Obama Still Has A Good Start On 2012

For several months now President Obama's job approval nationwide has been below 50%. It's not a lot below the 50% mark, usually in the 46% to 49% range, but it is enough to make some wonder if he is vulnerable in the 2012 election. But one thing we have to remember is that the under 50% approval rating is a nationwide average, and does not apply to every state.

A new poll from the Gallup organization shows this clearly. The poll (tracked for the first six months of this year with a nationwide random sample of 89,965 adults) shows that there are 16 states and the District of Columbia where the president's job approval rating is at or above 50%. Here are those places (with their electoral votes in parentheses):

District of Columbia...............83% (3)

Connecticut...............60% (7)

Maryland...............59% (10)

Delaware...............59% (3)

New York...............57% (29)

Massachusetts...............57% (11)

Hawaii...............56% (4)

Vermont...............54% (3)

Illinois...............54% (20)

New Jersey...............54% (14)

California...............53% (55)

Minnesota...............52% (10)

Rhode Island...............50% (4)

Maine...............50% (4)

Michigan...............50% (16)

Washington...............50% (12)

Wisconsin...............50% (10)

That adds up to 215 electoral votes -- not enough to win but a pretty good start (and those are 2012 electoral votes, not 2008 electoral votes). Add to that the fact that the Republican Party is even more unpopular than the president in a bunch of other states where Obama scores just under 50%, and it certainly looks like it's going to be an uphill climb for any Republican to beat him (even Romney).

Of course, it's still a long way to November of 2012 and a lot could happen. But at this point I think there are two main things the president needs to worry about. The first would be a substantial rise in the unemployment rate, and that is something that could happen (with the massive government cuts he agreed to and no real chance of a substantial job stimulus bill before the election).

His second problem would be a huge defection of progressives in the election. This is also a possibility since the president has done very little to advance a progressive agenda, and has given in to the congressional Republicans far too many times. And the president has done very little to reach out to progressives, which is sad because they are the very folks who helped him win the Democratic nomination in 2008.