Republican Enthusiasm Not Apparent In Panhandle

The Texas Panhandle is one of the reddest areas of a red state.   There are no Democratic incumbents in the Panhandle, and once this election is over that will probably still be true (although I'm still hoping for a minor miracle in State House District 87).   Knowing that, I have to admit I was a little surprised at the early voting turnout in Potter and Randall counties -- the most populous counties in the Panhandle (each of which has about half of Amarillo).

The political pundits have been telling us that there is a large "enthusiasm gap" between Republicans and Democrats in this election.   Because of this enthusiasm gap, they have been predicting that Republicans will vote in larger numbers than Democrats -- resulting in a huge Republican victory on election day.   But is that true?

When you look at the early voting figures for the 15 Texas counties with the most population, it looks like it could be.   These counties showed a significant increase over early voting in the 2006 election -- the last off-year election.   In 2006, there were 1,074,824 early voters (about 13.21% of registered voters).   But in 2010 there were 1,724,486 early voters (about 20.68% of registered voters).   That's an increase of 60.44% in those counties.

But it's hard to say whether that rise in voters was due to Republican enthusiasm or not.   After all, these are the counties with the largest urban areas where the Democratic Party has its greatest strength.   The large jump in new early voters could be due to Republican enthusiasm or it could be due to large numbers of Democrats voting early (or both).

It seems to me that it would be more telling to look at an area that is dominated by Republicans to see if they are truly enthusiastic about voting -- an area like the Panhandle.   But the Panhandle (at least Potter and Randall counties) simply doesn't back up the enthused Republican idea.

In 2006 these two Panhandle counties had about 23,600 people vote early.   The 2010 early voting actually showed a drop of about 800 voters -- down to 22,863 early voters.   If the Republicans are so enthusiastic about voting in 2010, why did the early voting totals drop below 2006 numbers in this reddest of areas?

Is the "enthusiasm gap" just a bunch of baloney?   Have the Republicans decided they have won this election and don't need to vote?   Either one of these cases could turn out to be an unexpected boon for Democrats.

I would be interested to know how the early voting has gone in other red West Texas areas like Lubbock or Abilene.   Are the Republicans enthusiastically voting in those areas, or is the early voting turnout as poor as it is in the Panhandle?   Is the "enthusiasm gap" just a myth? It could be.