Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Will Democrats Get Their Fondest Wish ?

For months now the Democrats have been hoping that the Republicans would give them the wonderful present of nominating one of their truly crazy candidates to be their presidential nominee. It not that they don't think President Obama could beat Mitt Romney -- I think most Democrats think he would. But if one of the real nut-jobs were to get the nomination, it would not only make the election much easier, it could also have a down-ballot effect of putting many more Democrats into office.

Democrats have kept their fingers crossed as one after another of the crazies took their turn at leading the Republican race -- from Donald Trump to Michele Bachmann & Ron Paul to Rick Perry to Herman Cain. All of them would have been wonderful candidates -- in Democratic eyes. But they all fell by the wayside. However, hope is not lost.


With only six weeks left until the Iowa caucuses, a new champion has emerged to snatch the race lead from Mitt Romney. And this candidate -- Newt Gingrich -- could easily fill the fantasies of Democrats. Because he truly is a flawed candidate who will turn off a lot of voters in the general election. He has been married three times, having been unfaithful to both of his first two wives, and leaving them after finding out they were seriously ill. He is the only House Speaker to have been disciplined for ethics violations, and was driven from that job by members of his own party.

Then after leaving the House and bad-mouthing mortgage giant Freddie Mac, he accepts $1.6 million to be their lobbyist in Congress (and violating the law by not registering as a lobbyist). Now he is compounding those problems by revealing some of his truly bizarre political beliefs -- like eliminating child labor laws and privatizing Social Security.

This guy is not only a true far right-wing nut-job, he is also an ethically-challenged hypocrite. He has Democrats not only crossing their fingers, but their toes as well. Could they really be lucky enough to have the Republicans nominate Newt? Well, three new polls show it could definitely happen. The teabaggers seem ready to accept this ethical black-hole, since most of them believe anyone is better than Mitt Romney.

First up is the Gallup Poll. Gallup does things a little differently, by revealing what they call a Positive Intensity Score (PIS). The PIS is determined by subtracting those who have a highly unfavorable view of the candidate from those with a highly favorable view. The resulting number shows the depth of a candidate's support (and the higher the number, the stronger the candidate). Here are Gallup's latest Positive Intensity Scores:

Newt Gingrich...............+20 (up from a low of +1)
Herman Cain...............+14 (down from a high of +34)
Mitt Romney...............+11 (down from a high of +20)
Rick Santorum...............+6
Ron Paul...............+2 (down from a high of +16)
Rick Perry...............+2 (down from a high of +25)
Michele Bachmann...............+1 (down from a high of +24)
Jon Huntsman...............-2

Next is the CNN/ORC International Poll. This poll was taken between November 18th and 20th, and has a margin of error of 5 points. It showed:

Newt Gingrich...............24%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Herman Cain...............17%
Rick Perry...............11%
Ron Paul...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............5%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............3%

And finally we have the newest Quinnipiac University Poll. The poll was done between November 14th and 20th, with a margin of error of 3 points. It showed:

Newt Gingrich...............26%
Mitt Romney...............22%
Herman Cain...............14%
Ron Paul...............6%
Rick Perry...............6%
Michele Bachmann...............4%
Rick Santorum...............2%
Jon Huntsman...............2%
Don't know...............19%

Like I said, it's still six weeks until the official voting starts and a lot could still happen. But right now it's looking good for Democrats, who might actually get their fondest wish.

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