Tide Is Turning Against The Republicans

The Republican Party was riding high after the last election. They were sure they had a mandate from the American people to force a return to their old failed "trickle down" economic policies, and maybe even go further. And the polls showed that while the people didn't really like what either party was doing, they gave the Republicans a slight edge.

But that was before a couple of things happened recently -- the Ryan Plan passed by the Republican House and the death of bin Laden (directed by President Obama). The latter seems to have given the White House a boost, while the former has given congressional Democrats their own boost. A lot of people were angered by the Ryan Plan, which would abolish Medicare and Medicaid (and use that money to give the rich more tax cuts).

Now the polls are starting to show some movement away from Republicans and toward Democrats. A recent CNN/Opinion Research poll (done between April 29th and May 1st of 1,034 adult Americans -- with a margin of error of 3 points) shows that registered voters now prefer a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in an election for Congress. This is the first time Democrats have been preferred in this poll since before the last election.

IN AN ELECTION FOR CONGRESS WOULD YOU VOTE FOR. . .
Democrat...............50%
Republican...............46%
Neither...............3%
No Opinion...............1%

It is not a wide margin -- at least not yet. But it does show movement toward the Democrats and away from the Republicans. This is backed up by another poll -- the AP/GfK Poll (done between May 5th and May 9th of 1,001 adults - with a 4.2 point margin of error). Since even before the election the people have had about an equally low opinion of both parties in the U.S. Congress (with numbers in the low thirties for both). But now the numbers for the Democrats have started to improve, while the Republicans remain mired in the low thirties. Here's what the numbers are now:

CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS

strongly approve...............4%
somewhat approve...............24%
lean approve...............3%
neither...............1%
lean disapprove...............3%
somewhat disapprove...............27%
strongly disapprove...............37%

Total Approve...............32%
Total Disapprove...............66%

CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS

strongly approve...............9%
somewhat approve...............30%
lean approve...............3%
neither...............1%
lean disapprove...............2%
somewhat disapprove...............25%
strongly disapprove...............29%

Total Approve...............43%
Total Disapprove...............56%

Again it's not a huge difference, but it shows definite and significant movement toward the Democrats. This is also born out in the District 26 race for Congress in New York. This is a Republican district and the Republican candidate was expected to easily win it. But the Republican, Jane Corwin, made the mistake of coming out in favor of the Ryan Plan (which would abolish Medicare). The race is now a dead heat and both parties are pumping tons of money into it. The Democrats have a real chance of winning it now.

House Republicans passing the Ryan Plan almost unanimously has turned out to be a huge blunder. They have just verified what the Democrats have been saying about them all along. And what's crazy is the House Republicans are not backing off and admitting they were wrong. The Democrats will ride this blunder all the way to November 2012.

The numbers for the president have also improved, showing him with majority approval for the first time in a couple of months:

PRESIDENT OBAMA

strongly approve...............32%
somewhat approve...............23%
lean approve...............6%
neither...............1%
lean disapprove...............4%
somewhat disapprove...............10%
strongly disapprove...............25%

Total Approve...............60%
Total Disapprove...............39%

Deserves To Be Re-elected...............53%
Deserves To Be Voted Out...............43%
Don't Know...............3%
Refused...............1%

Both the president and congressional Democrats have received a bump in the polls. While some of it is undoubtably due to the killing of bin Laden, I think most of it is actually due to the Republican blunder in passing and continuing to support the Ryan Plan. This is born out by an increase in the president's approval rating on his handling of the economy. For the first time in months, he is showing majority approval.

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY

Approve...............52%
Disapprove...............47%
Don't Know...............1%