Birtherism And The Polls

Well, Obama did it. He released the "long-form" copy of his original birth certificate. He didn't necessarily need to do this, because the copy he had already released is considered the official birth certificate by the state of Hawaii (where he was born). I think he just did it to further marginalize the birthers. This takes away their only argument, and if they continue their silly claims now they will simply be fully exposed for what they really are -- racists who can't accept that an African-American was elected fairly and squarely to be president.

Of course, it does bring up the question of just how many of these die-hard racists there really are. Survey USA decided to find out. After the president's birth certificate (pictured above) was released, they conducted a survey of 1,500 American adults (with both cell phones and land-lines). It turns out that 71% of the population has no doubt that the president was born in Hawaii, while 10% believe the birth certificate is a forgery (17% of teabaggers & 18% of Republicans) and 18% still have doubts (40% of teabaggers and 33% of Republicans). Here are the numbers:

* 63% say Obama was definitely born in the United States.

* 19% say Obama was probably born in the United States. 
* 11% say Obama was probably born in another country. 
* 6% say Obama was definitely born in another country.

* 57% say they knew all along that the President was born in the USA.
* 14% say they had doubts, but now are satisfied that the President was born in the USA.
* 18% say they still have doubts about where the President was born (including 40% of Tea Party, 33% of Republicans, 27% of Conservatives.)
* 10% say they are sure the document released 04/27/11 is a forgery (including 17% of Tea Party , 18% of Republicans, 16% of Conservatives).

* Both 27% who have seen the certificate and 27% who have not seen the certificate say the matter is still an open item for debate. 
* 64% of those who have seen the certificate say the matter is now a closed incident. 
* 49% of those who have not seen the certificate say the matter is now a closed incident.

* When all Americans are asked whether Obama will be re-elected in 2012, 33% say he will be re-elected, 49% say he won't be. 
* When just responses from those who have seen the certificate are considered, 41% say he will be re-elected, 44% say he won't be.

* 26% of Americans say they will vote for Obama in 2012 no matter who else is on the ballot.
* 34% of Americans say they will vote against Obama in 2012 no matter who else is on the ballot.
* 35% say they need to know who else is on the ballot.

* 9% of Americans consider themselves to be part of the "Birther" movement.
* 34% of Americans are not following news stories about the birth certificate.

As I expected, the birthers (about 28% of the population -- 57% of teabaggers and 51% of Republicans) are not about to give up this silly fight. Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen Report survey reinforces the view that the birther issue is still strong among Republicans. This new survey (conducted on April 26th of 1,000 GOP primary voters) shows that the king of the birthers, Donald Trump, is still in first place among possible Republican presidential candidates. Here are the results of that poll:

Donald Trump...............19%
Mitt Romney...............17%
Mike Huckabee...............15%
Sarah Palin...............9%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Ron Paul...............8%
Tim Pawlenty...............5%
Mitch Daniels...............3%
Some other candidate...............5%
Undecided...............11%

This is quite different from this same survey when it was taken in January 2011. Back then it showed:

Mitt Romney...............24%
Sarah Palin...............19%
Mike Huckabee...............17%
Newt Gingrich...............11%

Of course it is still very early and no candidate has yet been able to separate himself/herself from the pack. But it is interesting that Trump's newfound popularity seems to have come mainly at the expense of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Both have dropped precipitously in this poll since January.

But while Trump's birtherism has played well among the Republicans (especially the teabaggers), it has not done his TV show any good at all. Some have said he is just playing at being a candidate so boost the viewership of his TV show (The Apprentice). If that is true, then it has been an abysmal failure. He has lost at least 2 million viewers in the last couple of weeks (when he became very public with his birther views). How can that be? Well, it turns out that the TV show was more popular among liberals than conservatives. And his birther view (racism) is not selling well to the TV show demographic.

I doubt it will happen, but I would love to see the Republicans nominate Donald Trump or Sarah Palin (or even Michele Bachmann). It would not only make for a fun campaign, but would be the best present Democrats could get.