GOP Says No To Palin - Still No Favorite In Race

There are those who think Sarah Palin's recent road trip was designed to improve her ratings and set up her entrance into the Republican presidential nomination race. If so, it was a miserable failure. Her ignorance over a bit of history any school child knows (the ride of Paul Revere) just reaffirmed the belief of most Americans that's she's just not smart enough to be president.

But the trip probably wouldn't have done much good even if it had gone as she planned. A recent poll done by CBS News (completed June 3rd through June 7th of 1,024 adults nationwide with a margin of error of 3 points) shows that two-thirds of the general public (66%) don't want Palin to enter the presidential race, while only 25% would like to see her run.

That would be bad enough, but it gets worse. The same poll shows that a majority of Republicans (54%) and half of all teabaggers (50%) also think she should not run. Only 34% of Republicans and 38% of teabaggers think she should enter the race. This is bad news for Palin. The teabaggers are her natural base, and if 50% of them don't want her to run then her chances of actually getting the nomination are sinking fast. Palin also has the highest unfavorability rating among Republicans of any candidate (although Newt Gingrich is close).

Some may think that with Palin doing so poorly (and Huckabee and Daniels deciding not to run), Mitt Romney would be poised to jump out into a clear lead and separate himself from the pack. And a recent Quinnipiac University poll recently lent some credence to that notion. Their poll (done May 31st through June 6th with a margin of error of 3.4 points) showed Romney with a 10 point lead -- 25% to second place Sarah Palin who had 15%.

But 25% is still nothing to be proud of, and another poll dashed any hope that he had begun to separate himself from the field. A Reuters/Ipsos poll (taken June 4th through June 6th with a 3 point margin of error) showed Romney finishing second to Sarah Palin. Palin had 22% and Romney had 20%. It's clear that the race for the Republican nomination is still wide open. No one has yet seized the public's imagination and there is still room for new candidates to enter the race (which Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry are likely to do -- although their ability to excite voters is doubtful).

Let me finish with an odd little poll from the good people at Public Policy Polling. They decided to see just how favorably the Republican candidates were viewed by the people in their own home states. Amazingly, only one of the candidates had a higher favorability number in his/her home state than an unfavorability number (and that candidate, Gary Johnson, is the longest of shots to get the nomination). How's the general public supposed to like these candidates when more people in their home state dislike them than like them? Here are their home state numbers:

GARY JOHNSON (New Mexico)
favorable...............44%
unfavorable...............32%
difference...............+12

NEWT GINGRICH (Georgia)
favorable...............39%
unfavorable...............47%
difference...............-8

RICK PERRY (Texas)
favorable...............42%
unfavorable...............50%
difference...............-8

HERMAN CAIN (Georgia)
favorable...............28%
unfavorable...............36%
difference...............-8

RICK SANTORUM (Pennsylvania)
favorable...............37%
unfavorable...............47%
difference...............-10

MITT ROMNEY (Massachusetts)
favorable...............40%
unfavorable...............52%
difference...............-12

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)
favorable...............40%
unfavorable...............53%
difference...............-13

Sarah Palin (Alaska)
favorable...............33%
unfavorable...............58%
difference...............-25

Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)
favorable...............33%
unfavorable...............59%
difference...............-26