Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Bachmann Looks Strong In Spite Of Gaffes

Michele Bachmann, like her Republican cohort Sarah Palin, has committed a series of historical gaffes. A couple of months ago she told a crowd of New Hampshire Republicans that the shot that started the Revolutionary War had happened in their state (even though any school child knows it happened in Lexington, Massachusetts). She then compounded that by talking about how hard the Founding Fathers worked to eliminate slavery (even though they enshrined it in the Constitution by making slaves count as only 3/5 of a person, and half of them were actually slave owners).

Her gaffes were so egregious that a 10th grader challenged her to a debate or test on history, and many of us figured the high school sophomore would win if it had taken place. George Stephanopoulos (ABC News) gave Bachmann the opportunity to correct herself about the Founding Fathers and slavery the other day. Instead, she just made it worse by committing another historical gaffe. She named John Quincy Adams as a Founding Father who worked against slavery. She was evidently ignorant of the fact that John Quincy Adams was only 9 years old during the Revolutionary War (and was not a participant in founding this nation).

And she's not much better with more modern history. She tried to make herself look better the other day by comparing herself to John Wayne, saying they were both born in Waterloo, Iowa. The problem with that is that actor John Wayne was not born in Waterloo, but Winterset. The only John Wayne who lived in Waterloo was serial killer John Wayne Gacy. It might be time for Bachmann to hire a historian for her staff to check her speeches for obvious errors (or at least someone with the ability to "google" facts on the internet).

But Bachmann's rather obvious lack of knowledge about American history doesn't seem to have hurt her with her supporters. Maybe those teabaggers don't want a candidate who's smarter than they are. A recent Gallup Poll (done June 13th through June 26th of 1,500 Republicans nationwide, with a margin of error of 3 points) shows her support remains strong among her supporters.

This poll doesn't try to guage where the candidates stand in a percentage of the vote, but instead it tries to guage the strength of a candidates support. It does this by gauging voter familiarity with a candidate (name recognition - NR) and the Positive Intensity Score of each candidate. The Positive Intensity Score (PIS) is figured by subtracting the unfavorable percentage from the favorable percentage of those who are familiar with the candidate. The higher the PIS number is, the stronger the candidate's support is. Here are the numbers for each candidate:

Michele Bachmann
PIS...............24
NR...............69%

Herman Cain
PIS...............24
NR...............46%

Sarah Palin
PIS...............17
NR...............95%

Mitt Romney
PIS...............15
NR...............85%

Rick Santorum
PIS...............10
NR...............49%

Tim Pawlenty
PIS...............8
NR...............57%

Ron Paul
PIS...............6
NR...............77%

Gary Johnson
PIS...............3
NR...............21%

Jon Huntsman
PIS...............2
NR...............39%

Newt Gingrich
PIS...............2
NR...............86%

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