Wednesday, December 21, 2011

More Proof Of Newt's Fall

Yesterday I talked about Newt Gingrich's fal from Republican grace as he starts slipping in the polls. A Public Policy Polling survey had shown he had slipped from leading in Iowa all the way down to third place (behind Paul and Romney). Now a new poll has him doing even worse than that. The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Poll (done on December 18th of 391 caucus voters) shows Gingrich in fourth place. Here are the numbers:

Ron Paul...............23.9%
Mitt Romney...............18.2%
Rick Perry...............15.5%
Newt Gingrich...............12.9%
Michele Bachmann...............10.1%
Jon Huntsman...............3.8%
Rick Santorum...............2.9%
No opinion...............11.9%

Obviously the bloom is off the Gingrich rose, and he's falling in the polls as fast as Perry did when his lack of debate skills was exposed. It now looks like Ron Paul, who has the best organization in Iowa, may actually finish in first place in the Iowa caucuses -- but it is doubtful that any candidate will leave that state with a significant lead.

Instead, it's starting to look like the caucus votes will be divided roughly equal between several candidates. Lending credence to this is the fact that the governing board of the Family Leader, an influential right-wing fundamentalist group in the state, could not agree on a candidate and will therefore not be endorsing a candidate at all.

But it's not just Iowa where Gingrich's chances of being nominated are falling fast. There are three new nationwide polls that show Gingrich's significant lead has all but disappeared. Here they are:

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL
(December 15-18)
Newt Gingrich...............30%
Mitt Romney...............30%
Ron Paul...............15%
Rick Perry...............7%
Michele Bachmann...............7%
Jon Huntsman...............3%
Rick Santorum...............3%
None/no opinion...............5%

CBS NEWS POLL
(December 14-18)
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Ron Paul...............10%
Rick Perry...............6%
Michele Bachmann...............4%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............1%
Someone else...............19%
Undecided...............17%

CNN/ORC POLL
(December 16-18)
Newt Gingrich...............28%
Mitt Romney...............28%
Ron Paul...............14%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Rick Perry...............7%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Jon Huntsman...............2%
None/no opinion...............9%

As you can see, Gingrich has slipped in all the polls and no longer has a lead. He is currently tied with Romney, but there is little doubt that in another week he will have slipped even further down in the polls.

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