Ron Paul Is Still "King Of The Straw Polls"

Ron Paul has had a problem scoring much more than 8-11% in any of the national polls on the Republican presidential field for 2012, but there is little doubt that he is the "king" of the straw polls -- at least for this year. Prior to this weekend Paul had won three straw polls and virtually tied in a fourth.

It started last February when the right-wingers at the CPAC gathering held the first straw poll. Paul won it easily. Then he went on to win straw polls in South Carolina and California. He finished second to Michele Bachmann in the Iowa straw poll, but was so close that it could be considered a virtual tie. This weekend Paul won another straw poll.

This weekend the Family Research Council (an ultra-right-wing hate group) held their Values Voter Summit. The folks attending this gathering are not the "establishment" Republicans. They are the ultra-right fundamentalist teabaggers -- the people who make up most of the Republican base these days.

Rumor had it that these folks were taking a fresh look at Mitt Romney since Perry and Bachmann have tumbled in the polls and Palin declined to run. But they must not have liked what they saw when they took that second look, because when it came to showing their support they turned their backs on him. Ron Paul easily won the straw poll. Here is how the straw poll voting of the 1,983 conference attendees turned out:

Ron Paul...............732 (36.9%)
Herman Cain...............447 (22.5%)
Rick Santorum...............323 (16.3%)
Rick Perry...............167 (8.4%)
Michele Bachmann...............157 (7.9%)
Mitt Romney...............88 (4.4%)
Others...............69 (3.5%)

A few things are evident from the outcome of this straw poll (even though it is probably not predictive of who will finally win the Republican nomination). First, Mitt Romney may be popular with the party establishment, but he is still having a lot of trouble getting the teabagger vote.

They don't like the health care package he signed while governor of Massachusetts (because it looks to much like the plan passed by Obama and the Democrats). They are also not buying his stands on global warming and gay rights (although he has flip-flopped on both in an effort to appeal to them). But perhaps most important, they don't like that he's a mormon (which many of them don't even consider to be christian).

Second, the straw poll shows just how far the candidacies of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann have fallen. The kind of people voting in this straw poll, the teabagger fundamentalists, are the very people that both Perry and Bachmann were counting on to propel them to the Republican nomination. The fact that they couldn't even get a double-digit percentage doesn't bode well for their campaigns. Bachmann is probably finished, but Perry does have a pretty good amount of money he was able to raise before he started dropping in the polls. We'll have to wait and see if he can buy his way back into the race.

Third, the teabaggers have not yet found a candidate they can unite behind. Palin was the early favorite, but she didn't have the guts for a campaign and now is out. Perry and Bachmann were both "flavors of the month" for a short while, but the popularity of both has dropped precipitiously. Romney is a non-starter for this group, and the Gingrich campaign has been dead for a while now (he just hasn't accepted it yet).

That leaves them with Ron Paul, Herman Cain, and Rick Santorum -- and all three of them have disagreeable-looking warts (at least as far as the teabaggers are concerned). Paul has the problem that not all of his views coincide with teabagger views (such as his anti-war stance and his anti-drug war stance), and he refuses to change to appeal to them. That's anathema to the teabaggers, who demand 100% agreement.

Rick Santorum has the right craziness but is just not viewed as a winner. Every poll shows if he was the nominee, President Obama would beat him like he was a drum. Herman Cain has exactly the kind of craziness that the teabaggers love, but he also has the wrong skin color. Too many of the teabaggers are already aghast at having an African-American living in the White House, and I just can't see them nominating one of their own (even if they do agree with his insane views).

That means this is still a very interesting race. No one can win the Republican nomination without at least a large hunk of the teabagger vote, and most of them are still trying to figure out who to support. Will they hold their noses and vote for Romney? Will they give Perry or Bachmann a second chance? Or will they finally pick between Paul, Santorum, or Cain? I don't think anybody knows right now.

But time is running out, and they'll have to decide very soon. That's because the caucuses and primaries are going to start a good bit earlier than they normally do. Here's what the early schedule looks like right now:

Iowa...............January 3
New Hampshire...............Not set yet, but will be before January 14
Nevada...............January 14
South Carolina...............January 21
Florida...............January 31