Sunday, October 17, 2010

Bill White's Bravado

You have to hand it to Bill White, the Democratic candidate for governor in Texas.   He's either lost his mind completely, or he's an absolute master of bravado (bluster, boasting, bluff, braggadocio).   White met with the editorial board of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram last Thursday and told them,   "We like where we are.   We've gained momentum.   We have support across party lines."

That makes it sound like his campaign is cutting into the 6 or 7 point lead that His opponent Rick Perry has maintained for several months now.   The problem is that it's just not true.   White's own most recent internal poll puts him at 6 points behind Perry.   White told he Star-Telegram that he thinks that poll surveyed too many Republicans.

First of all, if he's really getting support across party lines then it shouldn't matter if too many Republicans were surveyed.   Second, almost all candidate internal polls err on the side of the candidate that's paying for the poll -- not the other way.   In addition, all of the outside polls show White trailing his opponent by 6 to 10 points.

With only two weeks to go until election day I can't believe Bill White really likes the position he is currently in, especially considering that he hasn't been able to close the gap for several months now.   It's not like the polls have been going up and down like a yo-yo in this race -- they haven't.   There has been almost no movement in the polls since it was known who the two major candidates were.

But I guess a candidate has to talk like that.   It would be like putting up a white flag (no pun intended) to admit your campaign is stuck in neutral with only two weeks to go.

2 comments:

  1. did you see where the dallas morning news picked him over good hair perry for governor?..I fell right out of my recliner..

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  2. The rapid increase of cellular-only Americans has a quantifiable impact on political polling results. Most pollsters, from national pollster Rasmussen to small Texas pollsters, call only people with published number landline telephones. Specifically, excluding cellular-only adults from political surveys has a statistically significant, negative impact on Democratic performance in political polling. This was confirmed in a recent study by Pew, which compared the national generic ballot preference of a landline-only sample of 4,683 registered voters with a combined landline and cellular-only sample of 7,055 registered voters:

    In the landline sample, Republican candidates have a 47%-to-41% margin over Democratic candidates on the 2010 generic horse race, but in the combined sample voters are evenly divided in their candidate preferences for this November (44% for each party). A majority of cell-only voters (52%) say they will support the Democratic candidate in their district.

    ReplyDelete

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