Romney's Support Is Looking Very Weak

When the campaign for the Republican nomination got cranked up, Mitt Romney was the leader -- and it was assumed by many that he would be the eventual nominee. He has been in the lead almost the whole time (except for a short period right after Perry jumped into the race), and he's still the candidate the establishment Republicans would like to see (since he polls better than any of the others against the president. He is also the choice of the Wall Street bankers -- having raised more Wall Street money than any other candidate by far.

But it won't be establishment Republicans or the Wall Street bankers who choose the GOP nominee this time. The Republicans cast their lot with the teabaggers right after President Obama took office, and now those same teabaggers control the party in many states and form the base of the party. This worked well for the GOP in 2010 because the teabaggers were excited and ready to vote when most others weren't, but the teabagger control may come back to bite the Republicans in the butt next year.

That's because the teabaggers just haven't been able to warm up to Mitt Romney. They simply don't accept him as one of their own, and they don't trust him. It may be because he's a mormon, or because he's the choice of Wall Street (the teabaggers hated the Bush bailout of Wall Street), or because he has flipped his position on gay/lesbian rights, global warming, and abortion. Or because his health care plan looks nearly identical to "ObamaCare". Or maybe it's a mixture of all of the above.

But whatever the reason, the fact is that Romney has been unable to get his support among GOP voters above the mid-twenties mark (and less than half of those voters say they are "sure" they'll vote for Romney). The teabaggers are still looking for someone else to support -- anyone else, and the flavor of this month is Herman Cain.

Romney's strategy in this campaign was to do well enough in the first few primaries and caucuses to get a substantial lead, which he thought would then bring the voters flocking to him as the prohibitive favorite. But his weak support is casting doubt on that strategy, and three new early state polls show he may not have that substantial lead after the early states have made their choice. New Insider Advantage Polls done for Newsmax in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida show Romney without a huge lead. Here are those polls:

IOWA
Cain...............26.4%
Romney...............18.1%
Gingrich...............12.1%
Bachmann...............11.0%
Paul...............9.6%
Perry...............5.8%
Huntsman...............0.9%
Someone else...............3.0%
No opinion...............13.1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney...............38.8%
Cain...............24.2%
Paul...............11.1%
Bachmann...............5.4%
Gingrich...............5.2%
Huntsman...............4.5%
Perry...............1.8%
Someone else...............1.8%
No opinion...............7.3%

FLORIDA
Romney...............32.6%
Cain...............30.2%
Gingrich...............11.7%
Perry...............2.9%
Paul...............2.7%
Bachmann...............1.6%
Huntsman...............0.2%
Someone else...............1.8%
No opinion...............16.3%

Right now it looks like Perry will emerge from the early states with at most a third of the delegates. Cain would also have about a third, and the rest of the candidates would split up the last third -- enough to keep a few of them in the race a while longer. Instead of the race being virtually over by the end of March, it now looks like it could drag on until June, or maybe even be finally decided at the convention.

Romney is still probably the smart bet (after all, he's got a lot of Wall Street money to spend), but I wouldn't bet the farm on that right now. There's still time for Romney (or someone else) to have a surge in the polls, but not a lot of time. The Iowa caucus has been set for January 3rd (only two and a half months away), and New Hampshire is threatening to have their primary in December.

It's still a very interesting race.