Is Bird Flu Coming Back ?

The first round of avain influenza (H5N1), commonly called the "bird flu", hit a few years ago (in about 2005-2006). It caused quite a scare since about 60% of humans known to have contrated it have died, and since it is carried by birds there is little way to contain it in one place. Fortunately it did not develop a human strain that could easily be transmitted from human to human, and therefore did not develop into a true pandemic (although there have been 331 deaths from 565 confirmed cases since 2003).

But it has not gone away. And in a certain group of countries it remained endemic (Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Egypt, India, and Indonesia). But the incidence of bird flu has been growing in those countries, and has now spread to other countries thought to be free of it (Israel, Palestine, Bulgaria, Rumania, Nepal, and Mongolia). It has reached the point where the World Health Organization is starting to worry that there will be a new (and probably world-wide) outbreak of the disease.

There have been 800 cases reported in 2010-2011 so far, and health experts think there could be a serious outbreak during the Fall and Winter of 2011-2012. And the virus has mutated. The vaccines developed a few years ago do not have an effect on the mutated virus. Another scary thought is that the mutated virus may spread among humans easier this time than it did last time.

This is just the kind of possibly bad news we did not need in this time of recession, unemployment, tornados, earthquakes, hurricanes, and drought. All we need is a new pandemic to pile on top of our many other problems.