On To New Hampshire For The GOP

The Iowa caucuses are over now, and it's time for the nation's first primary. That primary will be held this coming Tuesday (January 10th) in New Hampshire. Iowa turned out to be a pretty disappointing start for supposed front-runner Mitt Romney (in spite of what his campaign says). He was only able to get about one-quarter of the Iowa vote and showed, as was expected, that he still is unable to make any inroads into the party's base majority -- the teabagger/evangelical element.

Romney should do much better in New Hampshire -- not because the teabagger/evangelicals have capitulated and are now willing to support him, but because of two other factors. First, New Hampshire is sort of home territory for Romney, bordering Massachusetts where he served as governor. Second, the primary is open to Independents, and it is likely these Independents will side with the establishment Republicans who are slightly more moderate. That should reduce the percentage of teabaggers in the primary's total vote.

And the polls are showing Romney is far ahead in New Hampshire. He's in the forty percent range (far higher than he's scored in any national poll). A better picture of how Republicans in general view Romney is what happens in the two polls following New Hampshire -- South Carolina on January 21st and Florida about a week later.

The Gingrich superPAC has taken a hint from Gingrich's "sour grapes" Iowa caucus night speech, and prepared a series of anti-Romney ads. It is doubtful that they will effect what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday, but they could hurt Romney south of the Mason-Dixon line. We'll just have to wait and see. We'll start looking at South Carolina polls later, but here are the results from the latest New Hampshire polls:

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL
Mitt Romney...............39%
Ron Paul...............17%
Newt Gingrich...............10%
Rick Santorum...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............9%
Rick Perry...............1%

FRANKLIN CENTER FOR GOVERNMENT & PUBLIC INTEGRITY POLL
Mitt Romney...............37%
Ron Paul...............19%
Jon Huntsman...............16%
Rick Santorum...............14%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Rick Perry...............1%
Other...............1%
Undecided...............4%

WMUR/UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL
Mitt Romney...............44%
Ron Paul...............20%
Newt Gingrich...............8%
Rick Santorum...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............7%
Rick Perry...............1%
Someone else................4%
Don't know...............8%

NBC/MARIST POLL
Mitt Romney...............42%
Ron Paul...............22%
Rick Santorum...............13%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............9%
Rick Perry...............1%
Undecided...............5%