Perry Drops Like A Rock In The Polls

On the same day that Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul trounced all the other candidates in the Iowa straw poll, Rick Perry decided to toss his 10-gallon hat in the ring. Perry's candidacy immediately took all of the wind out of Bachmann's sails and she quickly dropped in the polls. Paul also slid back under double digits. Both candidates are now struggling just to stay in the race (although Paul probably has enough money to last a while longer).

Perry immediately shot up to first place in all the national polls (even passing former frontrunner Mitt Romney). Many in the teabagger wing of the party thought they had finally found their candidate, and visions of victory started dancing in their feeble minds. But then the truth about Perry started coming out. Before he entered the race most Americans knew little more about Perry than he was the governor of Texas. Now they learned that he thought Social Security & Medicare were unconstitutional, he supported in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, he opposed an Arizona-like immigration law for Texas, and he made a mess of the Texas economy creating a $27 billion deficit.

But perhaps as bad as anything was the fact that he's a terrible debater (a fact any Texan could have told them if they'd asked). It became obvious that Perry just can't think on his feet, and he looked bad in all the Republican debates (which meant he would look bad against the president in a debate in the general election). Republicans began to have doubts about their new savior.

It started in Florida, where he got his tail kicked by Herman Cain. But that was just the first chink in his armor. He began to fall in the national polls. Just look at the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll (taken between September 29th and October 2nd of a national sample of 1,002 adults with a margin of error of 4 points -- 6 points for only Republicans). That poll shows that Perry has dropped at least 13 points in the last month. Here are the results of that poll for both September and October:

SEPTEMBER POLL
Rick Perry...............29%
Mitt Romney...............25%
Ron Paul...............10%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Newt Gingrich...............6%
Herman Cain...............4%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............1%

OCTOBER POLL
Mitt Romney...............25%
Herman Cain...............16%
Rick Perry...............16%
Ron Paul...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............7%
Newt Gingrich...............7%
Rick Santorum...............2%
Jon Huntsman...............1%

Perry is not out of the race, but he has fallen back down into the pack. The most interesting thing is that Mitt Romney has not benefitted from Perry's fall at all. Romney didn't gain a single point from Perry's drop. That tells me that he's still not accepted by the teabagger wing of the party. That is verified by the fact that all of the support that Perry lost seems to have gone to another far right-winger (and the man who beat him in Florida) -- Herman Cain.

I still can't see Cain winning the Republican nomination -- there are just too many racists in the Republican base (and Cain is as crazy as Bachmann). But Romney has not been able to get above of around 25% for many months now. That leaves both the establishment Republicans and the teabagger base both looking for a candidate they can agree on. And there doesn't seem to be one in the race -- at least not yet. Many were hoping that Chris Christie of New Jersey could be that candidate, but he took himself out of contention yesterday.

Sarah Palin? Many teabaggers would like to see her run, but a lot of other Republicans wouldn't. This same poll had 66% of Republicans saying they don't want her to run (and even giving her the full 6 point margin of error, there are 6 out of 10 Republicans opposed to her candidacy).

There are a couple of other Republicans that could jump in at this late date and make things really interesting. Both would be strong candidates. They are Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani. Rumor has it that people have recently approached Huckabee about re-entering the race, and Giuliani has just been waiting to be asked by party leaders. I think either one might do it if they could be assured they would have adequate funds.

But time is running out. Candidates must begin qualifying for state ballots at the end of this month, and with all the states moving their primaries up it looks like the primary voting and caucuses could start about the first week in January of 2012. That's only about 3 months away.