While the support of Whites for Democrats has been up and down according to the polls (and currently seems to be rebounding towards support for Democrats), it is a different story in the minority community. African-Americans still support the Democratic Party is overwhelming numbers and are expected to again vote nearly as a bloc for Democrats in the coming election.
If a new Pew Hispanic Center poll is to believed, Democrats can also expect a huge majority of votes from the Hispanic community. The poll, conducted by Social Science Research Solutions, surveyed 1,375 Hispanics between August 17th and September 19th. All of the respondents were registered voters. The margin of error for the poll is 3.3%.
According to the poll the support for President Obama remains high even though 59% of Hispanics say they are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. At least 63% of Hispanic voters say they approve of President Obama's job performance (as compared to 46% of registered voters in the general population). Here is how they rated the Obama administration policies as compared to the Bush administration policies:
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION (2010)
Helpful to Hispanics...............26%
Harmful to Hispanics...............13%
No effect on Hispanics...............51%
BUSH ADMINISTRATION (2007)
Helpful to Hispanics...............16%
Harmful to Hispanics...............41%
No effect on Hispanics...............33%
Very few Hispanics believe the Republican Party has much concern for them and their needs (even among Hispanics who self-identify as Republicans only 18% believes the Republican Party has more concern for Hispanics than the Democratic Party, while 62% say neither party is concerned). Here is how Hispanics in general view the two parties:
WHICH PARTY HAS MORE CONCERN FOR HISPANICS?
Democrats...............47%
Republicans...............6%
It should come as no surprise after viewing the above numbers that a huge majority of Hispanics favor Democratic candidates in the coming election. Here are those numbers:
WOULD YOU FAVOR THE DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN IN THE UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION?
Democrats...............65%
Republicans...............22%
It looks like it will be another rough year for Republicans trying to get elected in predominately Hispanic districts. Those districts look pretty safe for Democrats. And Hispanics should also give Democratic statewide candidates a nice bump at the polls. There is only one problem with the Hispanic community's vote -- only 51% said they were certain to vote in the upcoming election. It would be beneficial for Democrats to conduct a serious GOTV effort in the Hispanic community.
Here are the percentages among different elements in the Hispanic community who said they would definitely vote in November:
Age 50 to 64...............62%
With at least some college...............61%
English dominant...............58%
Over age 65...............58%
Republican affiliation...............58%
Democratic affiliation...............55%
Native born...............52%
Bilingual...............52%
Non-Mexican...............52%
Mexican origin...............51%
Foreign born...............49%
Age 30 to 49...............48%
Age 18 to 29...............45%
Spanish dominant...............38%
From the same poll:
ReplyDelete"However, Hispanic registered voters appear to be less motivated than other voters to go to the polls. Just one-third (32%) of all Latino registered voters say they have given this year's election 'quite a lot' of thought. In contrast, half (50%) of all registered voters say the same. And when it comes to their intent to vote, half (51%) of Latino registered voters say they are absolutely certain they will vote in this year's midterm election, while seven-in-ten (70%) of all registered voters say the same."
"The survey finds that among Latino registered voters, Republicans may be more likely to turn out and vote than Democrats. Some 44% of Latino Republicans say they have given the election quite a lot of thought compared with 28% of Latino Democrats. This partisan gap is consistent with survey findings of the full population of registered voters." [Emphasis added]
Here's a link to the poll.
Apathy may offset ideology. If Hispanic Democrats stay home on November 2 in sufficient numbers, they won't have a positive effect for the Democratic candidates.
I covered the apathy issue in the post, and your link is redundant since it was provided in the post.
ReplyDeleteBut if you'll notice, the Republican Hispanics are not any more energized that the Democrats. 58% of the Republicans said they would definitely vote while 55% of the Democrats said they would do the same. Since there are nearly three times as many Hispanic Democrats as Republicans, this still looks like a big advantage for Democrats among Hispanics. And the better the GOTV effort, the bigger the advantage.
It serves me right for trying to dash off a comment just before my lunch hour. I'll try to read your posts a little more carefully in the future before commenting on them. My bad.
ReplyDeleteI probably still haven't studied the results of the poll as carefully as you have, but I do see where you're coming from. I was focusing on the statistics regarding which group had given the election quite a lot of thought, rather than which group was definitely going to vote. I would have thought there'd be a closer correlation between the two. Go figure.
There are certainly anomalies in these trends among Hispanic voters - Marco Rubio in the Florida senatorial race and Susana Martinez in the New Mexico race for governor come to mind. That's what's going to make November 2 so interesting, in my opinion. I'll also be interested to see how the GOP African-American candidates will fare.
You're right about the importance of getting out the vote, though. A lukewarm vote counts equally to an enthusiastically cast one.