A Warning From The Iraqis

Many Americans seem to think the Iraq War is over now. It's not. It was far from over when Bush declared the "mission accomplished", and it didn't end when Obama withdrew some troops a few months ago. The media is not paying much attention to Iraq these days, but the truth is that we still have soldiers in harm's way in Iraq -- about 47,000 of them (not a small contingent).

This continued occupation of Iraq is justified by an agreement Bush pressured the Maliki government to sign in November 2008. That Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is supposedly a request by the Iraqis for the American soldiers to stay in Iraq until December 31, 2011. The Obama administration has been making noises lately that they might like to leave some kind of American presence in Iraq past that date. In order to do so, a new agreement would have to be signed. If there is not a new agreement, it would be illegal (and an act of war against Iraq) for American troops to remain.

The American government may think they could get Maliki to sign another agreement, but recent actions by powerful Shiite forces, especially Muqtada al-Sadr, make that very unlikely. The Shiite cleric may be the most powerful man in Iraq since he has an enormous following and could raise and rearm his "Mahdi Army" at a moments notice.

Muqtada al-Sadr has issued sort of an ultimatum to both the Americans and the Maliki government. All of the Americans must leave Iraq on December 31, or else. Through a spokesman he said, "The first thing we will do is escalate the military resistance activity and reactivate the Mahdi Army. . .Second is to escalate the peaceful and public resistance through sit-ins." He backed up this warning by organizing marches across Iraq involving hundreds of thousands of people.

It looks like this is no idle threat. Muqtada al-Sadr and his minions are tired of the American occupation. And if it doesn't end this year the U.S. will find itself in a renewed war in Iraq -- a conflict that the current 47,000 troops won't be able to effectively deal with. The choice is clear now -- either withdraw ALL the troops or send many more soldiers back to Iraq.

Since I don't think it will be politically possible to crank up the war in Iraq again with thousands of new troops, it looks like our occupation of that country will finally end at the end of this year. At least I hope that is the decision the Obama administration will make. But it's not a sure thing since so far he has just followed the Bush policy in that country.

The wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan need to come to an end. There is no real hope of victory (since it is mainly a "nation-building" effort -- not a true military war). The populations of both those countries must make their own political and social decisions. We should have learned by now we can't do it for them. The Iraqis have finally had enough of us, and the Afghans are probably not far from doing the same.

We need to end both of these wars. No real solutions can be found in either country as long as our troops remain in them.