Could Romney Lose New Hampshire ?

What we've been hearing from the campaign of Mitt Romney recently is that he's considering skipping the Iowa caucuses (or at least minimizing his effort there). His campaign seems to be accepting the verdict of many political pundits that in all likelihood the winner in Iowa will be Michele Bachmann (who was born in Iowa and currently lives in a neighboring state). They want to instead put their efforts into winning the New Hampshire primary, and using that win as a catapult into other primary states (saying they didn't really compete in Iowa).

And polls in the recent weeks have shown that may actually be a viable plan for Romney. Most of the polls have shown him to be far ahead of the other candidates in New Hampshire. At least up until now they have. But a new poll from Public Policy Polling, one of the more reputable polling organizations, shows that Romney could be showing some signs of weakness in New Hampshire.

The poll (taken between July 3rd and July 5th of Republican primary voters) shows that while Romney has remained fairly steady in his numbers, Michele Bachmann is surging in the state. When the same poll was done in April Bachmann only got 4% of voters, but her numbers are now up to 18%. Here is how the state currently stacks up:

Mitt Romney...............25%
Michele Bachmann...............18%
Sarah Palin...............11%
Ron Paul...............9%
Herman Cain...............7%
Rick Perry...............7%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Tim Pawlenty...............6%
Newt Gingrich...............4%
Someone else...............7%

If Sarah Palin is taken out of the mix, the numbers look like this:

Mitt Romney...............28%
Michele Bachmann...............21%
Ron Paul...............9%
Rick Perry...............9%
Herman Cain...............7%
Jon Huntsman...............7%
Tim Pawlenty...............6%
Newt Gingrich...............4%
Someone else...............9%

Now you may think that Mitt Romney has a credible lead, and you would be right -- 7% is very good right now. But consider the following. The race seems to be developing into a two-person one, and of those two people only one is surging in popularity at the present time -- Michele Bachmann. And most of her support is coming from the teabagger wing of the party (which was strong enough to take control of the party in New Hampshire). Among the teabaggers, Bachmann actually leads Romney by 25% to 16%.

What if Bachmann scores a big win in the Iowa caucuses (a distinct possibility) and the other teabagger candidates do poorly there (Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, Pawlenty, Palin, etc.)? And what if those candidates drop out or the voters no longer see them as viable candidates? Are their votes going to go to Romney or Bachmann? The obvious answer is Bachmann. As long as they have a teabagger alternative the teabagger voters are not going to support Romney.

If this scenario happens, it is a good possibility that Bachmann could beat Romney in New Hampshire (or at least come close enough to take the wind out of a Romney win). And if Bachmann comes out of both Iowa and New Hampshire with more delegates (or tied in delegates) than Romney, she could have the advantage going into the next primaries -- and the teabaggers would be encouraged to vote for one of their own in those states.

Can Romney lose New Hampshire? I believe it is a possibility. And that would significantly increase the chances of the Republicans nominating a rabid far right-wing teabagger as their presidential candidate. Just the thought of that makes me giddy.