Can Congress Be Flipped In 2012 ?

In 2010, gridlock was pretty much assured in Washington as voters, unhappy with the economy, flipped the House of Representatives from Democratic control to Republican control. I think the intention of the voting public was to shake things up in Washington and convince politicians that it was time to work together to solve our economic problems and create jobs. I say that because poll after poll has shown the majority of voters are tired of partisanship and want the two parties to compromise on some real solutions.

But instead of getting Congress to work in a bipartisan way, the election of 2010 had just the opposite effect -- it increased the partisan attitude of many Washington politicians. These politicians, especially Republicans, have put party ideology over what is best for the country and most of its citizens. And the voters are angry -- very angry.

As the chart above shows, the Gallup Poll shows that a record number of people think the members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected. About 76% of the general public says this -- and that's 11 points higher than in 2010, when the Congress flipped over to the Republicans. The public is in a "throw the bums out" mood, and it seems to be grower stronger with each passing month (it was 70% back in August).

The one statistic that can give a little solace to incumbents is that 53% of the people in this poll said their own congressman should be re-elected. But even that slim majority is on a downward trend according to the poll, and 53% is a lot lower than the percentage that normally feels their own congressman should be re-elected -- the normal percentage would be 60% or more. It wouldn't take too much more unhappiness among voters to make that 53% turn into a minority.

Add to this the fact that the most angry voter demographic is Independents. While 68% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans think most congressmen shouldn't be re-elected, a whopping 82% of Independents are opposed to the current members of Congress. We can expect most Republicans to vote for the Republican candidate and most Democrats to vote for the Democratic candidate in their own district. That means, especially in close districts (which are the districts the Republicans were able to flip in 2010), the Independents will determine the winner. And that could be bad news for Republicans, if those Independents vote against incumbents in anywhere near that 82% number.

Could the House flip again in 2012? It absolutely could. The voters are angry over the continuing recession and the lack of effective job creation. If the Democrats are smart, they will continually remind voters that it was the Republicans who voted to abolish Medicare, who want to privatize Social Security, who want to abolish or severely restrict the EPA, who wants to cut funds for education (or even abolish the Dept. of Education), who want to slash funds to help the poor and the unemployed, and who want to give the rich & the corporations more massive tax cuts.

We're still eleven months away from the next general election, but the Democrats need to start beating the drum on those issues right now -- and not let up on that until election day on November 6th.