GOP Race Is Still An Unpredictable Mess

(Cartoon above is by Nick Anderson in The Houston Chronicle.)

Like my father (and my grandparents), I have never voted for a Republican --  and I seriously doubt that I ever will. But that doesn't mean that I haven't found the Republican presidential nomination race this year very interesting -- and very entertaining. The race has had more leaders than there are candidates left in it (and I don't remember that happening in the past -- in either political party). There are four candidates left in  the race, but the race has had at least six different leaders in national polls (Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Cain, and Trump).

That's because the race has been very volatile from the start, and it still is. Just when a candidate starts looking very good, things change -- and the change can happen very quickly in the span of only a few days. Consider what has happened with the remaining candidates. Santorum scored the first win in Iowa. Then Romney took New Hampshire. That was followed by a Gingrich win in South Carolina. Then Romney came back and took Florida and Nevada. That was followed by Santorum winning in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado.  And finally we have Paul either tying or winning in Maine.

That sounds like the very definition of volatility to me. Santorum has assumed a 10 point lead nationally according to the Gallup Poll (which I posted yesterday), but that could easily change depending on what happens in the states that vote in the next two weeks. In fact, at the present time no candidate is assured of having a majority before the national convention -- bringing forth the possibility of the first "brokered" convention in many years.

That's not something that Republicans would like to see, but it is becoming a very real possibility. A recent Gallup Poll shows that nearly two out of three Republican voters (66%) would like to see a candidate win a majority of delegates before the national convention. The problem is that they cannot agree on who that candidate should be, and a majority of Republicans don't like any of the choices they are being offered. This same poll showed that only 44% of Republican voters are happy with the candidate field, while 55% wishes someone else was running.

That could well be the reason for the race's volatility, since a majority of voters are trying to decide on the best of four bad candidates. The next two states to vote are Michigan and Arizona (on February 28th), and both are displaying this same volatility. A few days ago Santorum had a large lead in Michigan, but Romney has been spending big (as well as his super-PAC) and two new polls show that race has tightened up and could go either way now.

The same is true of Arizona, where few polls have been taken. Two new polls are out -- one showing Romney with only a 3 point lead, and the other showing a 10 point lead. Romney has to be the favorite in Arizona, but not nearly as big a favorite as he was a couple of weeks ago. And with a week to go, anything could still happen there.

Then Super Tuesday comes one week after Arizona and Michigan vote. The two biggest states to vote that day are Ohio and Georgia. One poll a few days ago showed Santorum with a big lead in Ohio. Georgia was in the Gingrich camp, but a new poll shows that any of three candidates could now win there. meanwhile a new poll shows that Oklahoma is also in the Santorum camp. But don't bet your paycheck on the Super Tuesday outcome yet. That's two weeks away, and the way the GOP race has been going a lot could happen between now and than. Here are the latest state polls:

WE ASK AMERICA POLL (Michigan)
Rick Santorum...............29%
Mitt Romney...............29%
Ron Paul...............12%
Newt Gingrich...............10%
Undecided...............20%

MITCHELL/ROSETTA STONE POLL (Michigan)
Mitt Romney...............32%
Rick Santorum...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Ron Paul...............7%
Undecided...............22%

WE ASK AMERICA POLL (Arizona)
Mitt Romney...............37%
Rick Santorum...............27%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Ron Paul...............8%
Undecided...............13%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Arizona)
Mitt Romney...............36%
Rick Santorum...............33%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Ron Paul...............9%
Undecided...............7%

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL (Georgia)
Newt Gingrich...............25.9%
Mitt Romney...............23.9%
Rick Santorum...............22.8%
Ron Paul...............11.7%
Other/Undecided...............15.7%

SOONER POLL (Oklahoma)
Rick Santorum...............39%
Mitt Romney...............23%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............8%
Undecided...............13%