Four Days To Go And Iowa Is Still A Very Fluid Situation

There are only four more days until the state of Iowa holds its political caucuses. There is no doubt that the Democrats will easily give the president all of the state's delegates. But on the Republican side, there is nothing but doubt as to the outcome of next Tuesday's caucuses. The situation seems to change daily, and about 43% of Republican voters say they still might change their minds about who to support (and it's looking like some won't finally make up their mind until they actually arrive at the caucus).

I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen next Tuesday. The situation is as fluid and unpredictable as in any year I can remember. Romney seems to think he's gaining the upper hand, and is now planning to stay in Iowa for a victory party Tuesday night (before leaving for New Hampshire after a press conference on Wednesday morning). If he does win, it will be because several other candidates are splitting the teabagger/evangelical vote (a group that Romney still has been unable to effectively appeal to).

I still give Ron Paul as good a chance of winning as anyone, if for no other reason than he has the best organizational structure of any of the candidates (and he's even importing hundreds of young people to encourage his people to get to the caucuses). His supporters are also the most sure about who they are supporting.

But there really could be at least six candidates that come out of Iowa with some delegates. Both Perry and Bachmann seem to be improving their support somewhat (at the expense of Gingrich, who has fallen out of the lead), and even the mostly cellar-dwelling Santorum now seems to be somewhat surging (and is in double-digits for the first time). About the only candidate who stands no chance at all in Iowa is Jon Huntsman (who has done almost no campaigning there and is pinning his hopes on a good showing in New Hampshire).

There are three new polls out on the GOP race in Iowa. Here they are:

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL
(December 28)
Ron Paul...............17.3%
Mitt Romney...............17.2%
Newt Gingrich...............16.7%
Rick Santorum...............13.4%
Michele Bachmann...............11.8%
Rick Perry...............10.5%
Jon Huntsman...............2.8%
Someone else...............3.0%
No Opinion...............7.3%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL
(December 26-28)
Mitt Romney...............22%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Ron Paul...............16%
Rick Santorum...............11%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Other...............1%
Undecided...............9%

CNN/TIME/ORC POLL
(December 21-27)
Mitt Romney...............25%
Ron Paul...............22%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Rick Perry...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............1%
No opinion...............2%

CNN/TIME/ORC POLL also surveyed voters in New Hampshire. Their survey showed Mitt Romney with a substantial lead in that state, but even there at least 45% of Republican voters say they still might change their mind before primary day. Here is how their New Hampshire poll came out:

Mitt Romney...............44%
Ron Paul...............17%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Jon Huntsman...............9%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Michele Bachmann...............3%
Rick Perry...............2%
None...............1%
No opinion...............4%

While winning the New Hampshire primary would be a big moral victory for Romney, it's not going to get him many delegates. The state will only be able to send 12 delegates to the national convention in 2012 (so even a big victory there would only get Romney 5 or 6 delegates).