It's Caucus Time In Iowa !

The waiting is over. The primary/caucus season has finally arrived, and it will start with tonight's Iowa caucuses. Until now we only had to polls to give us a clue as to what will happen in the GOP nominating process, but tonight we'll be able to see what the voters want (at least in one state). And that's a good thing, because I don't think anyone has a real idea of what will happen in the Iowa caucuses.

A friend is having a contest over at her blog, Juanita Jean's, where she's asking people to predict the order of finish and percentages of the top four candidates in Iowa. I predicted the following finish:
Ron Paul…..23%
Mitt Romney…..22%
Rick Santorum…..19%
Rick Perry…..13%

I'm sure I'll probably be proven wrong tonight because the Republican race in Iowa is still very fluid and unpredictable, and any prediction now is just a wild guess. I think a significant number of voters won't make up their minds until they get to their particular caucus. Will the Iowa caucuses show us the eventual winner of the Republican nomination? Probably not. This is just the start of a long process, and it's very likely that 5 or 6 of the candidates could leave Iowa with delegates.

Just to whet your appetite for tonight's caucuses, I provide you the results of the three latest Iowa polls:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING SURVEY
(December 26-27)
Ron Paul...............20%
Mitt Romney...............19%
Rick Santorum...............18%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Rick Perry...............10%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............2%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL
(December 29 - January 1)
Mitt Romney...............22%
Ron Paul...............17%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Other...............1%
Undecided...............7%

INSIDER ADVANTAGE/MAJORITY OPINION RESEARCH POLL
(January 1)
Mitt Romney...............22.7%
Ron Paul...............22.4%
Rick Santorum...............18.0%
Newt Gingrich...............16.1%
Rick Perry...............9.6%
Michele Bachmann...............5.8%
Jon Huntsman...............1.8%
Someone else...............1.3%
No opinion...............2.3%