Arab Dictators Continue To Crumble

It seems that the unexpected and quick fall of the dictator in Tunisia has kicked off a chain-reaction in the Middle East that is still far from over. After the success in Tunisia, the Egyptian people rose up and rid themselves of Mubarak. They now have a new constitution and impending elections.

Yesterday, another dictator agreed to give up power. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled Yemen for the last 32 years, has agreed to resign within 30 days and turn power over to his vice-president, who will then call for quick (and hopefully) free elections. The dictator was left with few options after the demonstrations just kept getting larger in that country (with hundreds of thousands turning out last Friday) and Army officers began to defect and join the demonstrators. Saleh had tried both violence against the protesters and offers of concessions, but neither had worked.

And it doesn't look like the dictator in Syria's decision to violently oppose demonstrators is working very well either. Bashar Assad ordered his troops to fire on tens of thousands of people joining a funereal procession last weekend for dead protesters -- bringing the death toll just for the last two days to over 120 people. He has also ordered his secret police to arrest protest leaders. But none of this seems to be working. In fact, his government may be starting to fall apart -- since two government officials and a religious leader resigned over the weekend saying they were disgusted by the violence. Although it is too early to tell for sure, it looks like the Assad government may fall soon.

And things are not looking too good for Gadhafi in Libya either. Some had said the situation was starting to look like a stalemate, but government forces seem to have withdrawn from Misrata over the weekend and the rebels are now claiming victory there. The rebels also captured a border post a couple of days ago. With the help of some troops from France, Italy and Great Britain sent to teach them some military planning and organization, the rebels could soon seize the initiative again in that country. And with NATO saying they will continue operations until Gadhafi gives up power, I still think he will not be able to hold on much longer.

There have also been demonstrations in Bahrain, but the Saudis have sent troops in there and virtually taken over the country. They are afraid that unrest there could spill over into their own country (ruled by a king with absolute power) and they are willing to be very brutal to prevent that. In his own country, the Saudi king has banned all demonstrations and so far has been successful in preventing any uprising there. It's anyone's guess as to whether he will be successful in the long run. But one thing's for certain -- demonstrators in Saudi Arabia can't count on any American help. There's just too much oil there, and while America talks big about freedom there is little doubt that it will take second place to continuing the flow of Saudi oil.

Is democracy truly coming to the Arab world? It's too early to tell right now. The old dictators could simply be replaced by new ones, or these countries could devolve into theistic dictatorships like in Iran. But there is a real possibility that the new governments could really be representative democracies. After all, stranger things have happened (who would have thought a tiny sparsely populated colony could defeat the most powerful monarchy in the world and establish a democracy in the latter 18th century?).

For now, all we can do is wait and see -- and hope for the best.