Voter Enthusiasm

The 2010 election was a disaster for Democrats and progressives. The House of Representatives was lost to the Republicans, and the Senate majority of Democrats was reduced. The reason for this electoral disaster was voter enthusiam. The Republicans, especially the teabaggers, were very enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 off-year election, while the Democrats and progressives (disappointed by the failure of their majority to get much done) were not.

There have been those in the last few months who say the voter "enthusiasm gap" still exists, and will work to the advantage of the Republicans again in the 2012 election. But that may not be true at all, at least according to a recent survey done by Public Policy Polling. While this poll shows that Republicans in general have a small voter enthusiasm gap over Democrats in general (54% to 49%), that could be offset by both the larger number of Democrats and the high enthusiasm of certain groups within the Democratic Party.

The enthusiasm of the teabaggers is still high, registering about 62%, but that is offset by an equal enthusiasm among African-Americans (also 62%, and sure to grow larger as the election approaches). One largely Democratic group that many have said will not vote in as large a numbers as they did in 2008 are young people (age 18 to 29). That may be changing though, as they now show a 55% enthusiasm about voting in the next election. Liberals (progressives) also show a high enthusiasm, coming in at 54%.

The fact is that Democrats outnumber Republicans in this country, and if they show up to vote in large numbers (as they did in 2008) then good things happen for Democratic candidates. Fortunately, the enthusiasm gap is closing as the electorate starts to focus on the next election, and that is good for Democrats. I don't think we're going to see a repeat of 2010 at all in 2012. With a little hard work and luck, it could look a lot more like 2008.