset. The district is heavily Democratic, but so was the state of Massachusetts and they were able to get Scott Brown elected there in what all the political pundits called a huge upset.

After all, Florida is a much more conservative state than Massachusetts (and has a strong teabagger contingent) and the Republicans figured they could ride the unpopularity of the new health care reform law to an upset victory. The Republican candidate, contractor Ed Lynch, made that a centerpiece of his campaign, along with Obama's stimulus bill and his Iraq timetable. Lynch called the Iraq timetable "moronic" and claimed the health care reform law would gut Medicare (40% of the district's voters are elderly).

In contrast, Democrat Ted Deutch (pictured) made sure voters knew he was no "blue dog". He said he would have voted for the health care reform law. He also made it clear that he supported both Obama's stimulus bill and his timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. So the voters had a clear choice between a Democrat who fully supports the president and a Republican who opposes everything Obama is trying to accomplish.

It wasn't even close. With about 97% of the precincts reporting, it looked like a smashing victory for Democrat Ted Duetch. Duetch had 62% of the vote to only 35% for Republican Ed Lynch. It seems like opposition to the new health care law is not going to be a good enough issue to win in districts where Democrats have a majority in the coming election.

It might make a difference in a few close districts, but with Democrats becoming more energized every day, I expect them to hold their majorities in both houses of Congress this November.