It's Primary Day In New Hampshire

Now that the Iowa caucuses are over, it's time for the first primary of the year -- and as always, it will be in New Hampshire. It probably won't be the definitive primary that tells us who will be the eventual nominee. That's because it's on Romney's "home turf" and Independents are allowed to vote (and they are more likely to support a more moderate candidate like Romney). The polls have shown for quite a while now that Romney has a pretty safe lead in New Hampshire.

The thing to watch for in this primary is not whether Romney will win it (he will), but but by what kind of margin will he win. If the margin is a large one, Romney can still believe he is on track for the nomination (and hope it carries over to South Carolina and Florida). But if the margin is smaller than expected, that could be a signal that Romney's campaign is in trouble. For your amusement, here are the latest three polls for New Hampshire:

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL
Mitt Romney...............33%
Ron Paul...............20%
Jon Huntsman...............13%
Newt Gingrich...............11%
Rick Santorum...............10%
Rick Perry...............3%
Buddy Roemer...............3%

WMUR/UNIV. OF NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL
Mitt Romney...............41%
Ron Paul...............17%
Jon Huntsman...............11%
Rick Santorum...............11%
Newt Gingrich...............8%
Rick Perry...............1%
Buddy Roemer...............1%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
Mitt Romney...............35%
Ron Paul...............18%
Jon Huntsman...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............12%
Rick Santorum...............11%
Buddy Roemer...............3%
Rick Perry...............1%

It is interesting to note the differences in the polls. PPP has Romney at 35%, and this is where he's been in their poll for a while. WMUR also shows him doing the same as usual. But the Suffolk Poll says he has been losing support for several days now, and is down to 33% now. Who is right? We'll know tonight. Other than Romney, this is the primary that's very important for one other candidate -- Jon Huntsman. After skipping Iowa, Huntsman has to do very well tonight or his campaign is as good as dead (and personally, I think he needs to do better than any of the polls are currently showing).

I also find it interesting that Rick Perry can't seem to get any support in New Hampshire, with most polls putting him between 1% and 3%. If Perry can't get back on track by doing well in South Carolina on the 21st, then he might as well pack his bags and come back to Texas. That wouldn't be good for Texas, but it'll be great for the rest of America.