Many Republicans, after listening to the pundits, have already started celebrating what many of them thought was going to be a big election day this coming November. Some are even bragging that they might take back the U.S. House and Senate. But that celebrating may be taking place too soon. While things looked great a month ago, some races are tightening up and giving Democrats renewed hope.
For a while it looked like Republicans might take the senate seats for California, Delaware and Connecticut, but it now looks like those seats have slipped out of their grasp. Even though they have spent a ton of money, teabagger Republicans in California and Connecticut have been unable to catch up with their Democratic opponents. And in Delaware, Republicans passed up an almost sure-winner in Rep. Castle to nominate a teabagger, Christine O'Donnell, who is double digits behind the Democrat.
Now it looks like Kentucky may also be in play for the Democrats -- a real surprise in that red state. A month ago Rand Paul (pictured) looked to be an easy winner. He was leading Democrat Jack Conway by 15 points in the Courier-Journal/WHAS 11 Bluegrass poll (done by Survey USA polling). But this same poll nows shows the race to be virtually dead even. Paul leads by only 49% to 47% -- well within the poll's 4% margin of error.
Conway already had the anti-teabagger vote, but the latest poll shows he is now taking a majority of those who are neutral toward teabaggers. He is also building up a big lead among women (going from a 3% lead to a 16% lead). And Conway is making inroads among voters who make more than $50,000 a year (where Paul's lead has shrunk from 14% to 5%). It looks like many voters are having second thoughts about Paul, who is out on the fringe of the far right-wing.
The party out-of-power usually picks up some seats in an off-year election, and the Republicans will probably still do that. But they had a golden opportunity this year because many Americans are upset with everyone in Washington over the economy and were poised to vote many incumbents out. However, that was before the fringe teabagger nuts took over the Republican Party and began to purge moderates.
The teabaggers have moved the Republican Party so far to the right that many Americans are starting to have second thoughts about voting for them. It looked like Majority Leader Harry Reid was probably a sure loser in Nevada. But then the teabaggers took over the Republican Party in that state and nominated Sharron Angle, who is so far to the right that even many of the state's Republicans cannot support her. It nows looks like Reid has a good chance to be re-elected.
Even Alaska may be in play for Democrats. While the teabaggers were successful in nominating their own candidate, Joe Miller, Sen. Murkowski has decided to run as a write-in candidate and could well pull enough moderate Republican votes to give the Democratic candidate a shot at winning (which was unthinkable a few months ago).
The teabaggers would like to think they are a large mainstream movement in this country, but they aren't. They are just an angry (and largely racist) wing of the Republican Party, and they are far to the right of most Americans. They are so far out of the mainstream of American political thought that they are starting to scare most Americans -- especially those moderate independents who decide most elections in the United States.
The Republican Party had a great opportunity to make big inroads in the coming election, but it is starting to look like the teabaggers have blown much of that opportunity for them.
I wouldn't even begin to predict what's going to happen on November 2nd. There are just too many potential October surprises.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I'll say with a reasonable amount of certainty is that there will be a few cliff hangers, and probably even a few upsets.
Thirty-six days and counting. I've already got my microwave popcorn stashed away in the cupboard. It should be an entertaining (and long) night!
I think we may need a few strong drinks to go with that popcorn, CT.
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