Wednesday, August 10, 2011

GOP Shoots Themselves In Foot Over Debt Ceiling

I wrote a couple of days ago that I thought the Republicans had hurt themselves with their intransigence and ridiculous demands in the debt ceiling fiasco. While the American public wanted Congress to bring the deficit under control, they wanted it done by the parties compromising and agreeing to a balanced approach of budget cuts coupled with some revenue enhancement (higher taxes for the rich).

Even though poll after poll showed this, the Republicans ignored them and demanded massive government cuts while protecting the rich from having to pay their fair share in taxes. But it seems the Republicans in Congress can't hear anyone but their own teabagger base. However, a new CNN/ORC International Poll shows they need to start listening to the public at large because it's starting to cost them some support.

The poll, taken between August 5th and 7th (after the debt deal was concluded), shows a statistically significant drop in support for the GOP in just the last month. here are the numbers:

DO YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OPINION OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

(July 18-20)
yes...............41%
no...............55%
no opinion...............3%

(August 5-7)
yes...............33%
no...............59%
no opinion...............7%

In July the Republicans had a -14 approval rating, but in August (after the debt ceiling debacle) that had dropped to a -26 rating. That's a 12 point drop, well exceeding the 3 point margin of error, and a large drop for only about a three week difference in time. Since the only thing of any significance that happened in that three week period was the debt ceiling debate, it becomes obvious that the American people did not like the Republican performance in that debate at all.

And while the approval for Republicans was dropping, the same could not be said for Democrats. They showed a small, but statistically insignificant, rise in their approval rating. Here are the Democratic numbers:

DO YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OPINION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?

(July 18-20)
yes...............45%
no...............49%
no opinion...............5%

(August 5-7)
yes...............47%
no...............47%
no opinion...............6%

The Democrats had a -2 approval rating in July, and that improved to an even rating in August. While that 2 point improvement is within the 3 point margin of error, it does show that the American public does not hold the Democrats responsible for the political games that were played with the debt ceiling (and near default).

The public might not be thrilled with the Democrats, but they give them a 14 point higher approval rating. I think they like where the Democrats say they stand on the issues (especially job creation and taxing the rich some more), but they would like to see the Democrats take a firm stand and stop caving in to the Republicans. Americans just don't respect wimpy and indecisive behavior from anyone -- even someone they generally agree with.

And a couple of questions later in the survey shows that the public is ready for a change. They are not happy with Congress at all, and considering the above numbers, that probably means they are not happy with Republicans. Look at these amazing numbers:

DO MOST MEMBERS OF CONGRESS DESERVE TO BE RE-ELECTED?

All Americans
yes...............25%
no...............70%
no opinion...............5%

Registered Voters
yes...............23%
no...............72%
no opinion...............5%

Those are some pretty bad numbers for Congress. They are higher than even in years when Congress showed a large turnover like 1992, 1994, 2008, and 2010. This could be the beginning of another voter revolt that will once again flip the House of Representatives. This is backed up by the results shown when people were asked about their own congressional representative. For the first time in years people are saying no to their own representative. Here are those numbers:

DOES THE REP. IN YOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT DESERVE RE-ELECTION?

All Americans (saying yes)
Currently...............41%
8/2010...............52%
2/2010...............50%

Registered Voters (saying yes)
Currently...............45%
8/2010...............51%
2/2010...............51%
10/2008...............55%
10/2006...............52%

A golden opportunity is forming for the Democrats to snatch the House of Representatives back from the Republicans. But they need to step up and show the voters that they deserve it -- and the way to do that is to take a hard stand for real job creation. Even if they can't get it through the currently Republican-dominated House, they need to show this is a priority they consider more important than any other. They need to stop caving in to Republicans and making life worse for most Americans.

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