Gregg (and most other people) doubt that there is a state that Palin could win outright -- not even her home state of Alaska. But she wouldn't have to. That's because the delegates to the national convention will be given to candidates according to the proportion of the vote they received in each state. In other words, a candidate that received 20% of the vote in a state would get 20% of the delegates of that state.
If the field of candidates is very large, and right now it looks like that will be the case, then it is entirely possible that different candidates will do well in different states. This could result in a large number of candidates getting to the convention with delegates, but no one would have enough for the nomination. Meanwhile, it is entirely possible that Palin could finish second or third in most states, and that would give her a substantial number of delegates even though she didn't win any single state.
If Palin arrived at the convention with one of the larger delegate totals (due to all the second or third place finishes), it is a definite possibility that she could get the nomination. That's because the teabaggers, who love her, are the most active party members and will probably be able to control the next Republican convention. Those who arrive at the convention pledged to another candidate could well switch to teabagger queen Palin when they realize their candidate can't win. This would give her the nomination.
Now this path would only be available if no one emerges as a clear front-runner (and so far no one has), but it is a possibility. That has Gregg worried, because he believes that she wouldn't stand a chance running against President Obama. I agree with his assessment -- this would be an absolute gift for Democrats (who currently seem to be too timid to actually go out and fight for those votes).
It probably won't happen, but there's an outside chance that it could. And a fellow can dream, right? At the very least, it's an interesting thought.
Another interesting factor in all of this is something I saw on CNN yesterday:
ReplyDeleteSome states (12, I think?) are considering NOT holding Presidential party primaries in 2012 to save state money.
Presumably (although this would vary a little state to state) this would force parties in those states to select their delegates/candidate through a state convention, where the party would foot the bill instead of the state.
The problem with THAT... party insiders would be doing the picking. People who show up at conventions tend to be MORE liberal (in the case of Dems) or conservative (Republicans) than the public at large - even more so than general primary voters.
As we saw with Clinton and Obama in 2008, just a couple of early states going different ways could change the delegate math. We could end up with someone a LOT more conservative as the nominee for the GOP...
Not sure how that would hurt or benefit Palin...